Saturday October 19th
Trainers stat of the week:
Hess and Bonde remain winless, combined 0-26. Doug O’Neill has picked up 6 wins in the past week to pull well ahead in the trainers standings. Past week = 20: 6-3-1
Jockey Stat of the week:
Both DVD and Mike Smith are out of town for Keeneland mounts today, giving less competition to the clear top 2 riders Prat and Cedillo. Look for them to have big days. Stat of the week is around Joe Talamo, who I like, but has been ice cold notorious for wide trips and appears to be losing mounts. Since his last win on 10/5 Joe has been 0-15 (15: 0-1-1) that’s a shocking 2 for 15 ITM rate. Not good, downgrade for now until we see some signs of life.
Worth Mentioning:
Outside posts continue to not fair well this meet. Below are win stats for all posts outside the 7 hole (8+)
Turf Sprints: 1-27
Turf Routes: 4-51 (10,11,12=0-18)
Dirt Sprints: 1-14
Dirt Routes: 0-9
Early Pick 5 Sequence:
Field size: 7x4x6x8x6 (8,064 combinations) SMALL
2 Turf Routes (same condition), 2 Dirt Routes, 1 Dirt Sprint
2 CLM, 3MSW CA BRED restricted.
Early Pick 5
2,4,6 / ALL/4,5,6/1,5,7,8/3,5 ($144)
6/ 1,3/ 4,5,6/ 1,5,7/ 3,5 ($2 base: $72)
Race 1: 1M TURF MSW 2YO F, CA BREDS
Projection: 6-2-4
Phil D’Amato’s nickname is “The Magician” and he is going to need to work some magic today in this 1st race as I see his #3 Jodie Faster as a “play against” and the move to turf an interesting one. Empire Maker is simply not a horse that produces Turf Success, his progeny are actually 0-30 first time turf and less than 2% win rate overall. D’Amato has not been great with 1st time turf of late either, 7% this year. Works have been good, and may attract some play, but they were on the main track and betting against this one thriving on the grass. Top pick is #6 Warrior’s Moon. You need to go back and watch the replay of her last race, her turf debut in DMR. DVD made a huge middle move with this horse who quickly went from last to first around the far turn and looked like a sure thing before taking a misstep and/or had trouble with the lead change. Has had 6 works since, a solid tab, and now gets Prat up. A must use but wouldn’t go solo here. Exiting the same race is #2 Sassyserb who also sports a solid 6 worktab since last and gets Cedillo back. Replay shows this horse 3 wide throughout, not the map for success on this turf course, yet still blew by Warriors Moon in deep stretch after being passed by her on the turn. Shows some grit, and with some more ground saved, could have won that race. This horse has gained some nice experience with her trips in her first three, could breakout today. Bob Hess has a chance to get his first win of this meet with #4 Lakaya. Although Lakerville is not known to produce Turf success, her dam had won two turf routes with a “5” top fig on the sheets. The other big angle here is the return to the Statebred restriction from open company, this is a big drop in class IMO and this is clearly a softer group than her last. Blinkers on is ahigh % move for Hess and gets a jock upgrade on the grass from Roman to Bejarano. Could be a price and one worth betting.
Race 2: 1M DIRT CLM 12.5K N2X F&M 3+ Bad Race
Projection: 1-3-5
So, Donnie Meche a 25 year jockey vet who primarily rides at Canterbury and is a 3% winner is aboard the 4-5 ML favorite. Yikes. This is a 4 horse field, which makes it a jockey race so despite the fact the numbers on the ML fav #5 Tequila Sunrise standout, I can’t take a stand. Top pick is #1 Conformation for Reddam/Cecil/Diaz and feel we need to use the best jock in this race (Fuentes) with #3 Shanghai Barbie. Note, back to back “B” works over the training track for this one who should be fit and ready. Two ways to go here, take a stand against the fav with these two, or the ALL button. Bad race.
Race 3: 1 1/6M DIRT CLM 25k 3YO+ N2X
Projection: 4-5-6 3 Horse Race
Top pick in here is the #4 Boogalute who takes a massive drop in class here from OC40k company. He was off for 20 months before returning for Puype in August so this being the 3rd race in the form cycle should be primed for best. Oct 14th work was graded a B+ for @clockerandy, more proof this one will be ready to fire against weaker competition. The only other two of interest in here would be #5 Broke Away Grey who will be coming late, and if he gets any pace to run at can be dangerous here. Was the fav in this condition last month at LRC and did not get any upfront pace to close into. #6 Fast as Cass retains Fuentes and gets outside position in a race where he should be sitting right off Boogalute or could decide to apply pressure with the outside position. If Boogalute does not fire, this would be the likely horse to be on an easy lead.
Race 4: 1M TURF MSW 2YO F, CA BREDS
Projection: 1-7-5—-8 Only a few with positive attributes
Have this narrowed down to three, as many of these have very little evidence of success on dirt from sire, dam, or sibs and/or low success patterns from trainer for this condition. #1 California Kook has solid turf pedigree, win early pedigree, and a trainer that can have them ready to win first out. Also, Velez/Miller have been a dangerous and profitable combination, too many positive angles amongst a field where you have to search for them. #7 Meausureofdevotion has the best works of this bunch and has flashed some solid talent in the AM earning a “B” grade from @clockerandy. Kruljac 0-7 with 2YO debuts, but a small sample, where Violence babies are striking at 22% for 2 YO’s.
*30-1 ML #5 Goveness Sheila had a huge bullet work last week with Blinkers OFF. Was moved from the Sherlock barn to Koch since last race and gets a big move up in class. This work and equipment change could be sneaky, as it was not published in the workout report. In a race full of questions, why not include in hopes these positives equate to an upset victory at a price.
Race 5: 6.5 DIRT MSW50k 2YO CA Bred
Projection: 3-5 D’Amato Pair standout
We may need the 30-1 in race 4, as race 5 appears to be very likely to chalk out. D’Amato has “the nuts” here, with both of these horses coming off “B” works, both have the top figs by far on sheets, and both have plenty of excuses in their losses in their running lines. If you like to play pedigree, Nil Phet is a full to Soi Phet but this horse has showed nothing in both the morning works and afternoon tries. String of “C” works makes this a “no play” for me, but pedigree worth a mention.
Late Pick 5 Plays:
1,5,7,8/ 3,5/ 1,2,3,5/ 2,3,4/1,3,6 ($144)
ALL/ 3,5/ 2,3,5/ 4/ 1,3,6 ($72)
1,5,7,8/2,3,5/1,2,3,5/2,3,4/1 ($90)
Late Pick 5 Summary:
With only a 8 race card, legs 4 and 5 become more important as they are included in each set. With scratches, we do not get much better on field size for the back half of the card, so you could play shallow strong opinions and punch multiple times, or if alive in the EP5 going into R4, can start to protect and differentiate the tickets with some strong opinions late. Your style, your call.
Race 6: Loaded with speed and talent. Top selection is #3 King Abner off the break, has always been gritty and should like this cutback. Not sure he can rate, and has been kicking away from workmates instead of going after targets so will likely play “catch me if you can”. I will say, the Glatt claim is interesting in here #5 Castle as I have seen this movie before of Glatt claiming one and showing immediate improvement, love the bullet work last week in prep for this one. Include at a price.
Race 7: Can cut his field in half, but I will play against he Michael McCarthy horse here as he has been ice cold and also know for his patience with 2YO’s and low first time starter strike rate. Top pick is from a barn I rarely play, but it looks like Harrington may have a runner here. #4 Papster has some good pedigree combined with Harrington’s pretty solid numbers with first time 2YO’s. Very strong works including a couple of bullets, but I really liked the 6F 1:11 work last week from the gate. Should be ready, should be fast and prominent. #3Zero down and #2 Totally Tiger were fav’s last out and have solid work tabs. I like Square Eddie’s in these 2YO sprints as well, should be competitive.
Race 8: Loved the #1 Nu Pi Lambda on debut and will play back here today. Should have prominent speed and comes in off a short breather with a steady work tab for Gaines who is strong with 2nd time out 2YO’s. Price play with #6 Bayonce who took money in debut (odd for an Eurton horse) and then again for 2nd start (1st Turf). Multiple bullets coming into this race and not on the work out report. Would imagine this one gets bet down again here, but horizontally, a must use. Would also use the #3 for D’Amato and Prat who debuts off some morning buzz.