Sunday February 23rd
Pretty good Sunday card. Focusing below on the early pick 5 sequence which kicks off with a very good MSW route for fillies. I will keep updates coming on twitter @RMcCarthy1 for the late sequence.
Early Pick 5:
1,2,3,6,8/2,4/ 1,5,6/ 4/ 3,4,7,8,9,10 ($90)
3/2,4,6/ALL/2,3,4,6/ 4,7,10 ($108)
Best Bets:
R1 Early Double $25: 3 / 4 Cold
R4: $100 Win/Show on #4 Brandothebartender
R5: $2 TRI 4,10/ 4,7,10/3,4,7,8,9,10
Race 1: 8F DIRT MSW $55k 3YO Fillies PACE: Fast, likely #3 lone early
Projection: 3-2-6 Horizontals: A: 3 B: 1,2,6 C: 8 X: 4,5,7
Wow, such a solid race to open this card with many promising 3YO Fillies here trying to break their maiden. Baffert sends out a good trio, all of which lost their debut as odds on favorites. Then you have #1 Classy Ruler, the $700k purchase for CRK Stables who has run 2nd in her first two career races from off the pace against now stakes horses. Working very well, with @ clockerandy noting Mike Smith aboard in the AM and stating last morning effort on the 16th was “razor sharp”. With the way the track has been playing and much speed entered in here today, could set this one up well if Mike can work out a trip, but can Mike be trusted? #6 Nora’s Joy is one where we could see some good value in this race. Take a look at who has beat her in her first 3 career races (Arrogate’s half sister Immediate Impact, Breeders Cup entrant Donna Veloce, and the current favorite for the Oaks in Venetian Harbor). Not that she’s getting much easier here today, but in each of those races she was short odds against immense talent, and today we could get 10-1. So who of the three Baffert’s to play? Honestly, hard to toss any here so to me, it’s take a stand with #3 Merneith or use them all on horizontals. In Mernieth’s debut, she was not quick in her first few steps, but was able to quickly get into stride and tear away through fractions of 21.7 / 43.4 in her debut from the rail. All while it looked effortless where at no part of the race through the top of the stretch did it appear this one would be beaten. But then, it appeared she did not switch leads on que in the lane, causing her to slow a bit, yet still showed some gameness. Like that bullet in her first work following the race, and continues to get B+ grades in the AM. Will be on the lead, playing catch me if you can. Fun stat, her lone sibling “More Roses” who recently returned to the work tab is 2 for 2 in her career with both wins by about 6 lengths in gate to wore fashion and an 82 beyer in her second race. 82 for Mernieth may get it done here today. #2 Regal Beauty will likely be coming late. Watch the replay of the last, missed the break, was well off it before making a big run wide against moderate pace to lose by a bob. Was really impressive but beyer came back on the lower end at 63, yet ceiling is much higher. Dam is Book Review, winner of the G1 La Brea at SA and lost he G1 Ballerina by a head. Won another G2 and was G2 placed twice. Good pivot from Classy Ruler to those wanting some late kick as a bigger price. #8 My Happy Girl draws outside again after breaking outward badly in debut and left chasing a very fast red coded pace from Timeform. Talent is there, hard to imagine Bob allowing this one to duel Mernieth so would imagine her sitting right off the pace setter and looking to make first run on the turn but will also need to hold off barn mate and Classy Ruler, tough task.
Race 2: 5.5F TURF O/C $40k CA Bred 4YO+ F&M PACE: Moderate, contested
Projection: 4-2-6 Horizontals: A: 4 B: 2 C: 1,3,6 X: 5,7
Feels like we have a vulnerable favorite in here to beat, so going to take a shot aginast #7 Lofty whose gate to wire maiden win in his last was a 30 point beyer improvement to her fall efforts as a 2YO. Was loose on the lead after clearing early and never got a test in the lane and not sure this was the best bunch he was up against. 3 have raced since, none with a win and all stretched out to 1M. Now he gets winners today for the first time and will be tested, at 9/5 is in a good play against situation. Top pick is #4 Secret Square for Hronis/ Sadler/ Rosario connection. I have always loved the Square Eddie’s in the turf sprints at SA and no one is riding this course better than Rosario who won’t let Lofty get too far out of striking range. #2 RStarsandstripes makes her turf debut following a win on the dirt in a maiden claiming event where he was claimed by Knapp. Knapp is 6 for last 24 off the claim for a strong $4.03 ROI and must have seen something in this one to make the change to turf following the 9+ length win on dirt. Knapp gets Rispoli who is on fire of late to ride and if the dirt speed translates to turf, this one will be on the lead in this dash.
Race 3: 8.5 DIRT ALW $50k 4YO+ Pace: Moderate to fast
Projection: 6-1-5 Horizontal: A= 6 B=1,5 C= 2,4 X=3
The 2,5, and 6 all exit the same race last out at this same condition. Visually the race was not a great one with each of the first 3 quarters run in 24 and change and a finish that looked like #6 Zorich was going to go by the leaders before Tartini shot up in time. With #1 Abusive Gary and #4 Baby Gronk both stretching out to routes from their front running sprints, this one should have a quicker pace for the three that exited the same condition. So who does that favor? #6 Zorich has the best late kick of the bunch and his dam is a 4x winner in distances over 1M on dirt. Also is a half to Sweet Ducky who placed in the Holy Bull. Would say he would appreciate some up front speed in fron more than anyone. Change of equipment for #5 Unbroken Star with blinkers being added, not a strong angle for Puype. Does have a strong string of recent works with a pedigree for distance. Would advise to include #1 Abusive Gary, who will test distance limitations today but really impressed with last win where despite the early duel, drew off in the lane and finshed the final 1/8 in 13 flat without much ask. Gets a weight break with Velez and if he can settle the horse, may end up loose and comfortable.
Race 4: 5.5F TURF O/C $62.5k N2X 4YO+ PACE: Fast and contentious
Projection: 4-3-2 Horizontal: A= 4 B=2,3 C=6 X=1,5
Another vulnerable favorite in here. I like Murad Khan a lot, but odd to see the placement here for the turf sprint after 22 straight routing efforts. Sibs also have never sprinted. So despite the fact the beyers jump off the page, this will be interesting to see if the distance fits, not willing to find out at 9/5, but would likely use defensively in horizontals. With so much early speed entered in here, this one has a good chance to fall apart, which would set up well for #4 Brandothebartender. Brando has the turf sprint experience, yet this will be the first try at 5.5F. In turf sprints in general, has won 3x and hit the board in 8 of 10 starts. Top pick. #2 Whatsontheagenda has not won since this date last year, going 0 for last 6 with three second place finishes against tough competition. Should set the pace, but will have company to his outside, where he has been challenged with this specific situation many times over the past year. Would need to be alone on the lead to pull it off.
Race 5: 6.5F DIRT MDCLM $50K 3YO CA Breds PACE: FAST/ Contentious
Projection: 4-7-10 Horizontal: A: 4 B: 7,10 C: 3,8,9 X: 1,2,5,6
Top pick is #4 Sara Crewe. This daughter of Grazen drops down from MSW ranks following a loss to a very good group in a turf sprint. This will be her first start on dirt since her debut last June but is a sib to Oliver who has 90 beyers on dirt. Huge jock upgrade with Rosario getting the call. I will let Ricky Nine Toes try and beat me. She has hung the last two and have not seen the winning mentality, this combined with Bejarano back on board will keep me against. #7 Traffic Stopper is second choice in here for Koriner who gets the horse back from Sherman. Koriner places his horses well in these claiming race with a 20%+ winning percentage and feel this one has underperformed her pedigree and should be fine back on dirt. #10 Smart Girl is an include horse for me both horizontally and in verticals. 3 weeks back at the same condition this horse was 6-1 and was caught in an inside duel the whole way around the track before succumbing to the pressure in the final furlong. Gets a beneficial outside post and should again have some early speed with better position. Comes off nice workout last week and Rispoli is no longer a fade on dirt, guy has figured it out.