Sunday February 2nd
COLD JOCKEY’S : After going winless for 40
consecutive mounts, Bejarano got a win on Saturday. Evin Roman remains winless.
HOT JOCKEY’S: Rispoli now over 20% on Turf,
1 /15 on dirt though.
COLD TRAINERS: D. O’Neill: now below 10%
win rate, and 3 for last 40
HOT TRAINERS: B. Koriner 7 for 16 in last
30 days. Hector Palma 3 wins in last 4 starts.
Early Pick 5 Plays:
3,4/2,3/5,6/1,3,4/1,3,4,7
3/2,3,6/1,2,5,6/ALL/ 1,3,4,7
Top Win Bets: R3 #5 Southboot Shirley and
R6 #6 Storming Lady
Race 1: 7F DIRT MDSW $55K 3YO PACE: Baffert’s showed be prominent
early
Projection:
3-4-1 Horizontals:
A: 3 B: 4 C:1 X: 2,5,6
We kick off
with a Maiden Special Weight group that includes to pricey yearling purchases
from the Baffert barn that are sure to take money here. I will be against the
one on the rail #1 Mastering. This $500k purchase comes off a bullet gate work
but strangely we see Baffert turn to Bejarano on this mount. Off all Bob’s MSW
starters in the past year, he has used Bejarano only once (Justinian who won)
and this jock has been ice cold, even with him breaking his 40-mount losing
streak yesterday. Bejarano also not the best for gate to wire tactics, and from
the 1 hole may not have many options. I see this one getting played, and for
the reasons I just mentioned feel value will be poor. Not an “X” as I woudnt be
shocked to see this one win, but I will pass and take a stand against in
Horizontals. In trying to find a horse that could beat the other Baffert, I
just couldn’t do it. Top Pick is #3 West Sider. This was Nadal’s
workmate on the 1/13 drill and has a good base of works to be fit and ready for
debut here. Appears to be a speedy sort and will likely be on or near the lead
in this one. Gets DVD aboard, a good sign as Bob’s go to rider on the west
coast now, and together are 8 for 24 in the past year on MSW first time
starters. Of the rest of the bunch, #4 Candy Fury will be my only use
horizontally, as he has been up against some solid horses in his three MSW
starts and I like the addition of blinkers today to have this one more involved
early, and with Rispoli getting the call would presume a stalking trip. Positive
ROI with Juan Garcia as owner. With the experience over the Baffert’s and
fitness for the 7F today could see this one setting up if neither of the Baffert’s
get an easy lone lead.
Race 2: 8.5F DIRT MDCLM $30k 3YO Fillies PACE: Slow, possible lone lead #2
Projection:3-2-6
Horizontals: A: 3 B:2 C:
6 X: 1,4,5
Not a strong
group here, but I am going back to the well with #3 Subtle Ride here who
I had as a top pick 3 weeks back and finshed an uncompetitve 3rd at
this level. Since has had a promising work and gets an even softer bunch today.
Sire, Clubhouse Ride is 24% with routes and Lewis is 23% $5.80 with routes in
his last 40 starts. The extra ½ furlong will be a challenge for the rest of the
group, but should fit this horse well. #2 Honeywhiskeynwine makes the
surface switch today, a profitable move for Desormeaux as trainer, but Keith is
0-14 to begin this meet at SA. What I do
like is the possibility for lone speed at the extended distance, as none of the
others have shown early speed but we also know that turf speed doesn’t always
translate to dirt. Noble Mission is 16% on dirt as a sire but not much success
from dam/sibs on the dirt. Too risky of a play at 9/5, but an include
horizontally due to pace.
Race 3: 6F DIRT CLM $16K N3L 4YO+ F&M Pace: Moderate/ Contentious
Projection: 5-6-1 Horizontal: A=5 B=1,6 C= 2 X=3,4
A good spot
for #5 Southboot Shirley here today as she drops to the lowest claiming
level of her career but has been up against some tough groups of late, where 5
next out winners have come from her last 3 races. In her last, Edwin did what he does so well
and got her out of the gate quickly and smooth, but the Peter Miller horse Love
a Honeybadger (former stakes type) was too fast early. Southboot Shirley sat
off the leader comfortably but once Nomizar headed her from the outside on the
turn, it appeared she threw in threw in the towel. Either Loveahoneybadger or
Nomizar would be odds on in this race, so look for Southboot Shirley to show
better in this spot, with the possibility of a lone lead. Will also include #1 Vallestina who
comes in off a 13 month layoff and also takes a big class drop coupled with a
major jockey upgrade to Prat. Matches
top Thorograph fig in the race with Southboot Shirley and Sheza Factor with a
solid foundation of works. This one was going up against stakes type when she
was racing in 18’ (Spiced Perfection, Kentan Road). #6 Leading Indicator
is a must ise as well, as Dean Pederson has been winning at a 25% slip at SA
this year with win rates of 34% on dirt and 36% in sprints with this one
fitting this race well, where he ran 2nd at his same N3L condition 3
weeks back. Positive jock change, as
trainer is 32% lifetime with Tiago. Pederson also enters #2 Cimaron in
here, who he claimed out of the same race Leading Indicator exists. If Pederson
has been able to quickly figure out the issues with this one out of the gate (5
straight “off slow”) she could certainly be a danger. Worked evenly with
Leading Indicator in prep for this one, and has shown talent despite the poor
starts. I will play against Sheza Factor in this one, Evin Roman is 0’fer on
this meet and the 2 wins this one has were both on lone leads in soft
fractions, not a scenario I see here today.
Race 4: 9F TURF OC62K N2X
4YO+ F&M PACE: Moderate
to Fast/ possible duel
Projection: 4-1-3 Horizontal: A=1,4 B=3 C=2,5 X=
Small but mighty field, where any of these five have a good
chance today. I will be taking a chance on #4 Angel Allesandra as top
pick. 2nd off the layoff and blinkers off (key move for Baltas) this
one seems likely to improve. Harmless to her outside will be who she needs to
deal with from a pace scenario standpoint, but could also work out to where
Rosario could float the competition wide in the first turn (a kiss of death on
this turf course) before securing the lead on the front end and moving over to
the fence. Does have some obstacles here, as this is the first time against
older and over a mile. #1 Opus Won’s running style could fit well here,
and love the versatility this one has shown winning both on the lead or from
off. The sibling of GSW Markie’s Water for same owners could be tough in here
if Mario finds a nice ground saving trip just off Harmless and AA.
Race 5: 6F DIRT OC40K
N1X 4YO+ PACE: Very FAST/ Contentious
Projection: 3-4-1-7 Horizontal:
A: 3,4 B:1,7 C: 2 X:5,6
I feel like
I am going to have de ja vu with this race, as Soldier Boy, a horse I like
quite a bit again draws the rail and again is up against a solid Baffert horse
and Tiger Dad as he was the January 4th race at this condition at
6.5F. Today they shorten up, a benefit to #1 Soldier Boy but could see
some pace pressure again as he did in last before having to kick away in 44.3
for the half to get separation and left the tank empty for the last ½ F. #3 Tiger
Dad’s return to dirt in that one was impressive and Baffert’s Hot Sean got
a great trip considering the pace. I see these three as the main contenders
here today, but don’t sleep on the #7 It’s Tiz Time as with all the speed lined
up in this one, could get an ideal scenario to fly home late as he did at 74-1
in his last start in Del Mar. He di so with far from a good trip and was off a
year layoff. Gets Diego Sanchez back on board today.
Race 6: 5.5F TURF OC62K
N2X 4YO+ F&M PACE: Slow/Moderate
Projection: 6-1-4 Horizontal: A: 6 B: 1
C:2,4,5 X:3,7
Todays card may be short field city, but again, another
contentious race. The #6 Storming Lady is my top pick here as we know
Marquez specialty are these Turf Sprints and we see a big upgrade with Prat
getting the call. I mean Bejarano won on this horse (1 of his only 2 wins of
this meet. For a 5.5F sprint, not a ton of speed in this one, but the two
likely to go early are surrounding him in the gate, so Prat will look to sit
off of it and use her late kick (2nd best late figs in the race) to
win from off the lead. At 7/2, we would be getting the top Thorograph fig of
this bunch as well and recent works have been slow but solid (typical of
Marquez). Underneath, I do like #1 Mischiffie who returns to this
condition after finishing a good second to next out winner Stealthediamonds.
Will need to get a trip from the 1 hole but got to like the 5:2-2-0 record from
this distance.
Race 7: 6F DIRT MDCLM $50K CA BRED3YO Fillies PACE:
Projection: 4-8-2 Horizontal: A:2,4,8 B: 5,6 C: 7 X: 1,3