May 28th, 2020
Key Stat Watch
Hot Jockey: Flavien Prat has won 15 of his last 38 races in the last 10 days (40%).
Hot Trainer: Richard Mandella has won 4 of his last 8 races in the last 10 days (50%).
Hot Trainer: Luis Mendez has won 3 of his last 3 2YO races this meet (100%).
Weather: 81 degrees and sunny. Expect fast/firm.
Race 1: 2YO Md Sp Wt 50k [S] – 4.5F Dirt
Pace Prediction: N/A
Selections: #4 Smoothlikebuttah 5-2, #7 Miss Glorious 2-1, #3 Stars of Bluegrass 7-2
Santa Anita starts this Friday’s card off with another 4.5F dirt sprint for two-year olds. These races have been all about trainer Luis Mendez, who has won the last three races of this type at Santa Anita. Two of those wins came with jockey Ruben Fuentes getting the mount, which leads me to #4 Smoothlikebuttah as my on top selection. Not only is this jockey/trainer combo batting at a 38% clip this year, but the sire Mr. Big is 4/10 (40%) with 2YO first-time starters and 21% with dirt sprints. #7 Miss Glorious is one of two horses in the field with a race under her belt, and the added experience should help here. Her early speed, recent workout, and addition of blinkers will have her competitive in this spot. The only other horse that stands out to me here is #3 Stars of Bluegrass. The workouts look decent, and sire Bluegrass Cat is 13% with 2YO first-time starters. Barn is 6% with first-time starters however, so I will leave underneath.
Race 2: 3YO+ Clm 25000 [F] – 5.5F Dirt
Pace Prediction: Fast/Contentious
Selections: #5 Uno Trouble Maker 3-1, #1 Busy Paynter 8-5, #4 Sheza Factor 4-1
#5 Uno Trouble Maker returns from about a four month layoff, to which trainer Bill Spawr hits at 37% with the move. This five-year old mare drops in from the allowance ranks, where she held on for third in a 6F race that seemed to show a closing bias. The cutback in distance to 5.5F and expected pace duel up front should help this horse find the right trip with Umberto Rispoli aboard. #1 Busy Paynter draws the rail for Mark Glatt and Flavien Prat (19%), and this filly certainly seems to have the most pace of the bunch. Glatt/Prat have been firing since races resumed, and if Busy Paynter can fight off the speed to the outside, she will be tough to catch. #4 Sheza Factor has 5 starts at this distance, earning herself a win and two places. Her last race two back was impressive, but the track heavily favored speed that day so I am skeptical of how strong that 72 Beyer is.
Race 3: 3YO+ Md Sp Wt 50k [S] – 5.5F Turf
Pace Prediction: Lone Speed (#1)
Selections: #1 Lets Get Wild 2-1, #8 Fireproof 3-1, #7 Bella Chica 5-2
The #1 Lets Get Wild looks to have stumbled upon a field where she should win easy. A recent bullet work on May 22nd going four furlongs shows that she has some speed, and pace wise I she looks like the only early speed horse in the field. Ran second to Lofty on January 25th by four lengths, but then proceeded to beat the rest of the field by 10 lengths. She could be tough to catch. Many of the other entrants here do not appeal to me, so I would take a shot with first-time starter #8 Fireproof. This three-year old has some impressive workouts at San Luis Rey training center and attracts hot jockey Flavien Prat for the mount. Sire and Dam both show some turf pedigree, so she could be a player here. #7 Bella Chica has hit the board in both her starts at this distance, and she ran a decent race last out even after bobbling the start. I’m not sure she will be able to catch Lets Get Wild here, but I certainly expect improvement to hit the board again. Has a slight advantage in that she turned four in March, which makes her a year older than the top two selections.
Race 4: 3YO+ Clm 12500N2L [F] – 1 Mile Dirt
Pace Prediction: Moderate
Selections: #1 K P Whirlwind 5-2, #6 Boonesboro Beauty 9-5, #5 Billy K 2-1
Small field here and there is not much to like in the fourth. I expect #1 K P whirlwind to sit off the pace, and the addition of blinkers (Jeff Mullins 3/10 with the move) should help keep her focused. Drops down from a 40k OC 1M route where she ran fourth. Class drop should help and she seems to be working well. #6 Boonesboro Beauty ran second at this level back in February and lost by a neck. Eric Kruljac is 27% off layoffs of 61-180 days, and jockey Abel Cedillo has been on fire recently. She should be moving late. #5 Billy K has the most pace of the group, and she also drops down in class. Looks to have struggled going shorter in February, but if she can get the lead early, she may be tough to catch. The only other pace threat is the two to her inside.
Race 5: 3YO+ Md 62500 – 1 Mile Turf
Pace Prediction: Moderate
Selections: #6 Fengari 5-2, #9 Camps Bay 4-1, #4 Railsplitter 7-2
#6 Fengari returned from a two-year layoff and ran a mile on the turf at this level in February, attracted Flavien Prat, and ran fourth for a career best Beyer of 78. He has been working exceptionally well since that race as he has had six bullet workouts. I like the workout pattern and I expect a lot of improvement here. The other Sadler horse, #9 Camps Bay looks to be the most consistent of the group, and figures to get a nice stalking trip. The post position may be a bit tough, and she will likely be a bit too far off the pace for my liking which will be set by #4 Railsplitter. He will need to improve here, but Railsplitter has a shot to be the lone speed which makes him a must use.
Race 6: 3YO+ Md 25000 [F] – 5.5F Dirt
Pace Prediction: Moderate/Slow
Selections: #4 Big Passion 5-1, #3 Caught in a Trappe 3-1, #6 Thick Smoke 6-1
I have to choose the first-time starter here #4 Big Passion sired out of Mr. Big. Does that name sound familiar? It should, as this is the same sire as my top selection in race one today. Not only does Mr. Big get 40% of his first-time 2YOs home, he also hits at a 35% clip with 3YO+ first time starters. Additionally, Tim Yakteen is 21% when debuting in the maiden claiming ranks. With jockey Jorge Velez aboard, I expect that Big Passion could be dangerous. Not many others impress here, so I will take #3 Caught in a Trappe. Lightly raced four year old placed in her debut going six furlongs, and her last race can be excused as she was caught wide for most of the race. The inner post and experience should help here. Another who looks to improve is the #6 Thick Smoke. Trainer Steve Miyadi hits 24% of the time with maiden second-time starters, and the recent workout at Los Alamitos suggests she may have some zip.
Race 7: 3YO+ OC 80k/N1X [F] – 5.5F Turf
Pace Prediction: Fast/Contentious
Selections: #4 Lofty 9-5, #3 Lighthouse 2-1, #2 Bella Vita 3-1
Small field again here and simply put, #4 Lofty should wire the field. She beat our top selection in race three (Lets Get Wild) by four lengths in February at this distance, and then went on to win her next two races before running a close second on May 17th. Franco returns to hopefully get his fourth win with Lofty, and Franco connects 29% of the time with trainer Michael McCarthy. #3 Lighthouse will hope to keep Lofty wide, and certainly has figures that would be competitive here. She hasn’t raced since February, and may need a race here. #2 Bella Vita should be just off the pace and drops down from stakes company for this race. Simon Callaghan is 13% when switching from dirt to turf, but connects 35% of the time with Prat and therefore cannot be ignored.
Race 8: 3YO+ OC 40k/SAL – 1 Mile Dirt
Pace Prediction: Fast/Contentious
Selections: #3 Big Hoof Dynamite 5-1, #2 Zorich 4-1, #1 Itsthattime 6-1
A competitive race for the last of the day, and it figures to have a decent amount of pace. The #1, #4, and #6 will fight for the lead, so in these instances I like to take a stalker such as #3 Big Hoof Dynamite. The one-mile distance will not be an issue for this recent gelding, as he has hit the board in all four starts at this distance. The fact that jockey Flavien Prat chooses to stay aboard is encouraging, and he should be able to get the trip he wants. Just to his inside, the #2 Zorich, trained by Mark Glatt, figures to get the same kind of trip. It is tough for me to separate these two horses, so I would use both on horizontal tickets. Ultimately, I prefer jockey Flavien Prat over Umberto Rispoli here. Finally, I expect the #1 Itsthattime to hang on for third, and have a small shot of winning at 6-1. He most likely wants the lead but he seems to have the ability to race off the pace as well. Itsthattime has a better closing kick than the other two speed horses, and having veteran jockey Mike Smith (20%) in the last race of the day is a plus.