Welcome back to Santa Anita! We are officially less than 3 weeks from Breeder’s Cup weekend, and the excitement is certainly building. We had a decent week last Sunday, getting 3 of 8 top selection winners home but whiffing badly by trying to beat Baffert. We also highlighted a $49.20 winner El Tigre Terrible as the third choice in race 6, The Speakeasy Stakes! Hopefully you all managed to cash a few tickets!
2019 Fall Santa Anita Statistics
Last Week: 38% (3/8 win, 4/8 ITM), $1.90 ROI per $2 win bet ($16 wagered, $15.20 returned)
Santa Anita Fall 2019: 31% (5/16 win, 8/16 ITM), $1.58 ROI per $2 win bet ($32 wagered, $25.20 returned)
Race 1: Mdn 50k 5½ Furlongs
Picks: 5-4-3-2
Bob Baffert enters two in this juvenile maiden special weight race. It says something about the quality of field when both of Baffert’s entrants sold for more indivudually than the rest of the (non-Baffert) horses in this field combined. #5 High Velocity is the top selection. JC Diaz is Baffert’s latest apprentice rider, and he hasn’t disappointed, going 5/9 this meet with a positive ROI. Quality road gets 13% debut winners. Note the blistering 46.3 work on October 3; this one likely has early pace aplenty and looms the one to beat. #4 Call Me Daddy may be the biggest threat to the Baffert entrants. Hot freshman sire Palace Malice is getting 19% first time winners, and Doug O’Neill is having himself a great meet so far at 27%. Hot jockey Cedillo gets up, the latest first call pilot for O’Neill. The biggest threat to the Baffert horse could very well be the other Baffert horse, #3 Malibu Star. Both are owned by Gary and Mary West and trained by Baffert, but the jockey of choice ends up on High Velocity instead, whereas Roman is 0/3 when riding for Baffert. Watch the tote to see which of these two takes the action and follow the money.
Race 2: Mdn 50k 5½ Furlongs (T)
Picks: 7-8-2-1
Race 2 brings us a field of maidens going 5.5 furlongs on the turf. There are a number of interesting first-time starters in this race, including the top pick #7 Inquisiteur. By strong turf influence sire Tiznow, this gelding makes his debut for hot trainer Papa Mandella and attracts top flight turf rider Prat for his debut. Most of the runners who have raced before have not been ultra-competitive at the MSW level and may need class relief, so I’ll take a chance on a newcomer for the top honors. Of the horses who’ve raced before, #8 Lord Adare is most interesting. He was off slow in his turf debut and then tired after chasing the pace, but one can always forgive a debut effort. His next 2 efforts came on dirt, and while they weren’t poor, the pedigree of Violence and out of a Mr Greeley mare seems to suggest turf is where he will perform better. Strong turf rider Desormeaux takes the call. #2 Joeys Ace goes out first time for Mark Glatt. Was not embarrassed in his last start when trying turf for the first time off of a 6-month layoff. Expecting him to be sharper here and clearly possesses early speed.
Race 3: Mdn 50k 1 Mile
Picks: 7-3-4-5
#3 Honor A.P stamps himself the one to beat after a very impressive debut, although I’m inclined to look elsewhere for my top pick. Honor AP broke 12 lengths last and nearly lost contact with the field before launching a huge rally outside to finish a non-threatening second and recording the fields’ highest speed figure. There wasn’t much passing going on that day at Del Mar, which makes his late run seem even better. However, there are a number of reasons to pause before taking this one at too short a price. Del Mar is typically a fairer track than Santa Anita, which caters strongly to early speed. If Honor AP breaks poorly again he will really be up against the bias of the track to make up that kind of ground here. Additionally, Shirreffs is 2/26 with horses making their second career race, and while he was closing stoutly there are some concerns about him trying two turns for the first time. The winner of his debut, Ginobili, has not been impressive in any of his subsequent starts, and the show horse, Baffert-trained Hydrogen, was last seen running last in a maiden special event at Los Alamitos and is 0-3. The talent is clearly there, but the this is the vulnerable favorite I’ll try to attack in my horizontals. #7 Tizamagician is the top pick. This horse was a good second in his debut, then drew a dead rail at Del Mar in his next start. Just as he was beginning to load up and make his move into the turn, he had to steady hard and lost all momentum at the most critical juncture of the race. Recovering from a check like that in a dirt race is nearly impossible, so he was wrapped up and ridden out. It’s encouraging to see Victor stay aboard, and I think with a better trip he could be sitting on a big race. In a muddled pace scenario, I’m taking a long look at longshot #4 Royal Thunder as the likeliest pacesetter. He stretches out from sprints, where he contested the lead in both races running sub 22 second opening quarters, before fading late. By long-fused Mineshaft on top, there are mixed signs as to how he will handle two turns as there is a lot more speed than stamina on the bottom side. Still, two-year-old races are often won in gate to wire fashion, and I will always be interested in a horse projecting to make the lead at a monstrous price. #5 Eel Point was ice cold on the tote in his debut for Baffert, and his performance on the track reflected his odds. This one has apparently been training a lot better recently, getting the best of Eddy Forever in the latest morning workout, so don’t overlook at a price.
Race 4: OC 16000n1x 1 Mile (T)
Picks: 7-4-1-3
Race 4 is a turf route loaded with early speed, including a number of horses trying two-turns for the first time. #7 Absolutely Perfect ran a strong race last out considering she was coming off a 10-month layoff, but that doesn’t make it any easier for those who backed her as the flopped odds-on favorite. Lightly raced with every right to improve second off the layoff, she stretches back out to the distance she seems best at. She will have to contend with other speed in here, but the outside draw gives Prat options. The turf has been relatively speed-friendly this meet, but if a wicked pace duel ends up developing I want #4 Magnificent Q T the most. While she is winless from 2 starts on turf, she was far from embarrassed in either of those efforts, both against better company than she finds today. She will need a lot of help in front of her, but I like the fact O’Neill does not enter her for a tag here first off the claim after having a chance to look her over. Old pilot sticks, which is always a plus. Look for her late, if at all. #1 Brahms Command has never run a race fast enough to win today, but there are a lot of reasons to anticipate a step forward. She is making her second start off of a 9-month layoff, and red-hot Drayden elects to get up for NorCal trainer Richard Rosales. Blinkers come off, so I’m hoping she works out a stalking trip from the rail at a nice price, but would need a career effort to take the win.
Race 5: Clm 10000 1 Mile
Picks: 7-5-2-1
#7 Brookes All Mine is difficult to endorse off of her recent form, but she ends up the top selection here due to a few factors. First, there is essentially no speed signed on for this race. While Brookes All Mine has rarely made the lead outright, she does often run within a length of the pace going 5.5 to 6 furlongs, and now gets a stretch out to a mile against true one run closers. She gets claimed by sharp trainer Bob Hess, and he immediately adds blinkers and puts aggressive rider Bejarno up. I think this horse will be sending hard from the beginning and may prove a handful in the stretch if left unchallenged for too long. #5 Princess Dorian showed promise late last year but has been running over her head lately. Gets switched to the Lerner stable and is the other horse who potentially could contest the early pace. #2 Love of Art hasn’t done much wrong since switching to dirt, and is a rapidly improving 4-year-old filly. Her last effort was excellent, shifting out to score the win while closing into a mild pace. The main knock against her is that she may be pace compromised here, but with an honest pace up front she immediately becomes elevated to the horse to beat.
Race 6: Mdn 50k 5½ Furlongs (T)
Picks: 6-7-10-2
#6 Grinningeartoear was well bet in her debut, where she broke well and set an honest pace before tiring deep in the stretch. She bled through Lasix in that effort and was vanned off, but she’s now had time to recover and should be a huge play here. Bejarano remains on board for Koriner, who is 29% with horses making their second career race. Smiling Tiger progeny do outstanding first time on turf (19%, including last week’s 24-1 bomb in the Speakeasy Stakes) so she should take to the surface like a duck to water. The pick. #7 Remember to Smile is the next selection. Also by Smiling Tiger, so I anticipate the switch to turf should wake this one up. Has faded quite a bit in both starts to date, but she figures the most logical benefactor should the top selection bleed again or fail to fire. #10 Apache Pass was a disappointing favorite when running next to last in her debut. An uncharacteristically poor effort from a Glatt first-time starter, it’s encouraging to see Cedillo take the mount. Willing to give this one another shot, as she can’t be as bad as she showed on debut.
Race 7: AnoakiaB75K 6 Furlongs
Picks: 1-2-6-4
The Anoakia stakes brings us 6 fillies in what is setting up to be a mad dash to the wire. #1 Shedaresthetdevil is the top pick here. Simon Callaghan does outstanding work with juvenile fillies, and teams up with Prat at a stellar 36%. This miss tried turf routing in her last race and found it to be a bit farther than she wants to go. Cuts back to a sprint and picks up blinkers, she has the versatility and talent to send for the lead or sit just off the other pacesetters. The one to beat, although likely at a short price. #2 Pure Xena may be the horse to catch. She was off a bit slowly last time and found the Grade 1 waters too deep. Blinkers go on here so you know her plan will be to go from the offset and try to make them catch her. Her debut was excellent, and a repeat of that effort could make her dangerous here. #6 Éclair took a few races to put it all together, but she finally broke her maiden for Baffert at Los Alamitos. She’s too slow to win based on what she’s displayed so far, but Baffert isn’t known for spotting horses where they don’t fit. I would expect her to give a better account of herself here, and her outside draw and versatile style gives Roman options.
Race 8: Alw 50000s 1 Mile (T)
Picks: 4-5-8-7
The day’s nightcap is a turf route field of 11. #10 Reedley is the top selection. This field is full of horses who are either facing winners for the first time, or are 1 for 20 somethings who struggle to find the winners circle often. Reedley is lightly raced, possesses ample early speed, and ran a very honest race last out setting quick fractions to get nailed late by a length and a half. There’s other speed signed on, but Reedley has by far the most upside and has shown the ability to shrug off pace pressure before in his maiden score. #3 Unbroken Star looked every bit a star breaking his maiden at Del mar, and he ran a deceptively good race to be second when chasing a lone speed horse loose on the front end. There is some turf pedigree to consider, as he is a sibling to 1 turf winner, although most of the siblings did their best work on dirt and dirt-turf isn’t a strong move for Puype. Still, in a field devoid of talent Unbroken Star may be able to win even on a questionable surface. #6 Tartini is a putrid 1/19 lifetime, but the connections simply refuse to put this horse at a lower level where he’d be more competitive. This closer always tries and finally finds a pretty soft field here today, but tough to fully endorse. Interesting to see Prat take the mount; a contender.