We are back at Santa Anita for more Friday racing action! We had another outstanding day last week, giving out 5 of 8 top selection winners, missing the last race by the slimmest margins in a photo finish. The card felt chalky last week, and for the most part it was tough to find prices. Today’s card is definitely not one of the stronger days of racing that Santa Anita has seen lately, with only 7 races carded and an average field size of 6.4 horses. However, I think there are some vulnerable favorites, and I love a few medium-priced horses, so let’s see if we can make some money anyway!
Note that Santa Anita is expecting rain tonight. I’m playing this as if they are on the turf, but if that changes, I will post updates to my Twitter @CalebWVU.
2020 Winter Santa Anita Statistics
Last Week: 63% (5/8 win, 7/8 ITM), $3.08 ROI per $2 win bet ($18 wagered, $24.60 returned)
Santa Anita Winter 2020: 33% (8/17 win, 15/17 ITM), $5.06 ROI per $2 win bet ($34 wagered, $86.02 returned)
Race 1: [F]Clm 12500n2L 1 Mile
Picks: 4,3 / 5
We kick off the card with a pretty brutal race all around, with a group of 6 fillies competing to score that second lifetime victory. My top selection here is the #4 Shanghai Barbie. Truthfully, it’s tough to feel strongly about any of these horses, as none of them have run up to the speed figure par in recent races. However, Shanghai Barbie is one who I think who is lightly raced and has a few reasons why she may improve. She is a newly turned four-year-old, and horses this young are often still developing and improving as they mature. While her last race wasn’t great, she was 5-wide into both turns and lost tons of ground in her first start off of a 2-month layoff. She also has shown that she does not particularly care for the Los Alamitos bull ring configuration, as those are some of her worst efforts on dirt. She now returns to the scene of her two career best efforts at Santa Anita. She has the tactical speed to be dangerous, and the mile trip should suit her just fine. #3 Zillinda is the next choice. Before you groan too loudly over a 6-year-old mare who is 1/22 lifetime, let’s take a deeper look. She is 0/12 with only 3 ITM finishes over the turf, but a more respectable 1/10 with 5 ITM finishes on dirt. She was also repeatedly thrown in against too-tough maiden special weight company for a significant number of races before connections ultimately got realistic and spotted her where she belongs. The record improves even more at Santa Anita, where she scored her lone win and has hit the board in 62% of her tries. I think she has potential to be surprisingly quick from the gate if she is sharp off the layoff, and this is the lowest claiming level she’s seen in her career. I think we’ll get every bit and more of that 3-1 morning line. #5 Flying Blue projects to go off favored despite the morning line. She is also a lightly raced 4-year-old, and has shown 2 strong efforts over the dirt. She’s likely to set or sit just off the pace, and her connections are strong compared to most of this bunch. However, note that she only beat 3 other horses in her maiden special weight victory when she was allowed to set a snail’s pace on the lead all by her lonesome. Have to imagine she won’t get a perfect setup again, and it’s always tough facing winners for the first time. Not sure I understand the favoritism on the #6 Reds Sacred Appeal. She’s a paltry 1/15 lifetime who has never run a race in her career fast enough to win today, and there doesn’t appear to be a ton of pace to set up her closing kick. While I understand her last effort was a little better, I’ll need much better than 2/1 to consider her at all.
Race 2: [F]MC 20000 1 Mile
Picks: 4 / 2,1
If you hoped Race 2 was going to provide horses with more consistent form, I have bad news for you. We have a short field of 5 maidens going out for a 20k tag, and I can honestly make a case for 4 of them. The top pick is #4 Manresa. Many of these horses have already shown the extent of their ability, but Manresa is the one with the most upside. She was barely beaten a nose in her debut at 1 mile, then ran an even race off of a 2-month layoff in a sprint when Blanc lost the whip late in the stretch. The show horse from her debut came back to win next out, including beating a foe she faces in today’s race. She seems like one who will be very happy to see 2-turns again, and any move forward makes her very dangerous against a weak bunch. #2 Gotta Be Lucky is a bit of a polarizing horse. On Brisnet speed figures, both of her strongest races have come going a mile, which she’s only tried twice before. However, Brisnet notoriously gives Los Alamitos races higher speed figures than what is probably accurate. So, is she truly better at a mile, or are those figures a red herring due to the specific track? Either way, she is one of only 2 horses in this field who have early speed, and she gets the bug jockey who will likely try to get her on the lead early. She’s improved in each of herr last 3 starts since the April layoff, so a continuation of that pattern makes her a fit here. #1 Lilly’s Storm is a complete wildcard. She is getting a massive class drop, as there are a lot of landing places between turf maiden special weights and a dirt maiden claiming race for a cheap 20k tag. Have to wonder why trainer wouldn’t at least try dirt in special weight company or even MC50 before sending her to the bottom barrel claimer level. Trainer only has 3 starts in 2019, all with this horse, but the curious part is that Prat elects to take the mount. Normally I’d love the angle of a top jock taking a mount for an obscure trainer, but at 5/2 there’s no value here for me. This is honestly a good race to skip, single, or hit the ALL button.
Race 3: Mdn 55k 5½ Furlongs (T)
Picks: 5,6,4 / 5,1
Race 3 finally brings us a race with a respectable sized field and a few horses who appear to be of some quality. We should start by making it clear that I’m against both favorites this race in #2 Silenced and #7 Sky Jumper. As highlighted last week, speed has not been good at all in these turf sprints, which goes against the preferred style of Silenced. This one appears to be going backwards in form, and Cedillo lands on another mount here, although getting Prat aboard is far from a downgrade. With speed playing poorly, I can’t take a horse I’m unsure on at the low price of 2/1. As for Sky Jumper, I’ve said before that I’m rarely interested in Baffert horses who debut on turf. Baffert gets 33% first time starter winners, but only 17% on turf, half his normal rate with a terrible -$0.93 ROI. Unraced at 3, this one is now 4-years-old and gelded before his first start, all red flags. Jump Start, the sire, only gets 4% debut turf winners. Pass. #5 Odysseus is the top pick here as well as the longshot of the day. By strong turf sire Candy Ride, the dam Charm the Giant was also a graded stakes winner on turf. Odysseus is a half sibling to turf graded stakes winner Liam the Charmer, as well as a half sibling to synthetic listed stakes winner Charm the Maker. Turf pedigree galore exists for this one who goes out for a trainer who is red hot right now in Mandella, firing at 31% this meet. The pick. #6 Onceinabluemoon is the second pick, at generous odds that might be even higher come post time. If you haven’t been paying attention, Italian invader Umberto Rispoli has been excellent on turf races so far, winning with 22% of his mounts. It’s quite curious to see that Koriner debuted this one in a quarter horse affair at Los Alamitos, where he took all the money to flop as the even money favorite. I don’t understand that placement at all, as this one has excellent pedigree to go farther than 870 yards, and Malibu Moon offspring do just fine on the grass. Not sure what to expect from this one, but with a hot jockey on a generous price I’m willing to give him a shot when trying to beat the favorites. In keeping the longshot streak going, I’m looking towards the #4 Big Headed Baby as another who could pull off the upset. His debut race was far from bad, as he ran an even 5th, then was sent to the shelf for 7 months. While it’s concerning to see a horse leave the O’Neill barn, Knapp is having a strong meet of his own so far hitting at 25%, and this one has been working steady and fast for the past month in preparation for his return. Encouraging to see strong rider Cedillo take the mount. #5 Big Cheddar hasn’t been in a race for over 16 months, but he’s since been gelded, his work tab is strong, and O’Neill does reasonably well on layoffs. Note that while he was well beaten in his debut, there is no shame in losing to the likes of eventual 3-year-old stars Improbable and Gray Magician. Finally, #1 Tyrannical Rex is one who I think needs considered on deeper tickets. While the post is poor, he is the only proven closer in this field, which should play strongly to the perceived bias. He has a knack for finding trouble, as he was steadied twice in his debut, steadied again in his next race, stumbled out of the gate 2 back, and was off slow and wide in his most recent affair. Note the place and show horses of that contest both returned to win next out. Hopefully the addition of blinkers can help this one break cleaner and avoid trouble, because if he does, he could be flying late at a big price.
Race 4: [F]MC 30000 6 Furlongs
Picks: 3 / 1 / 4
Race 4 is another where many will likely single heavy favorite #1 It’s a Riddle, but I’m inclined to go another direction. While you have to respect his effort last time out, that race was won by a 54-1 first time starter. The show horse, Rickie Nine Toes, came back to flop again as the heavy chalk last weekend when beaten by yet another debut runner. Additionally, It’s a Riddle has never been able to back up a strong race with another good effort. In her debut, she ran a good second place, then regressed badly to run last next out. She then fired another strong second place effort as the even money favorite, only to run third, beaten over 7 lengths as the 4/5 favorite in her next race. Her last race was yet another strong effort, but she has established a bit of a good race/bounce race pattern, so I’m taking the position she will regress today and flop as a heavy favorite. #3 La Rosa Drive is the top selection. While I’m not a fan of the common race all of these horses are exiting, I can make the most excuses for her. That was her first start in over 7 months, and she made the lead and set a pressured pace for about 5 furlongs before finally tiring late. I’m expecting her to be more fit for her second start off the layoff, and this time she should get the outside pressing position and turn the tables on It’s a Riddle. Honestly, there aren’t many other horses I find attractive here, but I suppose the case can be made for #4 Queen Arya. She never picked up her feet in that debut race, but Baltas trainees rarely win first time out (5%). Perhaps she will be tuned up a little tighter for this affair, although in my opinion it seems like turf will ultimately be her better game.
Race 5: OClm 40000 1 Mile (T)
Picks: 7,5 / 4,6
Race 5 is my favorite race of the day, and the one race where I’m most excited to make some money. I’ve been representing for Rispoli the last 2 weeks, and already picked him once, so you know I’m going back to the well here with #7 Fly the Sky. Unlike the turf sprints, the turf routes have been very speed favoring so far this meet, especially with the rails out as they are today. Fly the Sky has ample early speed, but he isn’t a true need-the-lead type, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rispoli take a more patient approach and rate him just off the pace from his outside draw. This one broke his maiden against special weight company at this track and at this distance, so you know the trip fits. He is the best speed horse in this field, and I expect him to take the lead at the 3/16thpole and easily hold off the late runners. #5 Brickyard Ride is the second pick. While I’m usually the type to play against horses who just broke their maiden, I get the impression that the price on this colt will make him great value. He clearly has speed, as he wired a dirt sprint while setting honest fractions last out. He is by outstanding turf sire Clubhouse Ride (Candy Ride), who gets 18% first time turf winners. Additionally, Craig Lewis has excellent statistics with both first-time turf (21%) and first-time route (19%). Couple that with the recent results when Lewis and Velez pair up (27% with an absurd $11.42 ROI) and you have a live longshot who is a must use. #4 Commander is one who I won’t let beat me, but I’m not really sure that a mile is his best game. He sat a half-length off a slow pace last out and still faded in only a 4 horse field. Both of his wins have come over soft ground overseas, so perhaps the firmer west coast turf courses are not to his liking. #6 Governor Cinch is another trying turf for the first time. He was putting together a solid campaign in the fall of 2019 before finding the waters a little too deep in stakes company last out. He returns to an easier spot today, and on dirt he’d be the top threat. Remains to be seen how he handles the grass, as there isn’t much pedigree to lean on and Yakteen is an adequate 11% going dirt to turf. Drayden getting back up is a huge plus, as he was aboard for the last win.
Race 6: [F]Clm 12500
Picks: 4,6 / 3
I’m taking another shot against the a vulnerable favorite here and making the #4 Conformation the top pick. While one would think Conformation should excel on grass, being by Medaglia d’Oro and out of a Leroidesanimaux dam, that hasn’t been the case. This mare is a poor 0/8 on the grass, and it appears Cecil and company finally figured out that she prefers the main track. Since switching to dirt, she owns a record of 5-3-0-1 over a fast track, including a win and a place in her two tries over the local strip. She appears to be heading the right direction, and a repeat of her last race would make her very tough against this bunch today. There appears to be enough speed signed on to make for an honest pace, so I think she gets the dream trip behind dueling leaders and should have a stamina edge on the cutback to 7 furlongs to hold off the late runners in the stretch. #6 Rattle is the next choice. While there are other speed horses signed on here, none of them have the pure sprinter’s speed that Rattle possesses. Perhaps the #1 Beau Rocket will try to go with her early, but if so that likely ends both of their chances. Rattle has never shown an ability to rate, so game plan for Fuentes should be obvious; send hard early and play catch me if you can. Not sure how well she’s going to be able to stay on for the challenging 7 furlongs, as she’s unproven past 6.5 furlongs, but she appears to be the speed of the speed and one to take seriously. #3 Bragging Rights is a tough horse to like given her 0/12 record at Santa Anita and winless 2019 campaign. Couple that with the trainer switch to a low percentage barn, and it’s very likely she’ll be the longest shot on the board. While I don’t think she is today’s likeliest winner, I also think there are a few reasons why she may run better today than her form indicates. She hasn’t had a favorable pace setup in quite a long time, as most of her races lately have found her trying to close from last into moderate fractions going 5.5 or 6 furlongs. When stretched out to a two-turn route, she ultimately came up flat, but I think this extended sprint at the one-turn 7-furlong distance could be the perfect trip for her. She should certainly get an honest if not blazing pace to chase after given the presence of 2-3 speed horses, and I’d expect these sprinters stretching out to get leg-weary in the final furlong. Conformation is still the off-the-pace horse I like best, but this one will be a much larger price.
Race 7: Clm 25000n2L 5½ Furlongs (T)
Picks: 8,5,11(AE) / 10(AE)
The nightcap of the card brings us an overflow field of 11, 3 of which are waiting on the also-eligible list. We’ve already covered how poorly speed has fared on the turf sprints, but note that the inside posts have also been terrible as well. Through the 15 turf sprints so far this meet, posts 1 and 2 are a combined 0/30. I’ll be targeting a mid to outer drawn off the pace type, which leads me straight to #8 Cunning Munnings. This gelding was initially meant for turf, as he debuted this summer in maiden special weight company at a turf sprint. He was off a bit slowly that day, fairly typical for horses making their first start, and he ran an even race to make up some ground late in a race that was dominated by horses on the lead. Glatt gave him a drop and switched to dirt and he responded well with a commanding victory before finding starter allowance company a little too tough. He gets a class drop today, and I think there is a ton of cheap speed in this race that should set up his big late rally perfectly. The January 6th workout was much stronger than the time indicates, and Cedillo gets back on board after having a chance to figure him out in that debut effort. #5 Exultation is the second pick, and the heavy morning line favorite at 8/5. On speed figures alone, this horse seems a cut above most of this field. However, note the spotty race record. He’s only raced 5 times in his career, and never more than twice in a given year or without a significant layoff between starts. He’s now 5-years-old and exits a voided claim, indicating there was yet another issue at play back in January 2019. While Eurton does well with layoffs, and Prat is the best turf jockey on the west coast, there are reasons to be hesitant in backing this one too strongly at too short of a price. There isn’t anyone else in the main body of the field that I’m interested in, but two of the also eligibles are intriguing. #11 Moonoverthebayou is the first. You already know that I’m over the moon for Rispoli, but this gelding also has the right closing run style that has been winning lately on turf sprints. He now gets third off the layoff after taking a step forward in his second start off the break last out, and I think he’ll take to the turf just fine, considering he’s by New Years Day (16% first time turf winners) and has handled the AW surface at Golden Gate already. #10 You Must Chill is the next pick. While he has shown front-runner tendencies when routing, he has the versatility to rate when sprinting. He’ll need the right ride from Mario, as he likely isn’t quick enough to make the lead but also won’t be able to outkick the deep closers if he’s taken too far back, but if he manages to get that stalking trip in that second flight of horses he could prove dangerous.