Good Morning! I am sure you are all hungover from another great Beemie Awards night, you got to love Jason and what he does on Twitter. So after you rehydrate and caffeinate, take in some racing from The Great Race Place today. Below is the front half of the card, back half coming later, focused on the Early Pick 5 that unfortunately sees some short fields today. However, there is some good value to be had. Best of luck all!
.50 Early Pick 5: 5,6/1,2,7/1,3,4,5/5/3,4,5,8 ($48)
Race 1: (5-6-9)
Will be looking to beat the ML favorite to open the card, as #3 Rinse and Repeat was 0-8 in 2018, 1-16 lifetime, and has only tried grass once in 16 starts. Is dropping in class here which could wake him up, but looks vulnerable. Top pick is #5 George from Tahoe. You got to love these stories, a $1k purchase at the 2 YO sale in 2017 by Bonde who was patient with him and debuted him a year later as a 3YO on Turf with confidence in a MSW event on Turf where he finished in 2nd. In his second race, a $62k MSW on Turf going a mile he showed more speed early and kicked away to win by 3+ lengths. Third start was washed off the Turf, put a line through it. He takes 9 months off and returns again to have his race washed off the Turf again. Was put on dirt last out at this level and distance, but didn’t show enough early speed (finished well). Now he gets back to Turf, and if he can show some early speed here (working out like he will) he should be very competitive. I normally discard big droppers with regressing speed figures, but I do like #6 Blitzkrieg in here for Mandella/Prat. Last two he was off slow with wide trips, with a smooth start here against this bunch he could be very dangerous. #9 California Clone should be the pace here and gets a good outside post. 3rd race off the layoff and gets a confident boost up in class coupled with positive works. Some good positive signs for a 12-1 shot here.
Win/Show: #5
Trifecta: 5,6/5,6,9/3,5,6,9
Daily Double: 5/1,2
Race 2: (1-2-7)
Possible early Bonde Daily Double here as my top pick is #1 Sierra Sunrise. After dropping from MSW, showed a strong close in a 6F race against a stronger group than this. Third race in 50 days, and works are showing good fitness. Would expect another step forward here, and that could very well be enough. #2 Boolicious is a bit of a wild card as we have yet to see her have a chance to run. Very troubled trips in her first two, and now drops from MSW class. $125k price tage the largest amongst these Cal Breds and has the best pedigree of the bunch. #7 Derby Luck could be the lone speed in here which is always dangerous at 5.5F, but recent work on 12/31 was slow and has not worked since, when you would normally see atleast one other.
Win/Show: #1
Pick 4 (with protection of my P5 single): 1,2,7/ 1,3,5/2,5,6/3,5,8
Race 3:( 5-1-4-3)
Short field but a competitive one for this level. I find myself needing to use 4 of the 6 horses in here in the Pick 5. Top pick is #5 Tenthousandreasons, horse returns to dirt following three Turf tries where there was trouble in the last 2. Despite having to check, showed a strong closing kick last out. With some good speed in this race, that could come in handy. If we go back to his last start on dirt, it was here at SA at the same mile distance where he won by 6+ lengths against 12.5k claimers. Was up closer that day and would expect a stalking trip here and to pounce on the #1 coming down the stretch. Also look at the Talamo/Dollase connection, 27% win rate and $4.92 ROI. #1 Sweet Treat will go for the lead, and will hope to get 1:13+ to have enough to get home. Last out against good allowance company, he was pushed hard to a 1:11 split and faded. With softer here, if not pushed, could be dangerous. #4 Mistressofthenight is coming into the race off an impressive bullet workout and jumps up in class following being out bobbed at Los Al. Also, Gets a big jockey upgrade to Rosario to round out the list of positives. #3 Award It has run only 5 of 26 career races on dirt, but won 2 and had a second. Last out on dirt at Los Al was 4-5W the whole way in an allowance race and still held 2nd.
Win/Show: #5
Trifecta: 1,5 /1,3,4,5/1,3,4,5
Race 4: (5-6-2)
Today is the day for Anna Meah to break through for her first win as a trainer. Really like this spot for the salty 7YO #5 Stringent. Last May this horse was dropped from OC40k (a race won by Catalina Crusier) to a $16k claiming race that he won. Since, he has hovered in the $20k range claiming races being competitive in all but one ( turf race you can cross out). Drops now to $12.5k for a really exciting young trainer that has got to be hungry for her first win (0-20 but 45% ITM). I will be using as a single here at a short price. If you are looking for backups, #2 Twirling Tiger gets back to his preferred track and with a clean trip could put up a fight. #6 Papa Turf, coming off a win at the $8k level, and has also won at the $10k level tries to see if he can make $12.5k work. Has early speed and will look to go gate to wire here. Koriner places his horses well IMO, and has a very strong recent claiming win rate of 24% $4.21, but also is 0-6 with horses running for 1st time off the claim. Regardless, a must use in the exotics.
Win: #5
Daily Double: 5/3,5,8
Race 5 (3-8-5-4)
A solid MSW on Turf going a mile here for these 3YO colts. The ML favorite will get play here following the 2nd place finish at this level and the switch to Rosario, but I see others to consider in here. With a projected hot pace, my top two selections are ones I see that could have some late kick. #3 Muralist, sib of 17x winning dirt router Our Caravan, had an adventurous debut where the horse may have gotten a lot out of this, and now stretches out to a mile where based on his pedigree should improve, and where Blacker is dangerous at 22% $4.99 when going sprint/route. Not usually a fan of Roman on Turf Routes but with Blacker he is also a dangerous 30% win rate at $2.92. #8 Storms River pedigree screams turf sprint, and this is where Sadler placed him for his first 2 races where he should some good closing kick. Recent works also show trainer having this horse close and running at targets. “ Does not do anything easy but does rally when asked” -Andy Harrington. Will be interesting to see if this distance is ideal. #5 Thief of Joy at 8-1 is interesting, as this Irish invader will get first time Lasix. Will need to improve to compete in first American race based on Thorograph figs, but I do like the stamina building works of late.
Win/Show: #3
Late Pick 5 1,3,5/4,6,7/5,7,9,10/5,7/ 6,8,10 ($108, or $54 if you single Roy H)
Race 6: (1-5-3)
Lots of questions marks in this race.
- Will there be a heated pace duel between #1 and #2 that sets up for the stalkers?
- How will the “equipment change” impact #5
- Will we see the 2016 or 2018 version of #2.
- Does the class relief and surface change wake up the #3
The way I see it, the #1 Facts Matter can either go to the lead and if given it, can control the race. If #2 goes hard, will sit off and has showed he can win from a stalking position. The other 3 horses will all be coming late so this should equate to plenty of opportunity for the #1 to get a clean trip. You get the top jockey to navigate and although the short price, will be my top pick. #5 Neighborhood Bully loses DVD, but Bejarano suits this horse’s style well. Had a good closing style showed off in his Del Mar win this summer on a track that was favoring front end speed but has regressed in his last three. Is recently gelded and had a good workout post operation, so if there is a fast number at the ½ this horse has a good chance. #3 Iron Alex looks to get Dallas Keen his first win of the meet. Has been entered on Turf for last 9 races but get gets good class relief with this dirt try. Thorograph numbers have this one with a good chance against this bunch with any improvement, and trainer must feel he is fit and fresh off this short 2 week layoff with a 5F work in between.
Race 7: (6-4-7)
Battle of the Bafferts here but if you can get close to the ML 3-1 odds on #6 Scalper you are getting great value. Talamo has morning works with both of these Bafferts, who both have DVD as the normal rider, so if Talamo was given a choice here, he chose Scalper. In a 11 horse field in his debut he was bet down to even money, clearly a lot of confidence out there going into his first, but had a tough trip and was steadied before his final stretch drive. After a fast morning 4F work on 1/10 this horse should be ready to fire. #4 Norski exits the same race as Scalper where he was in tight but showed good finish. Both work out reports graded as a B despite being worked slow and under double wraps, could improve here to be in contention. #7 Dessman, sib of 2x SW turfer and by Union Rags (9% first out win rate for his babies). A $750k purchase for Sheikh Mohammed. Recent work against high potential Flor de la Mar was impressive, and has a good steady morning tab the past 5 weeks. Should be ready and has major potential but like a couple more here in his debut where he may be even money.
Race 8: (7,10,9)
#7 More Honor at 5-1 is screaming value. This horse loves the downhill, in 3 starts on this unique course he has 2 wins and a 2nd. The 2nd was OC75K with the winner as a now stakes type. One of five horses in this race with a Thorograph best of 7 on the turf, and this horses pedigree suggests more room for improvement and I like the 4 consecutive 5F works this past month. #10 Lauren’s Lad is another one familiar with the downhill turf with a win and two 2nd’s in 6 career races. Now, look at the ROI’s on a few of the angles with Baltas. When adding blinkers is 29% $2.68, with Prat this past year is 29% $2.53, and dirt to turf is 21% $2.68. Only thing that concerns me a bit is the 6 straight gate works, Baltas must prefer this horse near the lead. #9 Bedeviled is coming off a 10 month layoff following the claim. If Glatt as the horse ready to return to his early 2018 figs, he has a shot. His running style, coming from off the pace could suit this pace scenario well. At 12-1, a major value play here.
Race 9: #7 Roy H. If you are looking to beat him, it would be the other Miller, #5 Conquest Tsunami, the clear speed of the race in his switch over to dirt.
Race 10: (10-8-6)
Appears to be a paceless race, so careful with the Euro bred (#1) and #4 here who appear to be deep closers. #10 Strengthinnumbers should show a little more speed here with the outside post and will hope to get a stalking trip. This will be her 4th try on the downhill course with a second, third and fourth place finish thus far. Horse gets some weight allowance here with Figueroa as well and has the best figure in the race 3 back. D’Amato/Fig are 25% $3.86 this past year. #8 Dearborn continues to impress in the mornings and is overdue for breaking her maiden. Getting back to the 6.5 without much pace should suit this horse well. #6 Fuega could be the speed here, so I will include in case she gets away with a 44.2+ half. First race had to go to the front, and we do see a rider change here, so may also look to layoff the pace but it just hard to find who will go to the lead in this one. Bred well, but was not backed in first race at all. At 10-1 or more, great value in this pace situation.