Sunday January 19th
COLD JOCKEY’S : Bejarano 0-29, E.Roman 0-16
HOT JOCKEY’S: D. Van Dyke 27% (meet)
COLD TRAINERS: D. O’Neill: 0 for last 15 (0-6 yesterday)
HOT TRAINERS: Peter Miller 35% on meet, but 0-4 yesterday)
Winning Post Positions
Track Bias: Main track playing fair with a slight bias towards front end. Turf seems to be playing more fair, where we have seen both gate to wire winners and ones coming from off the pace of late.
Race 1: 5.5F TURF MSW $55k 4YO+ F&M CA Breds PACE: Lone Speed (#3)
Projection: 5-4-3-7 Horizontals: A: 5 B: 3,4 (+AE’s) C: 7 X: 1,2,6,8,9
Not the best bunch here with some strong cases for eliminating a few horses from the win end. Starting with #1 Civil Suit for Blacker, who calls on Asa Espinoza who is 1 for 78 in the last year on turf, yikes. Blacker 0-11 of late on first time starters, and a horse with modest works and a sire who is 8% on first time starters. Pass. #2 Suezanna is 0-5 and all in the low level claiming ranks, odd move to MSW here which comes off to me as overconfidence follow a strong of the horse hitting the board. Trainer 0 for last 23 on Turf and 3% at MSW level. #6 Dannybob is another taking the big step up in class after being a 50-1 shot in a MDCLM30k and finished without much interest. New trainer is 8% off the claim. #8 Spanish Channel is 0-12 and has only hit the board once and trainer is 3% at MSW level. #9 Mrs. Kimberly attempts to make the jump as well from CML to MSW, but more of the concern is around Empire Ways poor sire stats on Turf, with first time turf starters going 1 for 34, and turf starters in general 1 for 70. So far, we’ve eliminated 5 of the 9 horses, leaving us with four playable options (unless the AE’s draw in, which both are very playable). Top pick is #5 Bella Chica for Puype/DVD who will be making her first start since January of last year when she ran on the downhill course here in a duel with solid fractions where she showed some gameness in her debut. Puype not great of late with horses coming back of extended rest but is 16% lifetime. Dam is a 4x winner (including a stakes win) with a solid Thorograph top fig of 4 on turf. Considering her lone race was as newly turned 3YO, you have to think this one has gotten bigger and stronger since we have seen her last giving her plenty of upside opportunity here. Puype returns her to the MSW ranks with confidence and tabs his hottest rider (26% $4.38 as a connection of late) Like that she is posted outside the speed horse, could get an ideal trip here just off the pace. #3 Rosey Sky also returns off a long layoff where Koriner has not entered this one since May, when she left the gates as the favorite and led early before blowing the turn. Morning work notes show her doing well while retaining early speed, could be the one to catch here and has a favorable “lone speed” pace projection. #4 Into Rissa has been painful to watch if you’ve been betting her like me. This horse just doesn’t seem to have the winning mindset, nor can she get out of the gate smooth. From a figure standpoint, this is the horse to beat, but in 8 consecutive races has failed to break clean and when making her run seems to be rolling only to let up when she eyeballs the competition. Maybe the trainer change will help the gate issue, but I am more excited to see if Rosario can use his strength and/or timing to get this one in the winners circle.
Race 2: 7F DIRT MDCLM $40k 4YO+ PACE: Slow, lone speed (#1)
Projection: 2-1-6-4 Horizontals: A:1 B: C: 6 X: 2,3,4,5,7
Another bad group, with most of this field in over their heads as they appear to be more MDC20k types. The contenders are obvious here by looking at the ML, so not seeing much value to be had in this race. #1 Tromador has a very favorable “lone speed, slow pace” projection here and showed the early speed last race for his first time in 3 starts. He achieved a “9” Throrograph fig, which is much the best amongst this group and did it in a duel amongst strong competition. Many winners in his running lines from the last 3 races and one that has retained fitness with good morning works. Turf to dirt also a positive ROI angle for Koriner. Single. #6 Salah could be one to consider here if you want some coverage, but I am having hard time backing Bejarano during this cold streak of 29 straight winless rides. I will use on my backup ticket only because of the big recent monster works, and the fact he should be sitting just off the lone leader and if late kick is as present today as it has been in the mornings, has a shot. @clockerandy stated in his last work “King Kong drill in this context”. Can’t find any other that fit here, as all others have not been within 6 lengths of a winner at lower levels and the lone first time starter entered has mediocre works for a trainer who is 2 for 91 at SA, and a jockey who is 1 for 61 lifetime.
Race 3: 8F DIRT CLM $10k N1X 4YO+ Pace: Moderate/ Lone Speed (#6)
Projection: 6-3-1-4 Horizontal: A=6 B=3 C= 1,2,4 X= 5,7
After the first two bad groups, we are given a $10k CLM race, so card not off to a great start, but for this level, this one does have a handful of competitive hard knocking horses to consider. Another possible “Lone Speed” scenario here, top pick is the ML favorite #6 Top of the Game for underrated trainer Ryan Hanson. This 7 YO has been competing at this level for the last 3 races he has won, all done in gate to wire fashion. Last out included both Best Two Minutes and Liberty Park, who completed the Trifecta in that short field, but Top of the Game won with ease under a hand ride. Velez has been aboard the last 3 times the horse has won. Got to respect the fact Hanson has not tried to get this one back up the class ladder as it took some time to “find his friends” at this low-level claiming spot where he continues to win and gets another favorable scenario today. #3 Liberty Park, despite his loss to Top of Game last out, does perk my interest here a bit as he gave up considerable ground in the last being wide throughout. Rosales competes well in these low level claiming ranks and gets Mario back aboard here today. If there is an unexpected challenger softening up the top pick in the early or middle stages of this race, Liberty Park could be the beneficiary and roll late. I like the 5 weeks off he got after a busy Q4, with one recent work to prepare for today. Should be fresh and ready.
Race 4: 1M TURF CLM35k N3X 4YO+ F&M PACE: Fast / Contentious
Projection: 5-6-3 Horizontal: A=5,6 B= 3 C=4,7,10 X=1,2,8,9
Big field and very competitive turf race as the N3X’s usually are. Odd part is, there are four fillies racing above their eligibility here. Lots of pace in here, so I am immediately drawn to those that may be able to sit second flight and make a strong run late. Also some interesting jockey moves for this one, as Rosario replaces Prat on Playa Chica (off win) and ditches Querelle. Prat ends up on Artic Roll, a big upgrade for Lerner there. Top pick is #5 Point Hope who moves up off her win at the CLM25k level and holds the top turf fig in the race but an easy margin. Looking good in the morning off the win and gets DVD back. Last win was closing into slow fractions and has yet to race in fast fractions on a route, where I see it only beneficial to this one. #6 Playa Chica comes back off the break with Rosario on board. Win was impressive considering the trip and modest fractions, another one that will benefit from the likely speedy scenario up front today. #3 Querelle goes out for Peter Miller, 2nd off the claim. The 4W note in his last race is being nice, after saving ground early Joel made a rare premature move that caused Querelle to have to be very wide in both the turn and the lane, ended up flattening late. With better timing, this closer could show more, and Miller drops this one back to the class she was claimed out of after being odds on favorite while protected in a 50k Allowance. Race sets up well, just needs the trip.
Race 5: 5.5F DIRT CLM $12.5K N2X 4YO+ PACE: Fast/ Contentious
Projection: 6-7-1-3 Horizontal: A-6,7 B:1,3,8 C:2,4 X 5
Could be an early battle up front for the lead in this sprint amongst 4-5 horses, so jock moves and tactics in this one become a big piece to determining the winner. Top pick is #6 Friendly Steve who returns after an 11 month break for Heap, a move that has been profitable for him with a career $2.62 positive ROI for those coming back off 90+ days, the trend is even stronger of late with 25% winners and $3.02 ROI for those 180 days+. Morning works have been slow, but not uncommon for Heap’s style. Drops in class here and shortens up in distance. Unlike many of the speed in here, should have enough in the tank late during a contentious battle and is outside most of the early speed as well. #7 Norski gets Diaz back, jock that broke his maiden in gate to wire fashion at LRC. Put a line through the last as 1M was well outside this ones range and the fade showed it, but comes back here following very good works for much shorter. Has been competitive both on the lead and off of it, like the versatility in a pace set up like this. This would be a race where you may want some depth on horizontal tickets.
Race 6: 12F TURF GR.3 ASTRA STKS $100K 4YO+ F&M PACE: Possible lone lead #1
Projection: 2-1-3 Horizontal: A- 1,2 B: 3,5 C: 7 X: 4,6
Only one horse in this field has run this distance, and we see Asa Espinoza abord (see race one for his turf stats) so will be passing. I see it likely that #1 Lostintranzlation getting away with a lone lead as the two horses that have early speed figures to contend will be adding an extra furlong to their career long and contending an early pace wont help that challenge. #2 Tiny Tina would be the main beneficiary of any contention up front and has thrived on this local grass in her career.
Race 7: 6.5F DIRT MSW $55K 3YO PACE: Moderate / Contentious
Projection: 7-2-5 Horizontal: A: 2,7 B: 5 C: 1,3,4,9 X: 6,8
Best race of the day is one with 6 first time starters, but really, this one has the potential to be quite the group. I am really excited to track 3 horses in here that have very strong potential. Top pick is #5 Exhaulted for Peter Eurton. Eurton for the longest time was known to be xtra careful and patient with his first time starters, often giving them a few races to gear up for a well meant effort. But things are changing in the Eurton barn, with him getting some better talent and of late is winning at a rate of 17% and $3.24 ROI for debuts. He calls on Money Mike for the debut. Only question is, this distance may be too short for optimal performance on this one that is bred for longer. Look at @clockerandy’s note “ Grand looker can run forever; should be on the Derby trail this spring”. #1 Nadal will be your favorite and likely to take money for the Baffert/Rosario connection. Another one with hige works in the morning and clear front end speed, where the #1 hole works. He was a $700k purchase, and Baffert has been patient in training this one, but clearly looks fit and ready to roll. #7 Lanes Way for Mandella (another one who is winning first out of late) has been working great leading up to debut, and this $550k purchase for Spendthrift gets an ideal outside post in a smallish field for debut. Prat will have options based on the break and how quickly Nadal goes early.
Race 8: 8F TURF CLM $25K 4YO+ Pace: Fast & Contentious
Projection: 3-10-9-7 Horizontal: A:3 (11 AE) B: 7,9,10 C:2,4,5,6 X: 1,8