Welcome to Santa Anita! We had an outstanding beginning to kick off the meet last Friday, as our top selections went 3 of 9 including a $52.00 winner in the last race! Our longshot of the day in race 8 ran 2nd at odds of 20-1, setting up for some excellent exacta and DD payouts! While the top pick got home in 3 of 9 races, playing all of the A horses would have given you 8 of 9 winners, with the sole loser being the race where I tried to single and my only B horse ended up winning.
The bar has been set pretty high, so let’s keep the good times rolling this weekend!
2020 Winter Santa Anita Statistics
Last Week: 33% (3/9 win, 8/9 ITM), $6.82 ROI per $2 win bet ($18 wagered, $61.40 returned)
Santa Anita Winter 2020: 33% (3/9 win, 8/9 ITM), $6.82 ROI per $2 win bet ($18 wagered, $61.40 returned)
Race 1: [F]Mdn 55k 5½ Furlongs (T)
Picks: 1,2 / 5
Despite conventional wisdom and historical trends, the 5.5-furlong turf sprints at Santa Anita have not played very kindly to speed lately, quite a change from the downhill 6.5-furlong races we used to see. None of the 8 turf sprints this meet have been won wire-to-wire, and the winner was on average 2.5-3 lengths off the pace at the first call. That does not bode well for early favorite #7 Raneem. This Baffert trained filly is still a maiden after 6 starts, and it truly feels like the barn isn’t sure what to do with her at this point. They’ve tried dirt, then turf, and now back to turf; she debuted with blinkers, the hood came off after 2 races, and now she adds blinkers once again. There is a spotty race record with layoffs in between, and she wheels back on less than 10 days of rest, a move almost unheard of for the Baffert barn. There are enough question marks against her that I will be fading this favorite on a day where fields are short and prices might be hard to find. #1 Malibu Cat is my top selection. She ran a speed figure in her debut as a 2-year-old that would already make her competitive in this race, and she now makes her first start as a four-year-old off of an 11-month layoff. She appears to be working lights-out in the mornings, and Glatt is an average 13% with horses off 90+ day layoffs. Turf ace Prat climbs aboard, and I’m hopeful he will elect to rate her rather than send hard from the rail. With the right trip she is the one to beat. #2 Dance Costume is the lone debut runner in the field today. Mixed signals on the pedigree, as Union Rags offspring typically fare poorly on grass (3% first time turf winners) but the dam was a stakes winner sprinting on turf and has already produced 3 turf winners from 4 starters. Yakteen has strong numbers with debut turf runners, getting 29% winners over the past 3 years with a strong $5.47 ROI. Rosario sees fit to take the mount, which is always encouraging. #5 Lavender is the wildcard of the field. This lightly raced filly has run second in both of her starts to date in Ireland, and that was against fields of 14 and 15 horses, so she certainly won’t be intimidated by today’s group of 7. The major questions are that she hasn’t been seen for 15 months, and Matthew Chew has a terrible 0/40 record with horses coming off of 90+ day layoffs. If she’s fit she could surprise, but I’m inclined to watch one first.
Race 2: [F]Clm 16000n3L 6½ Furlongs
Picks: 2 / 4,1
#2 Busy Paynter appears to be the one to beat in the second race of the day. She dueled between horses last out against much better at Del Mar to finish a respectable fourth, beaten less than 2 lengths when in for open claiming company at $32,000. She gets a drop into nonwinners of 3 lifetime company and projects to be the one to catch on the front end. The #6 Winsinfashion is the other logical speed, but I believe Busy Paynter is quicker and classier and should be able to draw off late. #4 Leading Indicator is one of a few horses who will likely try to sit a stalking trip a length or two off the pace and make a move into the turn. Dean Pederson is a smaller barn, but he spots his horses well given his 24% strike rate throughout 2019. Toss the turf try where she didn’t care for the surface, and this looks like a 4-year-old who is peaking and heading the right direction in her form cycle while stepping up a bit in class. #1 Cimarron has been quite a hot commodity lately, having been through a number of decent barns across the country throughout 2019. She appeared to be inching forward late in 2019 but has since disappeared ever since the October race. She has a knack for breaking slowly, as she’s been “off slow” or “bobbled start” in her last 4 races, and missing the break is often even more detrimental for sprinters as she cuts back to 6.5 furlongs. She isn’t one I feel strongly about, but I struggle to find anyone I like beyond the top two picks in this spot.
Race 3: [F}OC 40000n1x 1 Mile
Picks: 1,4 / 2
Race 3 brings us a small but interesting field of older fillies and mares going a mile on the main track. This race is a unique handicapping puzzle as 4 of the 5 runners are listed as early/presser types, with the last runner an early speed need-the-lead sort. This race could very well set up with a nuclear pace up front, or if all the jockeys elect to rate we could see one horse steal it on the lead. That said, #1 Persepolis is the top selection. This lightly raced mare is 5-years-old but only raced 5 times, giving her every right to improve today. Expectations were clearly high for this one, as she sold for over $500k with a gorgeous turf pedigree and was sent to the Chad Brown barn. Pedigree aside, she appears to be better over the dirt, as she owns a win and two places in her 3 starts on the main track. She has early speed, but she also does not need the lead which gives Prat options in the irons. Her speed figures stack up favorably against most of this field, and her last try at a route was deceptively strong, as the winner freaked that day but Persepolis was still over 4 lengths clear of the show horse when sent off at odds of 4/5. The lukewarm top choice in a surprisingly tricky field. #4 Amatara is an interesting player here and a major threat in an open race. While her form may appear inconsistent at first, you’ll notice both of her poorer efforts lately came at Los Alamitos, a unique bull ring track with tight turns that some horses struggle to handle. She was also 3-wide for the majority of the race in her last effort on a day when Los Al received an unusual amount of rain during the day, forcing them to seal the track midway through the card. If you forgive that effort, her lone start at Santa Anita produced a monstrous race when she destroyed an overmatched maiden field when routing for the first time. A return to form of her maiden score likely puts her in the winner’s circle again today. #2 Velvet Queen is the slight morning line favorite in this field, and she is one that I will likely use somewhere but ideally want to beat. She got away with a slow pace last out when trying dirt for the first time, and she managed to hold on late to win in a starter allowance field. She now has to tackle two turns on the dirt for the first time, and there’s enough other speed in here to keep her honest. However, we truly haven’t seen just how good she might be over the main track, and she has enough early speed to burn early if the rider chooses. A defensive use.
Race 4: MC 50000 6½ Furlongs
Picks: 5,2 / 8 / 1,4
In what appears to be a continuation of short priced winners, I’m forced to take #5 Benny Chang on top in race 4. Peter Miller and Joel Rosario are perennially overbet on the west coast, but when they are winning at 38% together it makes them an awful dangerous combination to fade, regardless of the price. This son of Cross Traffic was a little wide when contesting an honest pace last out, and of the 3 horses fighting for the lead he was by far the best of the speeds, as the other leaders tired to finish 5th and 6th, including the 6/5 favorite. He has to negotiate an extra furlong today, but there doesn’t appear to be any other speeds entered today who can keep up with him on the front end. #2 Palace Prince is an interesting contender. This colt showed promise early, running third to Wrecking Crew and Tizamagician, both of whom are Derby hopefuls. Things haven’t gone quite as planned on the stretch out though, as he regressed significantly in his next 2 efforts when trying two turns. I think the cutback to sprinting distances, coupled with the barn switch, class drop, and first start as a gelding, can make this horse a contender in a bit of a weak field. No published works since December 20th is concerning, but Glatt has good numbers off of medium layoffs and I trust this one still has enough ability to get the job done. #8 Big Hoof Dynamite catches my attention purely due to the fact that top west coast jockey Prat climbs aboard for a relatively unknown trainer in Jay Nehf. I always take notice when top jockeys get up for small barns, and I have to think this horse is live for Prat to take the mount. There doesn’t appear to be any world-beaters in this spot, so this one doesn’t seem completely overmatched on speed figures if the trip fits.
Race 5: [F][S] MC 50000 6 Furlongs
Picks: 6,5 / / 3,7
Race 5 is a tough race, as I don’t like the early favorite but none of the first-time starters are very impressive either. While I’m not throwing the favorite out complete, I am going to use a different horse on top. Before getting into the rest of the field, let’s look at the early favorite, #5 Rickie Nine Toe’s. He ran a surprisingly strong race in debut going 5.5 furlongs at the generous price of 17-1, then looked every bit a winner in his next race when bet down to 4/5 favoritism only to get caught late by a 54-1 first time starter and ultimately fade to third. Note that race was at 6 furlongs and at maiden 30k vs the maiden 50k he faces today. Periban has poor stats with 1st off the claim (1/27) as well as first time blinkers (0/11). Factor in Bejarano’s cold start to the meet (0/20) and possible stamina issues, and this is a favorite who will be a short price and very vulnerable. My top selection is the #6 Nikkileaks. Nikkileaks got a solid education in her debut, taking dirt and passing a few horses to get up for a nonthreatening third late. She flashed speed in her next race, contesting the pace before tiring late. I’m not sure there is a ton of quality in this field, and the addition of blinkers and jockey change to Maldonado signal to me that Glatt wants this horse to show more speed and will have her winging it early. Glatt is 20% with first time blinkers and does well with horses on moderate layoffs, so I think this one could get loose early and prove tough to run down. If Nikkileaks and Rickie Nine Toe’s go toe-to-toe on the lead, I’m interested in #3 H and R’s Girl l to come running late. This one doesn’t seem to have much early speed in the AM, but she’s by precocious California sire Smiling Tiger (15% winners first out), out of Sassy Synner, who has already produced 10 winners from 12 starters, including 3 stakes winners. Don’t sleep on Rispoli Umberto, as this Italian invader has already proven he has talent when scoring a mild upset with a brilliant ride on Hootie in the nightcap last Sunday. #7 Smart Girl is the other half of the Krujac pair, and note that Efrain rides for Krujac occasionally and he lands here vs on H and R’s Girl. It sounds as if this one has been slightly outworking H and R’s Girl in the mornings, so she could be another with a shot in a race with bad favorites.
Race 6: [F]Clm 32000 5½ Furlongs (T)
Picks: 4 / 2,5 / 6
#4 Drift Away is the top selection in this turf sprint. We have already covered the developing track trends for turf sprints favoring late runners, so I’m looking for a horse with strong closing ability. There appears to be enough speed in here to keep the pace honest, and I think Drift Away is far and away the best closer in this field. She has won at this distance and over this surface before, and Andrew Lerner is a gaudy 44% when sending out horses second off the layoff. Toss the last race as it was on the wrong surface, and this mare has been competitive at and above the level she finds herself at today. #5 Bako Sweets is the second pick. While this 7-year-old mare has done her best work over the synthetic surface up north, she hasn’t embarrassed herself by any stretch while racing over the lawn. She was a decent fourth two-back when making her first start for Blake Heap off the heels of a 10-month layoff, and her last race was on dirt where she has never been at her best. Despite speed not holding particularly well so far, this one has better than average turn-time and should threaten early if she can improve at all from that October 18th effort. #2 Swirling is one who may get overlooked due to the barn change to low percentage trainer Perez, but don’t be too quick to throw her out. She is another who could sit a good stalking trip behind likely pacesetter Classy Atlantic, and her first race for the Perez barn was every bit as strong as her races for Sadler. Once again, ignore the clunker on the wrong surface in a race where she was in over her head and she could surprise at a generous price.
Race 7: OC 62500n2x 6½ Furlongs
Picks: 1 / 4,5
Race 7 leads me to a top pick that I would normally fade in most situations, #1 McKale. I am a firm believer in fading the non-superstar Baffert horses; those that don’t break their maiden in the first two tries, and generally whatever he sends out on the turf that didn’t debut on grass. This horse struggled mightily at n1x company for an extended period before being overmatched against graded stakes type Flagstaff and then flopping at the 3/2 favorite in September. However, the main reason I’m using him prominently here is the fact that he appears to be textbook lone speed. There is nobody in this field who can go with him early, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was able to open up a multiple length lead by the first call. He hasn’t turned into the superstar we’ve come to expect from Baffert, but you still cannot afford to ignore a lone speed horse with a rail draw getting the best connections on the west coast, as Drayden and Baffert are clipping along at 54% together from 28 mounts. I’m hoping the layoff gave him a much-needed rest and he will come out sharp today. #4 Manhattan Up comes in with more back class than most of this field, as he spent most of his three-year-old season running against the likes of Mucho Gusto, Roadster (the good version), Extra Hope, Nolo Contesto, and other highly regarded colts. He ran decently in his two turf tries, but I think dirt is definitely his best game. If McKale is unable to take them all the way, Manhattan Up is the one I like most to run them down. #5 Royal Trump is another who makes sense in this spot, and his last race was super impressive when tracking a slow pace to explode late for the upset at 34-1. However, that effort represents a career best for him, and it’s fair to question if he is likely to repeat such a performance while moving up in class. Glatt clearly has this one sharp right now, but if you missed the coming out party at 34-1 against weaker it’s a little tough to love him here at 2-1.
Race 8: [F][S]Mdn 55k 5½ Furlongs (T)
Picks: 2,7,10 // 3,6,8
The final race of the day is a bit of an oddly carded affair, as we get a field of only 8 with 5 also-eligibles waiting to draw in. #2 Bella Vita appears to be the most interesting of all the first-time-starters. This miss turned heads at the Ocala Breeder’s Sale in April when Kaleem Shah purchased her for $400k. Freshman sire Bayern is turning out to be quite a prolific turf influence, as he is getting 16% first time turf winners in his first crop. There is plenty of turf pedigree on bottom as well, as the dam was a black type stakes winner on turf and synthetic and is by strong turf influence Storm Cat. Watch the tote to check for action in this race, but I wouldn’t be surprised if her 7/2 morning line is more like 9/5 at post. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Reddam Racing Square Eddie homebreds sprinting on turf with Doug O’Neill and Mario Guitierrez are almost always dangerous. #7 Kissable U’s best effort came when sprinting on the turf against open company, and she now drops back into state-bred restricted company at her preferred distance and back on the grass. She is a major player in a wide-open race. Longshot of the day #10 Too Much Smoke is the AE who seems the biggest threat. While 5-1 may not scream longshot, I don’t believe we are going to see many double-digit odds winners today, so settling on a 5-1 horse as the 4th choice in an 8-horse field is as close as I can get. We already covered how dangerous Miller is at Santa Anita, and you can toss the debut effort where she missed the break and never picked up her feet on the dirt. She has a number of classy half-siblings, including graded stakes turf winner Marckie’s Water and promising allowance winner Opus Won. She will need to find a way to save a bit of ground, but I would expect a much better performance from her today than what we saw in the debut. I absolutely love Clubhouse Ride offspring debuting on turf, as this son of Candy Ride is producing first time turf winners at over 20% so far, so #3 Warren’s Empress is worth a look. While the connections haven’t had the strongest numbers at this meet or with debut runners, I’m willing to be forgiving when I’m getting 10-1 or better with excellent turf pedigree. Note that Velez’s lone win at Santa Anita so far this meet (via DQ) came aboard a Craig Lewis trainer horse, at incredible odds of 46-1. Worth a flier at a price