June 7th, 2020
Bias Notes:
Turf: Despite the wire to wire win in the Crystal Waters Stakes yesterday, I am maintaining a slight turf bias against pace setters for the track. In that race yesterday, the winner was allowed the lead (could absolutely tell the stalkers (normally on the pace) did not want it and were being restrained, this caused the half mile clocking from the ¼ to the ¾ calls to be a full second slower than The Frans Valentine earlier in the day, and an overall slow 48.7 middle clocking. The 90-1 winner never was collared and was allowed a breather to have enough coming home. The pace scenario, trumped the bias.
Dirt: Remains pretty fair, clearly the name of the game is getting to the lead by the top of the stretch, where as of Friday ~75% of winners were on the lead at this point on dirt since the meets revival. In the finale yesterday, was only the 2nd time since meets revival a runner on dirt won from >2 lengths back at the top of the stretch.
Race 1: 8F TURF CLM $35k N3L 3YO+ PACE: #3 Speed of Speed
Projection: 8-3-7 Horizontal: A:3,8 B: 7 C: 4,6 X: 1,2,5
These N3L events brings normally bring in a pretty salty group with a mixed back of experience and this is no different. There is one 3 year old (#2) against 7 elders here. Will be tossing this one, where despite being thrown in the deep end last out vs. Charlatan and Rushie in a strong OC80k, the previous race was a weak 4 horse field where he got ideal pace set up. Dirt to turf not a winning move for this trainer (0 for last 28). So on to the contenders…. The ML favorite, #3 Never Easy takes a pretty massive drop into this race. Look at the past company this one has ran against (Mo Forza x2, Moody Jim, Succeedandsurpass, Originarie, Sellwood) but is this a need the lead type? Can he overcome the bias? Got to love the jockey upgrade and Mandella has won 5 of his last 7 claiming races. Just interesting to see the figure regression at a time when he should be moving forward, so this drop in class could be just what the doctor asked for. I will give the top nod to #8 Cayman’s Cobra who comes in off the break for Baltas and will be blinkers off, both recent strong angles for Baltas horses. Recent works noted that this one looks better than before the break. Like the outside post and early speed where I see this one sitting off the #3 in stalking position waiting to pounce in the lane. Also love the improving pattern for #7 Holy Ghost who appears to need some pace to run at, and could get that if 3,8 lock up in battle.
Race 2: 7F DIRT CLM $10k 3+YO F&M PACE: Fast, contentious between 2,4
Projection: 7-6-2-4 Horizontal: A: 7 B: 2,4,6 C: 1,3 X: 5
The first 7F race since the restart of this meet (another one in R3) which makes me wonder if there are horses that may have been patiently waiting for this race. Only horse in the race with more than one start at the distance is the ML favorite #7 Majestic Diva who is 7:2-2-1 at the distance including a January win here on fast dirt where her Thorograph figure was 5 points the best to the rest of the tops in here. Jockey from that race gets back on today and trainer has many positive ROI angles that fit this one today. Not normally a fan of eating chalk, but, Single. Underneath, both #2 Desert Smoke and #4 Whoa Nessie will appreciate the cutback with their early speed. If either is able to shake clear and go-uncollared, they have a shot here, but even in a contended pace have great shots at hitting the board. A horse at a price to watch is #6 Mongolian Window, who I liked going into the race 2 weeks ago following sharp dirt works. Connections wheel back on short rest and no works in between, a sign of confidence, especially since they are stick to the dirt after what was not a strong effort. Expecting better today and one to include in the exotics.
Race 3: 7F DIRT CLM $10k 3+YO Pace: 2 likely lone speed
Projection: 1-6-4 Horizontal: A: 1,6 B: 4 C: 2,3 X: 5
Same condition as R2, but for the boys. All 6 of these are geldings interestingly enough. Really like the effort of the #1 Burn me Twice last out when he fought Papa Turf hard in the lane at this distance. Papa is one that is a steady winner at 10k and below, and prior to that has been knocking heads with Short of Ez another regular winner. I see this as a softer bunch and figures are much the best. For value, if the 7/2 ML holds, I do like #6 Imagineiamfastest who beat the favorite Black Storm in here at 1M in January and like that this one should sit mid pack behind what should be some contentious pace, make a middle move and be in striking position at top of stretch before those who are stretching out to 7F begin to tire.
Race 4: 6.5F DIRT OC $20K N1X CA BREDS 3YO+ PACE: Moderate/ Contentious.
Projection: 1-7-6 Horizontal: A: 1,7 B: 6 C: 2 X: 3,4
#1 Appreciated has been running in open company, and last race came up very strong, where he lost by ¾ length against a strong performance from Oil Can Knight and second place finished Kneedeepinsnow who romped yesterday, and Galilean who was 3rd. Solid group. Now drops to OC20k level against statebreds with last out figure that is only matched by the ML favorite in here #7 Mr. Paytience. The effort by #7 in his race off a year layoff was a good one, with stablemate Whooping Jay putting up a big figure in that statebred event.
Race 5: 8F TURF MDCLM $62.5k F&M 3YO+ PACE: Lone Speed Potential #2
Projection: 1-2-7-6 Horizontal: A: 1,2 B: 6,7 C: 3,8 X: 4,5
First thing that sticks out here in this large field is the lack of early pace. Makes #2 Awesome Drive a use on my tickets, despite being 3 vs. older and against a bias. Watching replay of last, you can tell this one wants to be on the front, as he continues to pull early, where today could find himself alone out there with a chance to take a breather and carry the speed home. Horse is well bred for distance with dam running only at 2YO, but all turf routes with strong figures, and is a half to My Man Sam (runner up in Bluegrass and entrant in Ky Derby, Travers, and PA Derby). This one has not peaked and they are still figuring out preferred running style. #1 Tagline will be tough here. I really liked the last effort closing into slow fractions with a nice finsh in 22.9 FQ! If there is contention today, lookout for this one late. Another price that makes a lot of senses in here is #7 Sappori Girl. One of the handful of older versus 3YO’s and whose Thorograph figures are stronger than all others except Tagline and Surface. Gets Rispoli on board as well, expecting improvement and a late run. #6 Columbian Gold for Miller/Prat rolled by Awesome Drive in the stretch despite a tough trip. Prat and Miller hitting at 28% together and this 3YO should continue to improve. #8 Surface had really strong 3YO figures last year and just missed breaking her maiden with 2 tight 2nd’. Would have higher on my list here, but McCarthy not strong off the layoff and barn as begun to cool down.
Race 6: 8.5F DIRT AOC $40K N1X 3YO+ PACE: FAST and Contentious
Projection: 5-2-4 Horizontal: A: 5 B: 2,4 C: 1,3,6 X:
Arguably the best betting race of the day, even with only 6 entrants. A case can be made for each, but I am looking at what could be a very hot and contentious pace in here, as well as an extra half furlong for some of these milers with speed really sets this up for an off the pace type. #5 Swamp Souffle makes a lot of sense. Versatile horse who has won close up and off of it and loves SA with 3 wins in 5 starts. Take note of the 6 straight bullet works for #1 Dark Prince, but also never gained better than a B- work grade from @clockerandy. This one clearly has speed, but the other speed in this race from 2 and 6 will not make it easy on him from the rail unless he truly separates and relaxes. Think the distance and pace scenario makes it tough today.
Race 7: 5.5 F TURF MDCLM $62.5k F&M 3YO+ PACE: Contentious, no clear pace setter
Projection: 1-6-9 Horizontal: A: 1,6 B: 3,9 C: 4,10 X: 2,5,7,8
Race 8: 7F DIRT G2 TRIPLE BEND STAKES $200K 3YO+ PACE: Fast and Contentious
Projection: 1-5-4 Horizontal: A: 1 B: 4,5 C: 2,3 X:
Welcome back McKinzie who gets Mike Smith back aboard today on his return. At what will be an odds on price, I have to take as hot against here on some tickets. Now, the horse has been working great and can certainly pick right back up, especially at the one turn distance where he is probably best. But this field is sneaky tough today with a couple I like to give the big dog a challenge. #1 Flagstaff, my goodness was he much the best in the G3 at OP won by Whitmore. Blew the start, and ended up running the final quarter faster than the opening, finishing with a huge run and a 11.6 final eigth from off the pace and off the rail were we saw a slight rail bias that day. Don’t expect this one too far off the pace, but a nice pocket position where he can make his move on the turn. Loves SA, 7:4-2-1 in his career here and figures just a notch off McKinzie. Love that Pedersen is taking a shot today with Fashionably Fast, winner of 6 straight (5 against CA Breds). Figures are light to these, but this one fights and has a lot of heart. I could see this one stepping up to the challenge and fight hard in the lane for a potential career best today.
Race 9: 5.5F DIRT MSW $50K 3YO+ CA BREDS PACE: Lone Pace #8 potential.
Projection: 8-7-2 Horizontal: A: 7,8 B: 2,5,9 C: 1,3 X: 4,6,10