Welcome back to Santa Anita and Happy Valentine’s Day to all! We were off last week while on a mini vacation down to Tampa Bay Downs for the Sam F. Davis, where I got to see Sole Volante upset one of the early Derby favorites in Independence Hall in a thrilling race. We now turn our attention back to Santa Anita with hopes of continuing our very strong and profitable season. Note that the last week stats below reference the last week I wrote an article, 1/31, not 2/7 when I was off.
2020 Winter Santa Anita Statistics
Last Week: 29% (2/7 win, 5/7 ITM), $2.11 ROI per $2 win bet ($14 wagered, $14.80 returned)
Santa Anita Winter 2020: 36% (14/39 win, 31/39 ITM), $3.59 ROI per $2 win bet ($78 wagered, $140.02 returned)
Race 1: [S] Mdn 55k 5½ Furlongs (T)
Picks: 5,2 / 1,6
We start off with a group of 7 maidens going 6.5 furlongs on the main track. #5 Zippninthecity flashed some major early speed when making her debut going a mile on the turf, posting a very quick opening fraction of 22.2 when dueling inside on the lead before fading. She now gets class relief here, dropping from maiden 75k to maiden 30k, and she has every right to improve in her second career start. It’s tough to win a debut effort around two turns, and City Zip progeny typically do better sprinting than routing anyway. Cerin is 17% with a positive ROI when going route to sprint, and in a field where a few horses who will take money are already somewhat proven commodities, I prefer to take a chance with a horse that may have some upside. #2 Via Alpina takes the biggest class drop in racing, as she makes her first start for a tag today. She ran well enough in her first 2 starts before coming up empty last out, and she does have enough speed here to be dangerous on the cutback. It feels like she should have taken to the turf based on pedigree, but perhaps she will be better on the dirt after all. Expect her to be involved early, and with the class drop and surface switch she has a lot of potential upside. #1 Sassy and Hot may be the one of the longest shots on the board at post time, but I wouldn’t overlook her just yet. Sire Stormin Fever gets 8% first time winners, and Powell is 10% with horses debuting in maiden claiming races with a very strong $5.24 ROI. Thomas Trullier takes the mount, not a household name by any stretch, but he is a competent jockey who was winning at nearly 25% in France. The rail is winning at 25% this meet, and the workout spacing has been consistent enough to suggest she could be fit enough for this. #6 It’s A Riddle will likely go off as the post-time favorite, but this is a horse who has already tried and failed in multiple chances at this level. With 4 second place finishes from 6 starts, she’s overwhelmingly likely to hit the board, but tough to love this hanger on top at a short price. I feel I have seen enough of this filly to know what she brings to the table that I will prefer to look elsewhere for a horse who may improve enough to get the win.
Race 2: Clm12500n2L 61/2 Furlongs
Picks: 1 / 6 / 2
Race 2 appears to be a 2-horse race, and while I will use both prominently, I’m giving the nod to #1 Temple Knights. 5-year-old gelding just missed last out when rallying wide into a moderate pace, and he now gets his third start off the short layoff and makes his second start under the care of Andrew Lerner, who is 50% (4 of 8) the last 3 years with second off the claim runners. I think the extra furlong today should be to his liking, and he should get a great trip stalking a contested pace as the outside 4 runners all appear to do their best work on the lead. Of the speed horses, #6 Concord Jet is most interesting. He dueled from the inside post position, taking pace pressure for the entire race last time out before finally succumbing and yielding late. The tables are turned today, and he should be able to sit a more comfortable outside pressing position. Big question for him might be the distance, as he faded last time and now needs to stay on for an extra furlong today. #2 Derby Factor appears hopelessly out of form, and this isn’t a horse I’ll be using on Pick 5s or longer horizontals. However, I do think this one could be somewhat usable underneath. The outside speed horses all do their best running on the lead, and all of them have significant stamina concerns going beyond 5.5 furlongs. With a quick pace from stamina compromised horses, it wouldn’t be unheard of for a deep closer on a cutback and freshened up off the layoff to pass some tired rivals and hit the board at an enormous price.
Race 3: [F[S] MC 50000 6 Furlongs
Picks: 3 / 1,5
Race 3 is a brutal handicapping puzzle, as few of these horses have any established form at all, much less any dirt form. #3 Lady Ember is the top selection here. She made a pretty decent debut on dirt back in 2018 before having issues and missing most of the 2019 season. She returned off the lengthy break to try turf routing twice, neither time proving to be very successful. The figure she ran in her debut in 2018 is almost good enough to win this race, and I think the class drop combined with a return to her preferred surface should make her incredibly tough here today. Note that the field she faced in that debut ended up turning out to be full of runners, as 6 of the 8 horses went on to win at least 3 times that year, including stakes winner Sneaking Out and multiple allowance winners Square Peggy and Opus Won. Eurton is 29% when dropping from maiden special to maiden claiming the last 3 years, and Lady Ember should take another step forward in her third start off the break. The pick. #1 Love Not War is the other entry in this race who is dropping from maiden special weight company to maiden claimers. While she has done her best work over turf, she did debut on dirt and may handle the surface switch okay. She clearly didn’t care for the lone try routing, and D’Amato is 21% when dropping a horse into maiden claimers for the first time. She’s a threat if she takes to the surface. #5 Casillalater goes out for relatively unknown connections, but she ran a sneaky good race in her debut. She clipped heels and steadied badly early in the race but re-rallied and ended up getting a comfortable second clear by over 2 lengths from the show horse. That was a much weaker field than she will face today, but it does inspire some confidence to see trainer Gonzalez elect to move her up in class after that effort. Jockey Lopez is a 10-pound bug, but note that he is 2 for 5 when riding for Gonzalez the last 60 days.
Race 4: [F][S]OC 50000n1x 1 Mile (T)
Picks: 7, 1 / 5 / 4,6
The fourth race of the day presents us with multiple horses exiting the same race at Santa Anita on January 18, so I would strongly recommend watching a replay of that race. Assuming there are no scratches, #6 Teachers Big Dream and #8 Sassyserb appear destined to duel on the front, as neither has proven the ability to rate and both possess serious early speed. I’ll be looking for an off-the-pace runner here, and #7 California Kook fits the bill. This filly did not get the best trip last out when she was stuck in the parking lot with the 11 post and broke a little slowly. Breaking slow from the far outside going 1 mile at Santa Anita is incredibly detrimental, as you are forced to either take way back and make a huge late run or get stuck 5 wide around the first turn. California Kook elected to do a little bit of both, falling far behind the pace but also being wide around both turns. I thought that of all the horses in that race other than the winner, she ran the strongest race and might have more to give with a better trip. Peter Miller is always lethal on grass in California, and this one could be sitting on a big race. #1 Warrior’s Moon also had a terrible draw last out, but Cedillo gave her a fantastic ride to clear some horses to her inside and find a great stalking position on the rail behind 3 dueling leaders. She couldn’t have asked for a better trip, and while she did hold on for place, it wasn’t by much. Cedillo ends up elsewhere this race, but Prat is obviously no slouch. A contender for sure but others may offer more upside. Speaking of Prat, he didn’t do any favors for #5 Almost a Factor in that last race. She had a perfect stalking trip on the rail when Prat tried to make a move between horses and got sawed off, being forced to check and take up and losing momentum at the most critical junction of the race. She did run on well given the traffic trouble, and Franco gets back on board, who was riding for her lone win so far and gets a lot of mounts of Gaines. A price player. #4 She’s Devoted took all the money in her debut and managed to squeak out a win by a nostril, earning a respectable speed figure. She figures logical here, especially with Rosario retaining the mount, but it’s never easy facing winners for the first time, nevertheless doing so in a first attempt around two turns. Inclined to let this one beat me at a short price. #6 Teachers Big Dream seems too slow on paper and doesn’t figure to get the right pace setup, but Rispoli is an unconscious 24% on turf this meet and is quickly approaching must-use territory. #8 Sassyserb set very honest fractions last out and still ran them off their feet, but she’ll likely have more company up front this time and has to deal with an outside draw for a low percentage barn. Tough race.
Race 5: [F][S]OC 20000n1x 6 Furlongs
Picks: 7 / 2,4,5
Race 6 sets up an interesting race as there isn’t a clear-cut frontrunner, something that is quite unusual for a group of Santa Anita dirt sprinters going 6 furlongs. I think this race will favor horses who are forwardly placed, so I’m going with #7 Miss Megan as the top selection. While I do think #5 Lippy and possibly even #4 Time for Ebby have the ability to make the lead if the jockeys are given explicit orders to send, I think Miss Megan is the naturally quickest horse out of the gate and very well might be the one to catch. She has run well both times over dirt, including an absolutely sizzling race where she stopped the clock in 103.4 going 5.5 furlongs at Del Mar when destroying a field when breaking her maiden. She hasn’t run poorly over the synthetic surface, but she has never come close to replicating that effort either. She now switches to a high percentage barn in D’Amato and gets the services of dominant west coast rider Flavien Prat. She might be one who does need the lead to give her best, but I think she gets the right setup today and gets the job done. If the top choice is unable to make the lead, the race should fall into the lap of #5 Lippy. Lippy is the only horse who may have enough speed to outsprint Miss Megan, and if she does clear that foe and get loose up front it could be over for the rest of this field. The turf experiments have not gone according to plan, so she’s returning to dirt where she owns a record a 5-2-1-1, including a win over the local track. She is making her third start off the layoff and her second start as a 4-year-old, so she is eligible to improve. However, tough to ignore that all of her strong races came way back in 2018, and she hasn’t lived up to expectations as she now drops in for a tag for the first time in her career. #2 Time for Suzzie could get the best trip if Miss Megan and Lippy hook up on the lead, as she owns enough tactical speed to get first run on the tiring leaders. She loves this 6-furlong distance, and despite the fact that she was beaten by today’s foe #4 Time for Ebby, I think there is significantly more upside with Time for Suzzie as she makes her third start off the layoff and is a still-developing 4-year-old who should be continuing to improve. Time for Ebby ran a much-improved race last time, and I’m concerned the 7-year-old mare might regress rather than improve off that effort. Both are usable and tough to separate.
Race 6: Clm 35000n3L 11/8 Mile (T)
Picks: 6, 1 / 3,8,5
Okay, the pick for Race 6 might just get me laughed off the internet, but I’m going with a horse who is an astonishing 50-1 on the morning line in longshot of the day #6 Spectator’s Dream. First, let’s address the obvious negatives: the horse has never won on turf, he’s never ran fast enough to win a race like today, and he just broke his maiden last out against much weaker and finds some legit horses entered against him today. However, the main point that cannot be overstated is that he is textbook lone speed in this field. Perhaps he is too cheap to win, but there is a very real chance that Valdivia, a pretty decent jockey, gets this one to the lead and slows it down against a field devoid of much other pace. There aren’t exactly any rock stars in this field considering it’s a N3L race, and it feels like the kind of setup where most jockeys will let the cheap speed go and assume they can run him down late. His pedigree suggests the distance should be in his wheelhouse, and despite being winless in 3 turf starts he set a fast pace and ran a respectable speed figure in 2 of them. Be wary of the price, as I’d need at least 15-1 or 20-1 to go for him, but these are the kind of shots you must take when you think you have a bomb with a chance. If the long shot fails to pan out, #1 Hootie figures most logical. This gelding has some early speed to keep the leaders honest, and Rispoli is a wizard on the lawn, orchestrating a beautiful ride 2 back to get the win. Ignore his last race, as it was over the wrong surface and he was stuck wide chasing a slow pace in a 4 horse field. A return to turf should be exactly what the doctor ordered. #3 Roaring Fork is the only other horse in the field who could reasonably contend for the lead, as he has shown speed before and now adds blinkers. It’s always fair to assume Miller will move a horse up after a claim (28% first off the claim), but this one has never ran fast enough on turf to win this race, and most of the normal Miller jockeys end up elsewhere today. #8 Erotic hasn’t found the winner’s circle in a while, but he now drops to the lowest level of his career and gets red hot Rosario to keep the mount. Sprinting was never going to be his best game, although the jump from 5.5 furlongs to 9 furlongs is certainly a curious move for Carava. Might be good enough on his best day. #5 Mr. Magico doesn’t win often, but his last 2 races were very strong. Not sure how fit he will be on the long layoff, but a repeat of his last 2 makes him a player in here.
Race 7: [F]OC 62500n2X 11/16 Mile
Picks: 3 // 1,2,4,5
After going with a 50-1 on top for Race 6, I don’t feel too guilty about taking the chalk in race 7 with #3 First Star. This short 5-horse field projects to be a match race between the top 2, although others do still have a chance on speed figures. I have never been a huge Der Lu fan, so I’m going to give the edge to First Star. She ran against the some of the best fillies in the country last out in the La Brea, finishing an even fourth while running into a nuclear pace. Versatile sort gives her rider options, and she’s handled a mile before so no reason to think the stretch out will give her problems today. Note Drayden jumps off Der Lu to ride First Star. Could potentially fall victim to a slow pace if a horse gets loose and slows things down up front, but one must think Drayden will keep her more involved early, and she won’t have to run 21/44 to keep up this time. #2 Der Lu was as game as they come last out in defeat, getting passed and nearly re-rallying for the win against a well-regarded Queen Bea to You. While you have to admire her tenacity, the fact remains that she did get the lead to herself early and set mild fractions before taking pace pressure, and this has been a maddeningly inconsistent filly for most of her career. I’m wondering if that stretch battle may have knocked the starch out of her a bit. Baffert notoriously works his horses fast in the mornings, and she has posted 2 fairly slow workouts since coming out of that race. Compare those works to the ones who was rattling off before the La Canada Stakes, and the difference is quite noticeable. Wouldn’t surprise me if she won, but I’m inclined to play against her at short odds. Any of the remaining 3 horses could feasibly win, as they aren’t really that much slower based on speed figures. #1 Starr of Quality went out of form a bit late last year, but she returns to a track where she’s 6/14 lifetime and could be sharper off the break. #4 Kaydetre ran a better than it looked fourth last out when trying to close from last into a race that was dominated by frontrunners on a slow pace. Her best race could win this, so don’t overlook. This is the type of race to take a stand and single or take an ALL and hope for a price.
Race 8: [F][S]Mdn 55k 1 Mile (T)
Picks: 9, 7 / 6 / 8
#9 Hot Magistrate is the top pick, and likely an overlay at the current odds of 6/1. Filly by Unusual Heat pressed a quick pace last out, proved to be best of the speeds, and was overtaken in the final 50 yards in a race that was dominated by closers. There doesn’t appear to be anyone in here capable of going with her early, and she gets a rider upgrade to Drayden with a more favorable pace scenario than she’s had in the past. I think if she can get comfortable on the lead that she will be incredibly difficult to catch late. #7 Y Not Sizzle is a tough luck horse, still a maiden despite 7 in-the-money finishes. She just missed last out when flying late, but she was racing with the flow of the race and running into a hot pace, both scenarios that are unlikely to reoccur today. However, she does have enough tactical speed to sit closer if Rispoli chooses to get her more involved early. #6 Dance Costume is a bit of a wildcard, as she ran decent in debut but unclear if she was beating much else that day and never threatened the winner Lavender. Union Rags offspring typically do well going long, but generally fare poorly on grass. Dam was a sprinter, and her offspring have done best around 1 turn. Mixed signals. #8 Oh Pretty Woman appears to be a weak favorite here, as she is clearly a horse with issues judging from the breaks in her running lines, and while she might improve second off the layoff, she’s still never run a route race fast enough to win today. I feel the public will correct this line, but she’s a fade at 3/1.