W%
ROI
Race 1
pass
Race 2
3-5-1
#3 Naughty Sophie: This one seems to be the right favorite and im not going against She has won in the claiming ranks before and she gets what is a good trainer-jockey combo with Tyler Baze and trainer Peter Miller they hit at 30% with a 40 mount sample size also have a $2.40 ROI. If you use Formulator I have found that Peter Miller does well when switching surfaces and dropping horses in class. She also gets back on her preferred surface.
#5 Chatty: I was looking for a good alternative and maybe not so much for a win but one that should hit the board, This will be her first time in for a tag and also she ran a monster 47.1 workout on the 20th of December. Trainer Mike McCarthy is pretty bad lately when putting the blinkers on but she is also getting back to dirt where her lone win happened.
Race 3
7-6-4
#7 I Am The Danger: Just Missed two back at this level and then ran a huge number against 40K OC 91 Bey was it the wet track or is he just improving since his maiden breaker 3 back. The main negative is in 8 starts he seems to love running second which he has done 4 times in 8 starts seems like a possible seconditis horse to me.
#6 Shane Zain: Won his only race off a layoff and he comes in off another today. They thought highly enough to try this one in a few graded stakes. Second, off the claim for Baltas, he has a huge Trainer stat when he puts blinks on 20% with a 40 start sample size.
Race 4
PASS
Race 5
6-9-11
#6 Mo Mississippi: I always like to take experience in these types of races and this colt ran very well on debut albeit a wet track his nice workout after the race tells me this horse can improve in start #2. Trainer Peter Eurton has Positive ROI with Second-time starters sprinting on dirt in MSW races.
#9 Scalper: Unless you live under a rock you haven’t heard how good Baffert is doing with 2-year-olds. He is 56% with Drayden Van Dyke who switches off from the other Baffert. Dam won 200K plus and he has a 100K sibling as well. The reason for my stand against lots of gate works 6 in a row.
#11 BIg Scott Daddy: The dam for this son of Scat daddy won 300K and was also a G2 winner so there are big expectations for this colt. Another positive for me is that Mike Smith decides to take the call. The wide post is a bit worrying but if he runs ok splits the field hits the board he might be a good bet back with a better post.
Race 6
5-7-9
#5 Dream Tree: This perfect filly for Bob Baffert is going for 6 in a row to stay undefeated. She won a G1 as a two-year-old and this year is 2-2 in G2 races. Only a couple of horses have cracked mid 90 Beyers and she is the only one to break 100 so far. Her Workouts have also been superb in the morning
Race 7
5-6-4
#5 River Boyne: Horses who are more than 2-2 at a certain track should always get your attention this one is 5-5!! just at Santa Anita and with only 6 wins lifetime this is an easy horse for course angle. Off the layoff, he won the G2 Twilight Derby and then just missed in the Hollywood Derby losing to a very good Chad Brown East coast turfer we all know east beats the best west horses on the grass but when one like this can stay that close he gets an extra bump of confidence from me
Race 8
2-3-8-7
Battle of Midway: this was a tough little battle based on the last race to try and my top two. Battle of Midway won a breeders cup race last year and has since come back into roaring form winning a listed and G3 stake. I think the way trainer Jerry hollendorfer slowly and methodically brought him into each race I think he is ready for the step up again into G2 company. he also loves Santa Anita and is 2-2 at this distance.
Race 9
3-13-12
#3 Copper Bullet: This Steve Asmussen colt has never been out of the exacta in 5 starts. He won a G2 and then due to a layoff I feel was for maturity purposes pops a huge mid 90 Beyer I think with some big name horses stuck very wide this son of More than Ready has a good shot at 6-1 on the morning line
Race 10
PASS