Welcome back to Santa Anita! Hopefully everyone enjoyed their holidays and are now ready to get back to making money at the Great Race Place! Despite opening day falling a little later than normal due to the weather, opening weekend was an excellent card full of great races and competitive fields. I’ll be covering the Friday cards at SA for The Daily Gallop throughout 2020, and as always, I will provide ROI statistics of my results for those keeping score at home.
New for 2020, I will be breaking out picks into tiers rather than simply providing 4 selections per race. These tiers will show confidence levels in certain horses and also provide a basis for playing horizontal tickets if you are an ABC ticket player. Finally, I’ll also be highlighting one “best longshot” of the day. Let’s start off 2020 with a bang!
Clm 12500n2L 1 Mile
Picks: 6, 1 / 3, 6
We kick off the day with a group of 6 going 8 furlongs on the main track. These cheap N2L races are always challenging handicapping puzzles due to the inconsistency of horses at this level. I’m not crazy about taking a short price on a horse who is 1/19 lifetime, but #6 Fast as Cass does appear to be a cut above most of this field. There is no clear-cut leader in this race, as most of these horses prefer to do their best running late, so I think Fast as Cass has a decent chance to be on or just off the pace early. He has beaten most of this field already, but seems to lack that finishing ability. The barn change from Knapp to Lorenzo Ruiz is a bit concerning, but Ruiz does have strong numbers in a limited sample size, firing at 29% in 2019 and 22% first off the claim. #1 Union Station ran a big race last out. If you watch the replay of the 12/14 race, there were 4 horses bunched together for the lead with a gap of about 10 lengths to the rest of the field. Despite dueling for the majority of the race, those 4 horses ran first, third, fourth, and fifth. Union Station was the only horse that day to make up any ground at all, and while never a threat to the winner he was steadily gaining ground through the lane. His main obstacle here could be the lack of any early pace, as he’s one who will be spotting the field a few lengths early. #3 Tiz A Slayer might be the longest shot on the board, but do not overlook this 4-year-old gelding. Unraced at 3, he is much more lightly raced than the majority of this field, suggesting that we likely have not seen the best of what he has to offer. His speed figures have improved in each of his last 3 starts, and he was trying to close over a strip that was playing kindly towards speed at Los Alamitos. I always prefer a lightly raced horse with upside over the 6-year-old horse who is 1/25 lifetime and likely past his prime. #5 Norski is a notorious horse for me as one who’s burned money countless times as the favorite before finally breaking his maiden last out. Sometimes with these bridesmaid horses, once they finally get that first win the light comes on and they back it up with another strong effort. He has never tried a route, but pedigree suggests he should handle 2 turns, and the strong apprentice rider Velez takes the mount. There are enough unknowns and changes here to suggest he could surprise today, especially if the rider is aggressive and gets him on the lead early.
Race 2: Clm 16000n3L 6 Furlongs
Picks: 2,3 / 4,5
#2 Toothless Wonder gets the nod as the top selection in this compact field of 5. While there are no superstars in this N3L bunch, Toothless Wonder has numerous speed figures recently that are better than what many of these other horses have run. He flopped as the chalk last out at Los Al, but he still managed to hang on for second despite running in a 2-turn mile which is likely farther than he wants to go. He cuts back to 6 furlongs here, and he owns a strong record at Santa Anita of 8-2-2-1. Ignoring the route race last out, all his other races were against much tougher than he faces today, and he seems poised to get the job done. #3 I Belong to Becky is the early favorite going out for the always dangerous Peter Miller barn. This one will likely be on the lead, and he also gets a bit of class relief here. His race 2 back at Del Mar likely wins this race today, but he did regress quite a bit in his most recent race. The wide draw did him no favor that day as he was hung 5 wide on the turn, so it’s probably best not to be too critical of that effort. Tough to love this one at a very short price though. #4 Black Storm has actually beaten I Belong to Becky in the past, but that was before that one changed barns to Peter Miller. Black Storm always runs an honest race, but he’s typically done his best work away from the speed favoring strip of Santa Anita over at Del Mar. He could upset if the pace gets hot up front, but would need everything to go just right. #5 Roaring Fork has never tried sprinting and makes his first start coming off of a 10-month layoff, but allegedly this one has been working strong in the mornings for McCarthy. He has ample early speed and could get bold if he manages to make the lead.
Race 3: [F][S]OC 20000n1x 11/8 Mile (T)
Picks: 1,5,4 / 7
The third race of the day gives us what is essentially a rematch of the November 15th optional claiming race at Del Mar that 5 of 7 of today’s entrants competed in. That race was pretty much dominated on the front end, as the pace was on the slower side and the even money favorite barely managed to overtook the 2 leaders to get up to win. It’s tough to differentiate those horses in that race, as less than 2 lengths separated the winner from the 6th place finisher, so I’m going to go with a new face in #1 Quinnie. She disappeared for most of 2019 as she was laid up from February until October, but she managed to fire a good effort off the break and win a claiming race on the eve of Breeder’s Cup weekend. Carla Gaines appears to have this one heading back in the right direction, and this daughter of English Channel should relish the added ground today. I expect her to sit just off Brahms Command and Rose Dunn while saving all the ground with the rail draw and tip out wide at the top of the stretch where her stamina edge will get her home. #5 Sapphire Kid was arguably the most impressive horse to exit that November 15th race at Del Mar. She found herself next to last and a bit wide on both turns while chasing a slow pace, but she was closing fastest late and would have likely gotten up for third in one or two more jumps. She seems like one who won’t mind the added ground, but the barn change is concerning, as Steve Knapp is just 2/87 with turf starters over the last 3 years. #4 Lucky Ms Jones was another whom I thought was impressive in the November 15th race. She was off a bit slow last out and made a similar run as Sapphire Kid, and although she finished a nose in front it appeared Sapphire Kid was running better late. A strong work tab in the AM indicate she may have improved since that effort, and D’Amato is a strong turf trainer out west. #7 Rose Dunn is the likely favorite after just missing last out, but she’s one I will try to beat. She had a perfect trip last out, stalking a fading leader with a slow pace, and she still couldn’t hang on to get the win. Now she has to handle an extra furlong, and it’s tough to see her getting the lead as Maldonado is back on Brahms Command and will be gunning for the front once again. That last work was lightning fast, she perhaps she has improved, but there are certainly obstacles to overcome and at a short price I’d rather side with others.
Race 4: [F]Clm 12500n2L 6½ Furlongs
Picks: 5,3,1
Race 4 brings us an unattractive group of fillies and mares that lacks any true standout. I acknowledge that Diosa is the likely runaway winner if she returns to her late 2018 form, her last 2 races were abysmal efforts and she then disappeared for 8 months and now returns for a new barn at a much lower level. She also has a lot of other speed to contend with here, and she has never proven that she has the ability to rate or to stay on beyond 5.5 furlongs. Reports from the morning workouts indicate she’s been unwilling to settle and finishing up a bit flat, so I’m going to fade her at a very short price. #5 Jabber Now is the reluctant top choice. This one may be a head-scratcher at first given the 1 for 16 record and 13-month layoff, but I just don’t like any of the competition in this race. Jabber Now has proven the ability to rate, and I imagine the pace up front will be very hot, with Diosa, Bellazano, Queen Carmelita, and At the Margin all gunning for the lead. The 1 for 16 record is certainly not encouraging, but it isn’t as bad as it seems if you discard the 6 turf races where she was clearly on the wrong surface and the 1 race over an off track she did not care for. She has apparently been working strong in the mornings in preparation for this return, but this is not a pick you can feel super confident in. I will be spreading deep here as I don’t want to be right about the 8/5 favorite losing but not having the right longshot on top. #3 Bellazano is likely my pick for the best of the speeds. I already covered that I do not trust Diosa, and Bellazano has speed figures at this distance and over this track that make her very competitive today. She appears to be in decent form and returns to a track she likes. It is likely we haven’t seen the best this now 4-year-old has to offer. #1 Laker Jet is one of two who has proven the ability to pass other horses and sustain a bid beyond 5.5 furlongs. Laker Jet should get a great stalk and pounce trip when the speed begins falling apart. There are certainly some class concerns at play, and a trainer not known for success at Santa Anita, but at least she should be fit on the cutback and coming strong late.
Race 5: [F]Clm 25000n2L 1 Mile (T)
Picks: 8,9 / 4 / 1
#8 Invincibella finally gets the class relief she has so desperately been needing as she drops in for a tag for the first time. Versatile miss has the ability to close or sit just off the pace, which should prove useful here as there are a number of speedsters signed on and the pace should be hot. She has been working strong in the mornings, and she appears to just tower over this field from a class and speed figure perspective. The pick. #9 Point Hope is another who may wake up on the class drop. She has done her best work on the synthetic surfaces so far, but she’s bred to handle turf routing just fine. Pace should be honest, so I imagine she will be another coming strong late. It is a bit alarming to note the steady regression in her speed figures over her last handful of starts, but she does have a right to improve here second off the bench. #4 Tinnie had to drop all the way to maiden claiming 20k last out to break her maiden, but she did so like a 3/5 horse should when blasting an overmatched field. Prat is familiar with the mount and gets back aboard, and she should get first run on some of the other deeper closers. Note that Mandella is an absurd 58% (10 for 19) in claiming races over the last 3 years. Never easy facing winners for the first time, but she appears to be heading the right direction. Don’t completely ignore #1 Greater Glory. Many will dismiss this 5-year-old mare based on the unknown connections and 1/23 lifetime record, but I believe this one has a chance to surprise. By Into Mischief and out of a Mr Greeley dam, this one should really enjoy the grass, and she has hit the board twice out of her four turf starts. She was freshened up briefly before returning at Los Alamitos, and now returns to grass and has a history of mild improvement second off the layoff. She is a dead closer, but she should get a hot pace in front of her and she draws well with the inside post, especially advantageous with the rails being out. It might be asking a lot for her to end up in the winner’s circle, but she’s one to consider using underneath as she will be coming strong late as the dueling leaders begin to tire.
Race 6: [F]OC 40000n1x 1 Mile
Picks: 5 / 1 / 3
#5 Savvy Gal is the top pick in a competitive field of up-and-coming 3-year-old fillies. She possesses loads of natural speed, but she has also proven that she does not need the lead to be effective when stalking the pace in her debut. She’s trying dirt for the first time, but out of Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense she should handle the surface just fine. Rosario is in the irons, who is a red-hot 38% so far this meet since returning to California. He should have plenty of options from the outside draw, and she appears the one to beat. #1 Gingham took a while to finally break her maiden, an unusual pattern for Baffert-trained horses, and she was thrown to the wolves a bit when up against 2 of the division’s leading juvenile fillies in Bast and Donna Veloce in the Grade 1 Starlet last out. It’s unclear just how talented this filly might be, but she’s run fast enough to contend in this spot and has very strong connections. Lack of that finishing ability could prove troublesome, and her last workout was uncharacteristically slow for a Baffert horse, but I’m likely willing to give her another chance. I probably won’t be going much deeper than the top 2 selections in this race, most likely singling Savvy Gal, but #3 Shanghai Keely is one who could fly under the radar a bit. I think you get better value than the 3-1 ML indicates, as these connections typically don’t get bet much at Santa Anita. Ari Herbertson was firing at 32% in 2019, and is an astounding 40% when 3rd off the layoff over the last 3 years. Her effort in the G2 Sorrento in defeat actually makes her competitive here on speed figures alone, and the winner of that race Amalfi Sunrise was incredibly highly regarded until being forced into early retirement. She improved second off the layoff last out, and with further improvement and a return to dirt she could pull off the surprise.
Race 7 [S]Mdn 55k 5½ Furlongs (T)
Picks: 9,1 // 3
Race 7 provides our first turf dash of the day, with a field of 9 freshly turned 3-year-olds. #9 Rookie Mistake is the top selection. Far too many times have I seen Doug O’Neill with a Reddam Racing Square Eddie homebred switch to turf and romp to not use this horse. The initial turf debut was strong, as he came up just a bit short when bet down to 6/5 favoritism and making the lead. He was clearly in over his head in the stakes race that followed, but a return to maiden company nearly got him home last time out on the dirt. He has ample early speed and now returns to the surface I think he prefers. He needs to prove he can sustain that early speed for the final 1/16th, but back on turf against state-bred company, I think he gets the job done today. #1 Coalinga Road is the very close second choice. This gelding flashed strong early foot in his debut before tiring badly late in the stretch while dueling between horses the entire race. Carla Gaines horses very rarely win first out, as she typically races them into shape, so I expect a better effort from him here today. Note that Gaines is 24% over the last 3 years with horses making their first start on grass with a +$2.23 ROI. Beyond the top 2 selections, the pickings get a little more complicated. #3 Big Billy is the first time starter I’m most interested in. While the trainer Dunham has not had much success in 2019, especially with turf starters, there are enough positives here for me to take a shot at 15-1. Strong rider Abel Cedillo takes the mount, which is something I typically note when leading riders get up for small barn or low percentage trainers. There is also tons of turf pedigree, as both Mr Big (Dynaformer) and Street Boss get 15% winners with horses trying turf for the first time. He exits a strong 47.4 workout last out, and the pattern suggests he may be fit enough.
Race 8: [F]MC 20000 6½ Furlongs
Picks: 7,4,5 / 3,9
Race 8 appears to be a pretty open affair depending on how you feel about the morning line favorite. My top pick here is the longshot of the day #7 Suezaana. In a field full of relatively cheap maiden claimers who haven’t flashed much real ability, I almost always prefer a horse with the ability to be on or near the lead. Suezaana has some early speed but has also shown the ability to pass horses when needed. Her speed figures have improved in each of her last 3 starts, and she has hit the board twice in her 2 tries at Santa Anita. She has strong early pace and respectable turn times for this field, so she’s one I’m using prominently in a field of somewhat uninspiring maidens. #4 Manresa is one who likely did not get enough respect by the 4-1 ML after coming home strongly late to just miss by a nose in her debut. The show horse from that race came back to win next out, and with any improvement she is a huge threat here. Still, the cutback to a sprint seems puzzling given her strong debut at a route, and Tom Bell doesn’t have the best record with horses coming back off of medium (46-90 day) layoffs, as he’s 0/32 the last 3 years. #5 Buyback is the last logical threat, as she also has early speed and an aggressive rider in Maldonado. Her race 2 back was very strong, as the winner and show horse both came back to win, but she did not appear to have the same spark off the layoff last out. Another contender in an open race. #9 Katsaros is the obvious pick here, as she gets huge class relief and switches surface to dirt. While her speed figures on turf make her competitive here, she has never run on dirt, and note that the Sadler – Hronis normal jockeys Rosario and Prat do not take this mount, and NorCal rider Cerapio Figueroa ends up on board instead. I can’t help but feel like the barn just doesn’t know what to do with this one, as she has tried turf sprinting, turf routing, maiden special weight, maiden claimers, back to maiden special weight, and this drop to maiden claiming and switch to dirt feels more desperate than strategic. She likely needs to be used on horizontal tickets, but I would try to beat her in anything vertical or for win bets. #3 Chirp is another with early speed who figures to contend for the lead. While she has hit the board a few times, she wasn’t within 10 lengths of the winner in those efforts so it’s tough to feel great about her chances here.
Race 9: [F]Alw 50000s 1 Mile (T)
Picks: 9,3,2 / 5,6
We have another price play slated on top for the nightcap, with the #9 Flying to the Line getting top honors. The outside draw with the rails up could prove tricky, and it is always incredibly dangerous to claim off of Peter Miller, but this filly has tons of speed in a race where I think it’s likely the winner will be near the lead. This surely isn’t a lone speed scenario, but I feel she is likely the classiest of all the speeds and has already run competitive races at this level. Her turf form is respectable and she’s a proven miler already, so I’ll take a shot with a price I can’t pass up. #3 Untouched Elegance is the other speed who will threaten for the lead, and she has drawn more favorably. If Flying to the Line doesn’t respond on the barn change or fails to break, Untouched Elegance could inherit a fairly easy lead and prove tough to run down on the front. Baltas has been absolutely owning the turf at Santa Anita so far this meet, and despite losing to weaker last out she has already proven she can compete at this level. Expect her to improve second off the layoff. #2 Querelle is the morning line favorite, and it is always risky to fade a Peter Miller horse on grass in California. Miller hits at 29% first off the claim, and gets the services of dominantly leading rider Rosario on board. The connections are outstanding, and the class relief will help, but you have to question how short of a price do you want on a horse who is a dead closer and only 1 for 7 on the board since coming to the US a year ago.