What a card today for SA. 10 races, full fields, only one claiming race, and some really nice horses that show up throughout the card. First two days back have been a handle success for SA, with more than $25M wagered. Today’s card should add to this nice lift when comparing to pre- shutdown cards. As usual my focus is on the Early Pick 5 sequence, however includes some spotlight analysis on the back half of this card too, as some races were too good not to talk about. The early Pick 5 continues to show its great value as a bet, where over the last two days has paid 44k (vs. 34k parlay value) and $1.7k (vs. 1.5k parlay value). Todays sequence is a challenge with over 50k possible combinations and finishes with three consecutive Ca Bred races. Ripe for another nice payout. Best of luck!
Race 1: 5.5F TURF OC $40k N1X 3YO+ F&M CA Breds PACE: Fast/ Contentious
Projection: 10-8-2-5 Horizontal: A:10 B: 2,8 C: 3,4,5,9 X: 1,6,7,11
**Trend Stat** 1 hole been a tough spot for this distance at SA on turf, going 3-60 this meet.
Still early enough in the year where the 3 year old and older condition can provide some good value for older, matured, and experienced horses over the 3’s. We see three 3YO’s in here, where it will be a the first time the 5 and 6 horses tackle older. The #8 Lofty (ML Favorite) however not only has taken on older, but won doing so last out here on March 22 as an odds on favorite. The three consecutive wins, and the fact her Beyers tower over this field is likely to lead to another odds on situation here today. But lets look a little closer. Using Thorograph his figures are actually on PAR with this bunch, with her last two efforts coming in at a 9 figure, which matches the last out efforts of the 1,2,and 9. Both #3 Thriving and #10 Querelle have bettered that figure (Querelle with a 6 last out). Looking at the pace scenario, this one has a chance to be contentious with 4 horses between 90-100 TFUS Early Speed figure, and the #4 with a 104. This looks to set up perfectly for my top pick #10 Querelle who in both of her last two efforts was up against a speed favoring race flow, but in each closed strong winning two back, and missing by a neck last out. Peter Miller continues to thrive in turf sprints and attracts Prat on board. With best figure (thoro), favorable anticipated race shape, an upgrade from last efforts against race flow, and now a freshening for this 4YO, this will be a key horse for me, and what will likely be 3-4x value over favorite.
Race 2: 4.5F DIRT MSW $50k 2YO Fillies PACE: unkown
Projection: 5-6-3-1 Horizontal: A: 5 B:3,6 C: 1 X: 2,4
This looks like another good spot to try and beat the favorite. The ML Fav #3 Love Wins has received plenty of morning buzz, and most recent work was graded a B+ by Andy Harrington for the sharp 3F drill from the gate. This is where Mendez comes out each year, and has a reputation as a 2YO specialist, but drilling down into Formulator is sitting at 15% for 2YO first time starters. The sire for this one too is not strong on his first time starters, hitting at a mere 5%. Instead, I find myself on #5 Self Isolation. Opposite of the favorite, tis sire (Square Eddie) produces horses ready to run early. 20% win rate for 2YO first timers. Reddam and O’Neill connection also strong on 2YO first timers at 19%. Slight concern on the missed workout between 4/1 and 4/21, but since has had 3 consecutive good looking works capped by his 5/11 worked where I really like the work description from @clockerandy “Broke very well between Dennis Celery and Ingest leading the trio in 24.3 was challenged on the turn by Ingest kicking away again under wraps in 48.4 galloping with enthusiasm in 101.3. Professionalism.—Grade: B” Speeaking of nice works, the speed shown from the gate on the #6 Miz Lola La Dare was impressive in last work, and Patricia Harrington not one to debut 2YO’s often, but this 3rd generation homebred for the Harrington’s looks ready. She is 2 for 10 on the 2YO first time starter angle, with this the first debut since 2018. Keep in mind, these races have nice CA Bred bonuses, a nice bonus and motivation to have them ready to win for the 5 and 6 here.
Race 3: 6F DIRT AOC $20k 3YO+ CA Breds Pace: Moderate, likely contentious
Projection: 6-7-1-4 Horizontal: A: 6 B: 7 C: 1,4 X: 2,3,5
Now we begin the string of nice CA Bred races. Handicapping tip for these, scroll through and look for horses who have raced against open company, even if its at the same purse/OC condition it coul be considered a pretty big drop in class. #6 Quick Finish has run in 5 statebred restricted races in his careers, going 5:2-2-0, but in 6 races versus open company is 6:0-1-1. Clearly this is a good condition fit, but also got to like that the connections feel this one is talented enough to run against open company often. Also note that this one has not been on fast dirt in the afternoon since October of 2018, and has been working very well over this track of late with his recent work with Breeders Cup Stakes runner Hit the Road as company. #1 Afternoon Heat will be tough company, where last race his Thorograph figure jumped 4 points to a new top. Feel like a potential bounce candidate here, but if runs back to that figure, Quick Finish would need to show improvement. The works for Afternoon Heat though have not been strong, with notes of issues changing leads. Note the 35 second 3F work of #7 Mr. Paytience, clearly this new gelding who comes back after a 14 month layoff is feeling good. Note also the tough company he has been up against, getting back to statebred restriction will be good for this one. My concern is in O’Neill’s numbers on bringing horses back off a year+ layoff, where he is 1 for 17 lifetime with only 3 of those hitting the board (oddly enough he has 2 horses in here with this layoff angle as #4 last raced Feb 19’). I will be playing against #5 I Belong to Becky. This one freaked in January under the Peter Miller / Rockingham Ranch connections before being claimed next out in a dull effort. No faith this horse returns to the figure put up in January with the likely regression coming out of the Miller barn. Not surprised to see a tag on him today.
Race 4: 5.5F DIRT MSW $50k 3YO+ CA BREDS PACE: Fast and contentious.
Projection: 10-5-4-1 Horizontal: A: 4,5,10 B: 7 C: 1,6,9 X: 2,3,8,11
Before going into the handicapping, seeing Lovely Finish on any card always brings me back to the amazing story of this horse and his trainer during the SLR Fires. If you have not read it here is a link https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2018/12/18/horse-owner-heal-california-lilac-fire, and there are a few good videos on Youtube about this story too. Unreal, and hard not to root for this horse and Herrick.
Tough race, where as you would expect in a 5.5F dash, loaded with speed but none that have shown they can carry it to victory. Feels like this one will be contentious early. Top pick is #10 Liberalism who returns for 3YO debut after two 2nd place finishes at 2YO MSW level. In both, the horse simply run out of gas, but look at this work pattern of late, 6 consecutive works started with three 4F works, then two 5F, and finshed with a 6F work graded as a “B” by @clockerandy with notes that he pressed well, held, and looks strong coming back. Now the concern, looking at the dam, a 9x winner but only at 4.5F at Los Al. Am playing based off the conditioning pattern and work notes but wouldn’t be surprised if leg weary late, so back up with some that have late kick. #4 Lovely Finish and #5 Noor Khan both fit what could be a good race flow for them. For #5, I like playing these types where they only dirt start was at Los Al, as the configuration is unique there. Dam was a winner on dirt and turf and Violence babies strike at 18% on dirt sprints. Also like that both #4 and #5 are the elders against many 3YO’s in here. Both are must muses on horizontals for me, as I will be 3 deep on the “A” line. One big price to include for those looking to go deeper in this leg is #7 Mountain Pass. 30-1 line would be too good of value for a horse that has shown nice improvement and maturity in recent works, and was 9-1 in the same level race against Big Sweep who romped in her Echo Eddie Stakes win yesterday versus the boys. In that one, Mountain Pass got a wide trip and drifted wider late, but has had six straight conditioning drills and should be better off today. Is a half to Swiss Minister, a gritty 10x winner. For Exotic players, include underneath as this one has a shot at a big price.
Negative note- #11, trainer is 0 for last 37 on dirt.
Race 5: 8F TURF MSW $50k 3YO+ CA BREDS PACE: Slow/Moderate, 2 lone Speed?
Projection: Horizontal: A: 9 B: 1,6,7,8 C: 2,10,11 X: 3,4,5
#9 Bud Knight is top pick here, but there are many interesting prices to consider along with in horizontals. Bud Knights last effort was a strong one. Was 2-3W into first turn pressing the pace, then was passed early by a premature mover that he then repelled before far turn, took lead and then had stretch duel where he had clear gameness in the lane. Both the winner and 3rd place finisher were next out winners, could be time for Bud Knight too. Now some of the prices, starting with #1 Pour on the Cole for McCarthy. He doesn’t have horses cranked for first starts but he is good off a layoff which we see today with a $5.42 ROI of late. The breeding on this one is interesting. Dam was a sprinter, 4.5F type, but grand dam a stakes winning turf router. Look at the other trainer angles here too (dirt to turf $7.21 ROI, Sprint ot Route $8.47 ROI, and Jockey/Trainer $3.49, all with good sample size.) If this one has any of grandma’s talent on turf, look out at a big price. #6 Fravel has not lived up to expectations thus far as his sibling tree is loaded with turf route winners and 80+ beyers, but I do think this one has had excuses of late and has run against some nice horses. If pace is hot, could be a nice finisher if a good trip is had. #7 I am Innocent debuted from the rail with Roman aboard (Mario was on another Reddam in that race) and found himself last by the ½ but finshed strong in here for a nice 2nd with the last 1/8 at 12.36. Wish the gallop out was stronger, but there was enough on this debut to show some interest as they stretch out on turf. I prefer the sprints on Square Eddie’s, but they have proven to be able to win up to 1M as well.
**If the Peter Miller AE Unusually Handsome gets in, would make an “A” play with Bud Knight.
Race 6: 6F DIRT AOC $62K N2X 3YO+ PACE: FAST , #3 possible lone
Projection: Horizontal: A: 7 B: 4 C: 1,3 X: 2,5,6
Talented group of sprinters here and love the returns of Collusion Illusion and Rowayton. #7 Collusion Illusion will be my top pick, going against my normal angle of playing against 3YO’s vs older, but I have been a big fan of this horse with the 2 big first efforts at Del Mar. Plenty of speed in here where Prat can use the outside position to gradually make his way over behind the front runners to set up a big late run. Like the recent work, and if you were counting yesterday, Glatt had 3 winners, all on dirt sprints and one with Prat. #4 Rowayton can be dangerous as this talented 4YO does have some late kick and is cutting back. Was stalking during his route try in Saratoga, but considering the track had a closer bias, surprised did not show better late there but then came back better in the 7F sprint at Saratoga against Shancelot, Mind Control and Hog Creek Hustle and was 4th in a blanket finish, losing by a neck. Finished that race in sub 12 seconds over final 1/8, impressive. There is a chance that St. Joe Bay is the speed of the speed here, but I am thinking this one may have simply lost a step in his 8YO year. C horse solely for the lone speed scenario, but I think gets company today.
Race 7: 8F DIRT MSW $50K 3YO+ F&M PACE:
Projection: 6-4-1-9 Horizontal: A: 6 B: 1,4,5 C: 9 X: 2,3,7,8
Short and sweet, I really like Classy Ruler and have thought this filly, who has shown talent and run against some really nice ones, would improve with time. Works are solid and I think finally catches a bunch that she should best. Mike Smith makes me nervous, as he can tend to sit too far back, but hoping has more involved by the turn today. Note- the $750k Baffert debuter with C+ works, not that C+ is bad, but for Baffert debuters, not normal. Would be careful using there, I will be fading.
Race 8: 6F DIRT G3 DSRT STRMR $100K 3YO+ F&M PACE: Fast, 1 speed of speed
Projection: 1-5-3 Horizontal: A: 1 B: 3,5 C: 2,8 X: 4,6,7
Race is loaded with nice talent here. Let’s start talking about the obvious, ML Fav, Bellafina. This horse is back in California where she is 9:6-3-0 but has struggled outside the state going 8:0-0-1. She catches a tough bunch here but after the 46.4 4F workout under wraps late, no doubt she is ready to fire. #2 Mother Mother has been consistently good since returning from her break over last summer, with a win and 2 losses to the very talented Hard Not to Love. But my top pick here is one coming in off the layoff, and this one likely has matured quite a bit since running at 3YO. Last time we saw this one, she won the Torrey Pines Stakes by 8 open lengths. The race prior to that, she ran vs. older and finished 2nd by ¾ to a Breeders Cup entrant. Works have been lights out in the AM, finishing the final quarter of her 5F work in 23.2! DVD jumps off a talented First Star for this one, another positive sign. May single this one on some tickets knowing public will be heavy on Bellafina.
Race 9: 8F TURF CLM $25K N2L 3YO+ F&M PACE: Moderate
Projection: 1-7-10-2 Horizontal: A: 1,7 B: 2,10 C: 3,4 X: 5,6,8,9,11
Race 10: 8F DIRT AOC $40K N1X 3YO+ PACE: Very Fast,1 potential speed of speed
Projection: 8-2-1-5 Horizontal: A: 2,8 B: 1,5,6 C: 3,7 X: 4,9,10