Welcome to the second Sunday of the Great Race Place here at Santa Anita. We tried beating a few favorites last week on a day where short priced favorites won 5 of 8 races, so we look to rebound this weekend. After watching opening weekend, it appears that early speed is as dangerous as ever on the new Santa Anita dirt course. The turf has played more fairly, with several runners coming from off the pace, particularly in the turf sprints. With less than a month until Breeders Cup it is more important than ever to keep in tune with the track biases. Similar to Del Mar, I will be tracking the win %, ITM %, and $2 win bet ROI for the top selection only.
2019 Fall Santa Anita Statistics
Last Week: 25% (2/8 win, 4/8 ITM), $1.25 ROI per $2 win bet ($16 wagered, $10 returned)
Santa Anita Fall 2019: 25% (2/8 win, 4/8 ITM), $1.25 ROI per $2 win bet ($16 wagered, $10 returned)
Race 1: MC 50000 1 Mile
Picks: 4-2-5-1
We begin the card with a short field of maiden claimers going a mile on the main track. #4 Mutineer is the most experienced of this bunch, having raced 9 times and failing to find the winners’ circle so far. However, 7 of those 9 efforts were against maiden special weight company, and he was claimed by sharp claiming trainer O’Neill when dropped in for a 50k tag 3 starts back. Returns to maiden claiming company here where he was second in two previous efforts. I’m not sure that sprinting is his best game, but I do think he will have sneaky early speed exiting all of those sprint races and stretching out here Garcia and O’Neill are 35% together the last 60 days, and I expect him to be just off the pace and overtake the pacesetters who have faded while going shorter. #2 Single Me Out just missed last out when getting a wide trip at this distance. Enters this race third off the layoff after pairing top efforts in his previous 2 races, this one looks primed for a step forward. #5 Moana Luna faltered badly after setting an honest pace in his last race at Del Mar. The track has been strongly speed favoring in dirt sprints so cannot discount this one entirely as the likely pacesetter especially with “all go” Maldonado on board. That said, others do entice more.
Race 2: [F] Mdn 50k 5 Furlongs (Turf)
Picks: 8-10-4-1
Race 2 brings us a field of 2-year-old maidens sprinting on the turf. Many here are trying turf for the first time, including my top pick #8 Golden Melodie. This filly is by precocious sire Goldencents, who gets 12% winners first time on turf. She flashed early speed in both of her starts to date before tiring, and now gets a switch to grass. Lewis gets 27% winners with first time on turf with a crazy $7.38 ROI, and this filly has 2 siblings who are already turf winners. Velez retains the mount, and he is most dangerous when sending hard early (23% jockey on E horses). Don’t overlook at a nice price. #10 Beautiful Thunder is the next selection, as she is one of the few entrants who has turf experience. Brian Koriner is 30% with horses making their second career start, and this one showed good speed for a half mile before tiring in her debut. I expect her to be fitter here today. #4 Officious debuts for D’Amato. She is bred up and down to handle turf sprints, being by City Zip (13% fist turf) and a Stormy Atlantic damsire (12% first turf). The works don’t jump off the page, but this one has the pedigree to thrive in this kind of a race. #1 Colombian Gold is the last selection. She has shown good speed in her first two races, both routes, before tiring at the half mile marker. She gets a much-needed cutback to 5 furlongs here for turf ace Andrew Lerner. Needs to work out a trip from the rail, but should have a stamina edge on most of this field.
Race 3: MC 20000 6 Furlongs
Picks: 1-6-3-4
#1 Scarlet is the pick here. 3-year-old filly woke up when going 2 turns for the first time two races back, and she was far from embarrassed when third last out in her first try against winners. Note she was almost 4 lengths clear of the 4th place finisher in that race. She projects to be the controlling speed here with a favorable rail draw and looms the one to beat. #6 Tapitha Bonita is an honest hard-knocking horse who has done her best work over this local course. The form is a little dirty, but toss out the turf tries and assume she may not have cared for the Del Mar dirt and she nearly fits in here. The distance shouldn’t pose a problem, and I anticipate she will be more forwardly placed than normal as she stretches out back to a mile. #3 Carressa freaked in her last race fresh off a 3 month layoff and may take some money today. Any improvement on that effort makes her dangerous here, but note that the heavy favorite in her maiden score tossed the jockey at the start and Pink Scatillac, the second place finisher, ran out of the money in her next start at Churchill. Facing winners for the first time is never an easy task but Shirreffs is firing at 30% with last out maiden winners. Interesting at a price. I’m heavily against #6 Der Lu in this spot. This horse has clearly had issues staying on the race track, and she has really gone the wrong direction for Baffert after showing so much promise in her maiden score. The turf efforts in her last seems a desperate move, and I’ll let her beat me at a likely short price.
Race 4: ZumaBeachL100K 1 Mile (Turf)
Picks: 1-2-5-4
Race 4 brings an interesting group of 2 year-olds for a nongraded stakes turf route. The most interesting horse to me is the #1 Hariboux. This gelding is more seasoned than most of this field, having run 5 times and never being out of the money (5-3-1-1). The quality of juvenile turf racing overseas is typically stronger than stateside, especially on the west coast, so I think Mullins has a real contender on his hands. Pedigree suggests the mile won’t be an issue, but could be disadvantaged by a possibly slow pace. Drayden ends up here when he had choices. #2 Encoder is undefeated through 2 starts, including a win going 2 turns on the grass at Del Mar last out. Hronis-Sadler-Prat connections are always dangerous, and this one looks legit. Can’t knock this one at all other than the price. #5 Club Aspen is the intriguing long shot of the race. While he has never tried turf, he does have a strong turf pedigree on the top with Candy Ride and we have already covered how strong Craig Lewis is when going dirt to turf. Without a clear pacesetter in this race, I imagine Velez will have this one on up the lead as he stretches out to a route for the first time, and speed is ever dangerous on the SA turf.
Race 5: MC 20000 6 Furlongs
Picks: 6-2-5-7
Race 5 is a rough bunch of maidens who are seeking their first victory. #6 Darpa is the main threat, as this filly just missed last time at this level. It doesn’t instill confidence when they are dropped significantly and don’t win, but I’m willing to give her one more chance to prove herself against this subpar group. She has already run 2 races that are 20 points faster than the best races of her opponents, and a repeat of either of those likely gets the job done today. #2 Lily Con has at least proven that she has early speed, setting respectable fractions in her last two before tiring badly. Perhaps the cutback to one turn will help get her on the right track. She is also the only horse in today who hasn’t been dropping to the MCL 20 level yet, and she appears to have been working smartly in the AM. There truly aren’t any other horses I’d consider from this group, but the #5 Point Received has had 5 months off and has shown improved clockings in the morning workouts. Gomez already has a winner at the SA meet this fall, and she finds a weak field to potentially take advantage of if she’s improved over the summer.
Race 6: SpkeasyB100K 5 Furlongs (Turf)
Picks: 3-8-11-2
In a race that is absolutely loaded with early pace, I’m looking towards horses who have proven they have the ability to rate and pass others. My top selection is the #3 Commander. He won excellent allowance races against large fields in France that would dwarf the competition he faces here today. The mile may have been a bit further than she prefers last time, and D’Amato has been winning at an absurd rate at Santa Anita so far this meet (6/13 46%). Cedillo is a criminally underrated jockey who is always firing at a stellar 26%. I think he improves in his second local start cutting back to a sprint and gets the job done here. #8 Square Deal is a close second choice. This horse has crossed the wire first in his last 2 efforts despite being DQ’d once, both in state bred nongraded stakes company. This horse is clearly a major player on dirt, so for Callaghan to make the switch to turf indicates to me that he really thinks Square Deal can be a huge threat on the new surface. Plenty of turf in the pedigree to support that notion, plus top turf rider Prat gets on board, hitting for 44% when teaming up with Callaghan. I imagine Prat keeps him close enough to the pace to overtake the tiring leaders at the top of the stretch. #11 El Tigre Terrible is another trying turf for the first time. Smiling Tiger offspring do very well on grass, and this horse has a versatility in run style that can make him dangerous. The outside draw will be tough, but I think he has enough speed to clear and move over stalking a hot pace. #2 Alfie Solomons is an interesting play if the pace does not fall apart, as he gets a cutback here from the undulating 6 furlongs of Kentucky Downs to a flat 5 furlongs at Santa Anita. He should have the slight stamina edge over the other 5 furlong sprinters, and Wes Ward doesn’t often ship west.
Race 7: OC 40000n1x 6½ Furlongs
Picks: 3-5-6-7
Closers need not apply for the Santa Anita dirt sprints so far this year. These races have been dominated by front runners or those within 2 lengths of the pace, which leads me to the favorite #3 Anuket. Baffert trainee looked outstanding when blasting maidens in her debut as the odds on favorite, then stumbled and tossed the jockey in her next start. Her debut speed figure wins this race, and that was as a 2-year-old back in December. Safe to say she has improved since then, and if she’s fit on the break she’s the likeliest winner. If you want to play against her at a short price, it’s worth noting that Drayden ends up on another in here. Perhaps Baffert has removed him after his spill with Eight Rings? Interesting to watch as Diaz gets the mount, who is 4/8 when riding for Baffert this meet. #5 Miss Ava’s Union has improved in each of her last 3 starts, finally breaking her maiden last out at Del Mar. She was soundly beaten by the favorite in her debut, but she is a better horse now, and it remains to be seen how Anuket has matured over the year. She is the likeliest winner if the favorite misfires. #6 Rather Nosy owns a number of speed figures that make her competitive here, but she has a tendency to always find one horse just a little better than her, evidenced by the 2 wins and 7 place/shows. She has a versatile run style and gets Prat up, a significant upgrade over Roman, so don’t discount the most experienced member of this bunch too lightly, as she’s only been out of the money once in her career (on turf).
Race 8: SurferGrlL100K 1 Mile (Turf)
Picks: 4-5-8-7
We wrap up the day’s action with yet another 2-year-old race, this time going 1 mile on the turf. #4 Yesterdayoncemore is the top selection. This Irish invader actually broke her maiden in a juvenile stakes race at Del Mar on the turf going 1 mile. She is proven at the distance and at the class level, and she had to overcome trouble in her victory when steadying twice before mowing them down late. Highly promising filly should be tough to beat here. #5 Mind Out didn’t have the cleanest break in her debut but went on to win anyway. She now stretches out to a mile, which should certainly be within her wheelhouse with Tapit and Lemon Drop Kid in the pedigree. Callaghan is excellent with 2-year-old fillies, and she should find herself nearer the pace with a clean break on the stretch out. #8 Savvy Gal ran a very professional stalk and pounce race in her debut, and has already proven the distance won’t be a problem. There is other sprint speed in here, but if those others don’t care for the turf she could find herself on or near a moderate pace and tough to run down late.