All eyes on the weather today as it looks again to be a factor. As of now, 50% chance of rain by noon through this card. I am keeping my fingers crossed that it holds off, or does not have much impact. Below selections are based on firm turf and fast dirt, how it should be. Be ready to adjust accordingly. Best of luck!
Early Pick 5: 1,5,7/ 4,5/1,3/2,4/3,4,6 $36
Race 1: (7-5-1) Good group running in this downhill turf allowance, but pace seems to be light here. Yesterday, the turf course played well to closers but if the turf is firmed up at all today, the early pace factors could have an advantage. 10-1 ML, #7 More Honor is offering up terrific value. Look at his results on the downhill when fast and firm, in three starts has two wins and a second. Last out on the wet turf, we saw an 11 point beyer drop and no early speed from him off the near 3 month layoff. Since, has snuck in 2 fitness works and should be stronger and ready as 4YO in this second off the layoff race. If he returns to form, or shows improvement (expected), he is very dangerous here. #5 Chill, shipped in after being taken over by Morey in January where in his first race in SoCal was bet down to the favorite in a $50k Allowance race on dirt, in his dirt debut. That did not work out to plan, and now returns to his preferred surface, where the last 5 on firm turf has resulted in 4 second place finishes and a win. Horse will be on or near the lead, and has been working fast in the AM for Morey (46 second ½ on 1/7). If the turf has some cut in it still, a very possible scenario, would downgrade each of these and upgrade both #1 Blitzkreig (O’Neil 35% $3.60 off claim in last 52 claims and note his recent work getting the best of Prodigal Son who won yesterday with ease) and #3 Jimmy Chila. Interesting to Swiss Minister in here, a productive dirt horse who often hits the board, and is 0-2 in his career Turf starts, but Battleborn Racing is usually pretty good at spotting horses. I will roll the dice and avoid, but if you have interest in deepening the ticket consider at a price.
Race 2: (5-4-1) Second consecutive race we see O’Neil with a horse off the claim as winner. #4 Princess Kendra was a steady earner for Reed Saldana before being claimed away by Knapp on New Years and then was quickly moved up to the $12.5k level where she was claimed by O’Neil. Doug has been able to work the horse 3 times since, with Roman on board and with a lot of early speed entered in this, could be a threat late. But Reed Saldana has a chance to beat his old friend, as he comes in with the short odds 2-1 on #5 Sturdy One, who loves Santa Anita (8 starts: 4 wins, 3 seconds) and has done so at higher levels. Returns from the Turf Paradise winter meet where she raced in a stakes, and 2 allowances without a win, where two of those trips were run very wide. This dropper is the top pick here, a little sweet revenge for Reed.
Race 3: (3-6-1) #3 Gallovie will make her North American debut for a trainer who has recent success with this angle. Four consecutive works has the horse ready for action today after the 5 month layoff. This newly turned 3YO should show improvement on her figs from last year, and that would be good enough to compete with this bunch. Gets top turf jock in Prat who hits at 28% with Baltas. The downhill is a quirky course, so there is that risk of the horse simply not getting it first out, but with Prat I remain confident.#6 Shut it Up is fresh off breaking her maiden on 12/28. I do not like the break in her work outs, as otherwise I would have this horse on top. Still will use, as the outside post is favorable and the horse has top figs of this group in that maiden win. (Updated to use #1 in Pick 5 with scratch of #6 Shut it Up)
Race 4: (4-2-3) After being thrown into the deep end of the pool by Reddam/ Callaghan following his Maiden win on debut (3 stakes won by Instagrand, King of Speed, and Mucho Gusto), #4 Owning has won two straight in the claiming levels. Claimed out of last race by Carava, Mario stays on board. I really like the fact this horse is 3-4 in dirt sprints at 6F or less and won off the pace with fast fractions last out on a speed favoring track. I expect the same fast fractions today, betting on 45.1 or less, with Mario swinging wide in the turn to make a late charge. Much respect to the speed on the #3 here for Sadler, but my second choice will be the #2 I Belong to Becky as I am concerned with the extra 1/2F for #3 and the short rest. I Belong to Becky is a full to stakes winning sprinter Poshky, and comes in fresh off a 75 day layoff and 5 consecutive works where she looks fit and ready. Expecting improvement here.
Race 5: (6-3-4) These 5F Turf races should be loaded with speed, but wow, this one is really stacked with those that prefer the front, including 2 QH’s to make it interesting. I mean, at first glance this looks like an obvious single for #6 Anatolian Heat as he comes off the pace well and figs are superior to all of these. Miller can get them ready off a layoff, as he sports positive ROI on 180+ days, but this one feels off a bit. Look at the work pattern (12/21, 12/27, 1/3, 1/9 – – – – 2/6, 2/11) with none of them showing speed. This could explain the massive class drop here, so proceed with caution. Still using here, but including #3 New Karma as this horse offers the second best late TimeFormUS speed figure and I liked his last effort on turf here in October where he closed into slow fractions. With the prospect of rain, will also include #4 Incensed who has a win on an off track, and has proven to layoff of the early speed and pounce. Tamayo off the claim is 33% $2.42.
Race 6: (3-1-5) #3 Wild Bean was bet down in MSW debut but faltered. Since has had a bullet work for Hoffman’s who has positive ROI across the page on these conditions and connections. Dangerous on the drop. #1 He Be Mojo Risen is the gelded son of Dimple Pinch, a SW dam. Also is taking the drop from MSW to MCL. These two look tough to beat here, but if you are looking at going deeper, the early speed, rest, and great gate work in late Jan make #5 an interesting value play and a use for underneath exotics.
Race 7: Best Betting Race of the card, but the rain and the AE’s will have a big impact on the analysis. Will update all later today.
Race 8: (3-8-4)Race 9: Will update along with race 7 after seeing if this stays on Turf and the downhill. Yesterdays was moved to the 5F oval,