Another Friday card from the Spa sees 10 races with the feature being an older filly and mare turf stakes which is the fourth race, it’s a solid enough card and should see some good races today, we figure to be fast and firm and the first post is 1:10 est. Good luck if you’re playing and follow me on twitter @cjfelts87.
Daily Gallop stats: Total: 336-88-65-68 (26% win, 66% ITM)
Saratoga ROI- bet $60 won $45.00 ($1.50)
Race 1 MCL 20k F&M 3up, 6.5 furlongs
Selections: 1-5-7
Top Pick: #1 Spanish Peaks makes the most sense in the opener, ships over from Indiana Grand after running second over the turf and finds a logical spot to run in today, Brad Cox is 25% with the surface switch and 28% cutting back in distance plus Jose Ortiz gets the call today. 2-1 ML is a fair price so don’t take anything less but she is the most likely winner of this bottom of the barrel race.
Next up: #5 Flashing Red ships from Keeneland and after running in the slop last time so the combination of a dry track, a cutback in distance and the drop in class will all be to her benefit today as Tyler Gaffalione takes the mount.
Race 2 Allowance 74k n1x F&M 3up, 5.5 furlongs turf
Selections: 6-3-8-5
Top Pick: Chalky way to start the day but #6 Notorious RBG seems to be the fastest of this bunch, chased a quick pace against stakes company last out and ran well in that spot now second off the layoff dropping in class she makes a lot of sense in this spot. 7-5 ML favorite as Joel Rosario hops on for Christophe Clement, both are scorching hot right now.
Next up: #3 Stop War is the other Clement entry, she’s certainly quick and gets another try at this level. Irad stays aboard and she should be around late.
Race 3 Claiming 14k N3L F&M 3up, 7 furlongs
Selections: 7-4-1-5
Top Pick: #7 Mosienko comes into this race first off the claim for Rob Falcone, takes a logical step to the N3L condition off the win against N2L and she has the tactical speed to be competitive in this spot. Rosario stays aboard for the new trainer. 7-2 ML.
Next up: #4 Makin’ Out is interesting at 4-1 ML, drops down from the 35k N3L level and will get to run over a dry track for the first time since February and that was against tougher. It’s a logical drop, Carmouche stays on and she has the back class to be competitive in this spot.
Race 4 Perfect Sting Stakes 100k Listed F&M 4up, 1 1/16 miles turf
Selections: 7-1-4-2
Top Pick: #7 Secret Massage is a grade 3 winner this year at Churchill who finds a good spot to run into after grade 1 company at Keeneland proved too much. She is capable of winning at the distance and has good closing speed so expect to see her moving down the stretch as Johnny V stays aboard.
Next up: #1 Cafe Americano is one of two Chad Brown entrants in here, improving four year makes her 2020 debut but she can fire off layoffs, the only knock against her is no races at the mile and a sixteenth distance, but she has won at a mile and eighth so should still be there at that shorter distance.
Race 5 Maiden Claiming 40k 3up, 5.5 furlongs
Selections: 7-5-4-9
Top Pick: #7 Ahead of Plan drops down to maiden claiming company and will switch back to turf for Chad Brown, he is 39% making the msw to mcl switch and 24% going dirt to turf plus his regular jock Javier Castellano hops back on, this spot makes sense for him and good works coming into today.
Next up: #5 Its a Wrap is the 2-1 ML favorite for Michelle Nevin, another class dropper who has speed and will be involved early as Manny Franco stays aboard.
Race 6 Claiming 20k 3up, 6.5 furlongs
Selections: 4-1A-6
Top Pick: #4 Coltandmississippi has the tactical speed to be competitive in this spot and drops slightly in class as Tyler Gaffalione stays on. Likes to sprint and has some pace to run into today.
Next up: The 1A part of the entry #1A Clench is intriguing to me, he will be on the front end as he drops in class and Lezcano keeps the mount.
Race 7 Claiming 35k N3L 3up, 5.5 furlongs turf
Selections: 7-3-1
Top Pick: This is a wide open field and I landed on #7 Variant Perception. He’s a closer type in a field filled with speed so I would expect him to get a good trip coming from off the pace today, solid effort last out at this level where he was only beaten by a head and gets another crack today.
Next up: #3 Fig Jelly is the 8-5 ML favorite and he’s certainly quick enough but only 2 wins and 12 seconds is a bit concerning. Maybe the drop in class will help him get over his seconditis as Irad takes the mount.
Race 8 Allowance Optional Claiming 40k n2x state bred 3up, 6 furlongs
Selections: 7-5-4-2
Top Pick: #7 Kazmania is really a pace play more than anything in this spot, he fits well and it looks like the 2,4, and 5 will all be up front battling making for a nice stalking trip for this guy Irad gets the mount. Interesting at 6-1 ML.
Next up: #5 Leaky Cup has the best shot of the three speed horses if he can run to it in here, improving off the layoff and is a logical spot but has his work cut out for him here.
Race 9 Allowance Optional Claiming 62k n2x 3up, 1 3/16 miles turf
Selections: 2-1/1A-8-4
Top Pick: Tough race so I’ll go with a price in #2 Argonne at 8-1 ML. Drops in class second off the layoff, going a little longer to a distance he has won at before and he has won at the class level too. Luis Saez is a good turf rider and he has won on him before so he knows this horse well; a lot of things to like and offers some nice value.
Next up: The 1/1A Klaravich Entry is the 5/2 ML favorite, I’m not sure that #1 Voting Control can get the distance but the #1A is the intriguing part of the entry to me, two wins and a second in three tries at the level, just missed at this level last out finishing second then being DQ’ed to third, Castellano stays aboard for another try but seems to me like a beatable favorite.
Race 10 Maiden Claiming 40k state bred F&M 3up, 1 mile turf
Selections: 8-9-4-7
Top Pick: #8 Lucky Latkes has had two good tries at this level and now figures to be there again as the 5-2 ML favorite. Last time out had some traffic trouble but with a clean trip today and Manny Franco staying aboard for Christophe Clement he can get it done in the finale.
Next up: #9 Running on Entry is dropping in class second off the layoff for James Toner so expecting him to run well as Gaffalione takes the mount.