It’s August already? This Saratoga meet has been going by very fast as always, last week had some seconditis with 5 of my 9 top selections finishing in the exacta. Hoping to get back to some winners this week, looks like we’ll be fast and firm. Good card all around and some good stakes races, as always follow me on twitter for updates and changes @cjfelts87. Best of luck if you’re playing along!
Through 9 Daily Gallop writeups Total: 70-17-14-12 (24% win, 61% ITM)
Saratoga meet- Average ROI based off $2 win bet (22 races)- $2.60
$42 wagered, $57.20 won
Race 1 MCL 20k 3up, 6 furlongs
8-3-6-4
#8 Justice of War seems the horse to beat here and opens 8-5 ML, he drops in from msw company at Oaklawn, Steve Asmussen is 17% switching from msw to mcl, gets his top jock in Ricardo Santana and should be on the front end early. #3 Odie seems like the next logical contender, worked a bullet in 59 and 4 and tossing his last race in the mud he finished second two back. #6 Go Get That intrigues me, switches back to dirt and Stanley Hough is 22% with shippers. Would use either if you’re trying to play against but I didn’t have a really strong opinion here.
Race 2 CLM nw3L14k, Fillies and Mares 3up, 7 furlongs
3-2-6-5
#3 Cool as you Like drops in class first off the claim for Linda Rice, the barn is 29% first off the claim and 36% dropping off the claim. Really like her race 2 back where she was involved in the early pace, and that was against tougher competition. 9-5 ML. #2 Flippity Flop is a presser type, his last race 2 back he won at this distance at the n2L level, now ships from Parx after not doing much in a starter allowance. #6 Promise me Roses is also dropping first off the claim for Gary Gullo, needs a setup as a stalker type and not sure she’ll get that without much speed in the race but she is 2 for 3 ITM at this distance.
Race 3 MSW 78k, State Bred Fillies and Mares 2yo, 5.5 furlongs turf
3-7-8-4
#3 Light in the Sky making his second career start for Linda Rice, her last race was in the mud and now has every right to improve up to par. More Linda Rice stats: 18% 1st on grass and 27% second career race. #7 Cake makes her debut for the infamous Chad Brown/ Javier duo, they paid 10x her stud fee for her so clearly they have high expectations but she’ll be overbet because of the connections. #8 Good Credence is another second time starter, gets first time lasix, adds blinkers and ships from Monmouth. Some things to like as she tries grass for the first time.
Race 4 AOC n2x 40k, state bred 3up, 1 mile turf
1-8-2-7
This was a tough race and I landed on #1 Magacone. Jose Lezcano should get him to the front and I think he’ll get a softer pace than his last couple races, Jason Servis is 37% with beaten favorites, ran above par the past 2 races, he is an 8 year old gelding but I thought he made the most sense based on the pace setup. #8 Way Early has some decent back class, seems to do his best running against state breds as he begins his 2019 campaign. Playing against as ML favorite. #2 Mr. Massena has been in good form as of late, steps up to the n2x level after winning the n1x condition last out, will be on the front end and should hang on for a piece.
Race 5 CLM 12.5k 3up, 1 ⅛ miles
2-6-1-9
#2 Halloween Horror comes in first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez, he’s 49%(49!!) dropping first off the claim, gets Manny Franco aboard and this stalker type should get a nice setup with some speed up front. #6 Chief Know it All also comes in first off the claim for Eddie Keneally, Churchill Downs shippers coming to NY have done pretty well in the claiming ranks. #1 Tactical Pursuit comes in second off the claim, switches from turf to dirt and gets class relief. Early speed horse and should be used underneath.
Race 6 CLM nw3L 35k 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf
5-4-8-7
#5 Bemma’s Boy opens 6-1 ML, his last race at this level was well above average and he showed a good rally down the stretch, Jose stays on for Michael Maker. #4 Here Comes Your Man has been pretty consistent against tougher, has a third at this level a couple races back and has shown a good late kick. #8 Bootlegger will be sent to the front end by Luis Saez, ran against a very hot pace last out and will have it a little easier but not sure he’ll have enough down the stretch.
Race 7 Grade 2 Hall of Fame Stakes, 3 yo, 1 mile turf
7-5-3-1
#7 Global Access fits one of my favorite angles, a woodbine shipper who has done well on the synthetic now takes to the turf here. He won a grade 3 two back before failing as the favorite last out, trainer Michael Trombetta is 22% with beaten favorites and sure, it is a step up in class but he is one of a handful here that have won a graded stakes. 6-1 ML. #5 Casa Creed looks good based on speed figures alone, his race 2 back he finished second in the Penn Mile and last race finished third and that was behind the talented Win Win Win. He’s ⅔ ITM at this distance on turf and comes into this race in good form. #3 English Bee should appreciate the cut back in distance, last race was a mile and a quarter in the Belmont Derby so he has an excuse and won a listed stakes at this distance two back.
Race 8 Alydar Stakes 100k 4up, 1 ⅛ mile
2-5-7-3
I love #2 Tom’s d’Etat in this spots and it looks like I’m not alone as he opens 7-5 ML. His past 2 races he have been grade 2’s and he’s been involved both times, seems like he has a class edge on this bunch and gets a jock upgrade to Joel Rosario. #5 American Tattoo steps up to stakes competition in his 3rd race in the states, Argentina bred horse showed a 14 point speed figure improvement the first 2 and figures to improve yet again. #7 Backyard Heaven comes in second off the layoff for Chad Brown, not surprisingly he’s 25% with runners second off.
Race 9 Saratoga Oaks 750k, 3 yo fillies, 1 3/16 miles turf
5-1-2-6
I’ll be siding with Chalk again with #5 Concrete Rose, I really think since the Edgewood she’s the best 3 year old filly in the country, clearly the distance won’t be an issue as she won the mile and a quarter Belmont Derby last out, I’m not gonna try and play against her. The next logical contender would be #1 Olendon for Chad Brown, 1st time lasix and first time blinkers are both positives and he teams up with Irad. #2 Happen seems like the better of the two Aidan O’Brien runners, my concern is Ryan Moore and AOB teaming up in the states in the past year: 0/14. Stretches out in his first race overseas.
Race 10 MCL 40k state bred fillies and mares, 1 1/16 miles turf
6-7-4-10