Welcome back to Santa Anita! After a very strong series of days where we made money, it appears we were due for a bad day that finally caught up to us last week. It’s hard to be too tough on oneself for missing picks when as many bombs came in as they did last Friday. In fact, the someone took down the single ticket jackpot pick 6 last week for over $700k. Let’s put that day behind us and try to redeem ourselves today!
2020 Winter Santa Anita Statistics
Last Week: 13% (1/8 win, 4/8 ITM), $0.83 ROI per $2 win bet ($16 wagered, $6.60 returned)
Santa Anita Winter 2020: 38% (12/32 win, 26/32 ITM), $3.91 ROI per $2 win bet ($64 wagered, $125.22 returned)
Race 1: [S] Mdn 55k 5½ Furlongs (T)
Picks: 1,4 / 2,6
We kick things off with a turf sprint for California bred or sired maidens. If you’ve followed along, you’ve probably noticed that for the last few weeks I’ve been fading the inside posts and early speed on these turf sprints. Well, in the last 2 weeks the trend has seemed to evaporate, as speed is playing strong once again, and there have been a few winners from the inside posts lately. The change in apparent bias allows me to go with #1 A Man’s Man as the top choice. Brian Koriner is off to a red-hot start, hitting at 30% so far this meet, and now this horse gets a substantial rider upgrade to Joel Rosario. Mucho Macho Man is turning into a fairly productive sire, although his progeny don’t typically excel on grass, getting just 6% winners on first time turf. The City Zip on the bottom half of the pedigree does suggest he might take to the turf, however, and going dirt to turf is a profitable move for Koriner the last 3 years. #4 Watch The Dip is the most promising of the first-time starters. Reddam Racing Square Eddie homebred goes out for O’Neill and Gutierrez, so the connections are strong. Pedigree screams turf sprint on top, but more of a stamina influence on the bottom. O’Neill does well with first time starters in general, but is only 5% with debut turf runners the last 3 years. #2 Jetovator is a horse who has burned quite a bit of money so far in his career. The now-4-year-old gelding rarely runs a poor race, but he’s starting to pile up a bit too many excuses for me to comfortably support him as the top pick at a short price. Eurton has been cold this meet, and while Jetovator is clearly a great bet to hit the board, I think I’ll look for a fresh face to jump up and improve.
Race 2: [F]Clm 20000 6 Furlongs
Picks: 2,4 / 6 / 1
Race 2 has the ingredients for a pace meltdown, as 3-4 of these runners are true need-the-lead types or do their best running just off of the pace. However, I think one of these speed horses is massively superior to the others, so despite the tough pace scenario I’m going with #2 Busy Paynter on top. This filly had everything her own way last out, setting a moderate pace on a loose lead and cruising to an easy win. However, if you look further back in her form you can see she is capable of carving out some seriously fast fractions when necessary. I expect her to have to contend with pace pressure from #1 Rattle and #5 No Wine Untasted, but I think Busy Paynter may just be good enough to put them away by the second call and still hold off the closers. #4 Rizzi’s Honors is a deserving morning line favorite, and she does figure to sit an ideal trip behind the dueling leaders but still be within striking distance. She crushed a starter allowance field last out, but that was a fairly soft bunch over a course she really thrives on. She now returns to Santa Anita, a strip where she is only 1/14 lifetime. #6 Mongolian Groom did not pick up her feet last out as the prohibitive even money favorite, and Cerin now wheels her back on one week’s rest. This is a slightly easier group than she was facing last out, but it’s hard to forgive that complete non-effort. She does expect to get another honest pace to chase at here, but not sure how confident one can be. While I’m not sure that she is really good enough to win in this field, #1 Rattle probably is not as poor as that last race would have you think. She was fractious when loading and got away from the assistant starter, where she ran halfway up the track before being caught. Rather than scratching her, she was reloaded and sent off to race, where she clearly already expended energy and wasn’t fit to run. While I think Busy Paynter will give Rattle all she can handle, the rail has been playing strong, winning at 27% this meet, so perhaps with the addition of blinkers she can just run them off their feet early.
Race 3: [F]OC 40000n1x 11/16 Mile
Picks: 4 / 2
Race 3 is another race that, despite a short field, appears to be loaded with early speed. 3 of the 5 runners only won in wire-to-wire fashion, and 1 of the remaining 2 is a speedy sprinter stretching out to 8.5 furlongs for the first time ever. This is a case where pace may truly make the race, so I’m going with a horse that appears a little too slow on paper in longshot of the day #4 Meso. You may not think a 6/1 is exactly a longshot, but she’s the longest shot in this short field and will play significantly larger in vertical and horizontal exotics. Meso is the only horse in this field who truly does her best running from off the pace, and I anticipate there will be a very fast and contested pace in this event. Ignore the turf and AW starts where she was on the wrong surface, and draw a line through her race on October 20th where she had an absolute nightmare trip as the heavy chalk. Her speed figures aren’t that far off of what most of these others are running, and she projects to get a perfect pace setup. Note that the winner of her last, Carressa, went on to win a graded stakes (on turf), and the place horse, Persepolis, came back to win next out at this same level. While she never threatened those two, she was over 13 lengths clear of the rest of the field. #2 Velvet Queen is a horse I’ve written about multiple times, and she’s beaten me twice and nearly did it again last time out when losing by a neck to previously mentioned Persepolis. Velvet Queen set a hot pace that day, proved best of the speed, and nearly held off the late runners before finally succumbing deep in the stretch. In another situation, she’d be an easy top selection, but she is getting another contested pace scenario here today and also has to stretch out an extra 1/16th of a mile compared to last time. Might just be that good, but inclined to wait and see.
Race 4: [F]Clm 32000 1 Mile (T)
Picks: 4,1 / 5
#4 Avalon Ride is the top selection in the fourth race of the day. This race sets up to have yet another contested pace, with at least 4 horses likely to be duking it out on the lead. Avalon Ride should get an excellent pace to run at to set up her late kick. Her last race was a bit of an unusual affair, as one horse got loose and opened up 10 lengths on the rest of the field setting crazy fractions, but nobody was ever beating the ultimate winner Sapphire Kid that day. However, Avalon Ride arguably ran the second-best race that day, as she was 2-3 wide around both turns and still was only beaten by a head by rival Quinnie. Speaking of whom, #1 Quinnie is the second pick. Her effort last out wasn’t quite as impressive as Avalon Ride, as she saved all the ground the entire race and just tipped out wide in the stretch to barely get a head in front for the place. She once again gets a rail draw, her fourth in a row (!), so it isn’t out of the question she gets a good trip yet again. The right trip combined with a hot pace could set her up enough to get the job done today. I would be remiss if I didn’t at least address the horse who got me my 20 seconds of Twitter fame, #5 Flying to the Line. This one-time top selection of mine came through at incredibly generous odds of 25-1 last out. I loved her in that race, as I felt she was one of only two possible speed horses, and she seemed to be the classier of the two. Well, she set honest fractions that day and ran them all off their feet. That being said, she has a lot of other speed to deal with today, and while I do think she is the best of the speed, it’s tough to imagine this race being won wire-to-wire unless the course is playing exceptionally speed friendly.
Race 5: Alw 25000s 6½ Furlongs
Picks: 7, 6 / 1,3
#7 Oil Can Knight is the top selection in race 5. He owns a very strong 4 of 6 lifetime record when racing over a fast track, including wins at this distance and over this local track. Gelding certainly has speed, and he does his best running on the front end. There only appears to be one other horse who may try to contend for the lead, #1 Dark Hedges, but I’m not convinced that one has the staying power to deal with Oil Can Knight pressuring him from the outside draw for more than a few furlongs. Rosario takes the mount, and as long as he is aggressive and gets this one into the pace scenario early, I think it will be him they have to catch late. #6 Italiano is a strong favorite, as his last 2 speed figures make him a standout, including when putting in a strong winning performance at this level 2 back. If Oil Can Knight can’t put away Dark Hedges early enough, Italiano figures to be the beneficiary to run him down late. However, it’s worth noting that this one has never been able to last beyond 6 furlongs, and that last romping score came going at only 5.5 furlongs at Los Alamitos. He’ll certainly be part of the picture late, but wonder if he just hangs a bit in the final 1/16th. #3 Freiburg has been a win machine lately, but I just don’t know how much I can trust the quality of those Emerald Downs races or the unusually high speed figures recorded there. If those turn out to be legit, he could be an absolute steal at 3/1, but I’m inclined to watch one where he faces the local competition over dirt before biting.
Race 6: [F]OC 80000n1x
Picks: 5, 1 / 2
Race 6 gives us a group of promising 3-year-old fillies going one mile on the turf. #5 Blue Sky Baby is the top selection. This race appears to lack a true front-runner, which leads me to believe the pace could be on the moderate side. Blue Sky Baby has the ability to make the lead, but she can also rate, as she sat off the pace and pounced in her debut score. Her main pace rival could honestly be her stablemate, #2 Carpe Vinum, but I’m always skeptical to back horses who just broke their maiden and are now facing winners for the first time. However, she did wake up on the stretch-out last time, and any further improvement makes her dangerous here. If one of the D’Amato entries doesn’t get the score, #1 Little Bird is the next likeliest winner. This 2-time winner overseas didn’t seem quite ready for her stateside debut last out, when she was off slow and running at the back of the pack for the majority of the race before passing a few tiring rivals late. I think she will be more fit exiting that race, as she now gets second off the layoff for a hot Baltas barn. Rosario had options in this race yet ends up here; doesn’t hurt that he is hitting at 40% with Baltas the last 60 days. Note that this filly was more of a pace presence in both of her wins across the pond. I would expect Rosario to get her a little more involved early, as she seems to do some of her better running closer to the lead.
Race 7: MC 30000 11/16 Mile
Picks: 3,9 / 4,5,7
The nightcap gives us a field of 9 maidens going out for a 30k tag, and I want to get a little creative and go for a bit of a price in #3 Handsome Michael. This son of Temple City has plenty of early speed, and I always prefer a horse that has tactical speed in these lower level maiden races. Furthermore, his career best race came when going two-turns on the dirt back at Del Mar, where he set relatively quick fractions and held on until the deep stretch before getting swallowed up late. He doesn’t have the true sprinters speed to make the lead going short, but he still held on to run a decent race to romping winner Benny Chang and next-out winner Big Hoof Dynamite in his last race. The 10-pound bug just needs to get this one out of the gate cleanly, and if he gets the lead with honest fractions I think he could prove difficult to catch. #9 Promise Nothing is a very close second choice. Fuentes appeared to try new tactics last time, as this closer attempted to press the pace last out before tiring late and coming up empty in the stretch. Blinkers come off here, so I’d expect him to be a little more relaxed and revert to his late running or mid-pack style. In his race 2 back at Los Alamitos, he was coming home strong late and galloped out well clear of the winner, suggesting that any added ground might be his friend. Becerra is 20% at first time routers with a small sample size (2/10), and TJ and Becerra have won 2 of their last 5 races together. #5 Blues Rapper probably demands respect off the monumental class drop, but the inconsistent race pattern, surface switch, and class drop suggest to me this could be more dumping a horse the barn no longer wants rather than truly spotting him where he can win. Gaines is 0/31 going from maiden special weight to maiden claiming the last 3 years. #4 Itsthattime is the morning line favorite, but he’s had a few chances at this level and hasn’t been able to get it done yet. Bejarano has had a terrible start to the meet, as he’s 0/38, although Bonde has been strong (36%). A logical contender, but a very vulnerable favorite who I’d prefer to play against.