Early Pick 5 Plays:
10 / 1, 2, 3, 5, 6/ 3, 4, 6 / ALL/ 3, 9
2, 9, 10/ 2, 3, 5, 6/ 3, 4, 6 / 1, 6, 7/ 3, 9
Race 1: 6F DIRT CLM $10k 3YO+ PACE: Fast / Contentious
Projection: 10-9-2
ML Fav here, #10 Conquest Cobra stands out and should get a good setup here as the strongest late speed fig in a projected fast and contentious pace. Was claimed 2 back in Oct 19’ for $25k in the his only ever turf appearance in 35 career starts. Runs once protected for new owners over a wet surface at Los Al and now suddenly drops to a $10k tag. With the $20k purse, even a win nets a negative ROI for owners in a quick turn. But, after looking into the condition book, after a $25k Claiming event was washed off on Friday, there is not another spot for this horse to realistically run in condition book 1, so instead of shipping or waiting for book 2, both which cost money, they will take a shot here and hope to win or get by without a claim. That leaves us with a horse, where after putting a line through the wet tracks and turf effort, he has only the one dud in Del Mar when on the rail and the other races surrounding are 2-3 points better on thorograph and 5+ points better on Beyers than the best in this group. The list of quality horses this one has competed against in the past 13 months has been impressive (Nero, Flagstaff, Spokane Eagle,etc.) and today he sees his softest group yet. December 20th workout was graded a “B” by @clockerandy traveling smooth and under wraps. Horse has been popular at the claim box the past 2 years, being claimed 6 times by 5 different trainers, with todays situation, I am guessing there will be a shake for yet another claim.
Question here is, will Prat be riding tomorrow after being off all mounts for opening day due to a stomach virus. Regardless, the clear cut pick for me here.
#9 Seahawk Wave would be a must use in underneath exotics as he has hit the board in 5 of 6 dirt starts in 2019, and is 2 for 2 on the win end at Santa Anita. #2 Ridgefield Rocket is an interesting price play for debuting trainer Brian Cunningham of Cunningham Stables (previously used Kelly Castenada as trainer). He is one of the few horses in here with a thorograph fig (LA and LRC excluded) in single digits and should be an early pace presence.
Race 2: 5.5F TURF AOC $62.5k N2X 3YO+ PACE: Fast/ Duo
Projection: 3-5-6-2
The turf sprints at SA this past year have trended towards a speed/inside bias, but too early to tell for this meet following multiple changes to the track. Potential speed duel set up for #1 Restless Rambler (winner of 3 straight) and ML Fav #6 Whatsontheagenda. My top pick is #3 Ghoul, former Brazilian turf sprint champion who Gary Barber has moved from Casse to Miller. Pete excels with Turf Sprinters and is known to be able to move them up quickly off claims/ barn changes. Since rattling off 4 straight turf sprint wins in Brazil in 18’/19’ , he has only run on two firm turf courses (of 5 races) and now gets Rosario (huge upgrade) on board who should be sitting just off the early leaders. #5 Accountability shortens up following being gelded. Since the equipment change, he has been a new horse in the mornings with a very sharp series in December following the 6 month break. Will be coming late. Must use in exotics.
Race 3: 5.5F DIRT MSW $55k F&M 3YO+
Projection: 6-3-4 Pace: Controlling Speed
At a quick glance #6 Ava’s Charm appears to be likely winner with her controlling speed, ideal post, and prominent connections. But in diving into Formulater, Baffert horses coming back after 6+months off with DVD on board for a dirt sprint at SA are 1/11. I get it, that’s pretty specific on the filter, but the $0.47 ROI is a number loud enough to have me tread carefully here and ensure I include others horizontally. She has not shown anything yet in the afternoons, despite strong buzz for her AM works. I like the moves being made by Glatt on the 15-1 longshot #4 Kelani Kim. After 2 straight slow starts, blinkers are added and she gets one of the best gate riders on the west coast on board with Maldanado. Stong “B” work on recent workout and note that she worked in tandem (looked much better) with 50-1 winner from Saturday, Cowboys Daughter. #3 Sunny Dale is very logical and a must include for me. Has been up against some very good maiden’s this year (First Star, Into Chocolate, Out of Balance, Café Americano, Miss Stormy D) but must finish the job as she normally finds herself on or near the lead. Cutback should help here too if #6 doesn’t get away loose.
Race 4: 1M TURF MSW $55k 2YO PACE: Slow/ Uncontested
Projection: 6-7-1-11
Difficult to assess pace with these young maidens, but does not appear to be many that want an early lead. Could make it an interesting race with some potential for some prices. My top play, #6 Lookintogeteven, is actually one that has been coming from off the pace, but in reading the workout reports is showing more early speed and is maturing of late in the mornings. In looking at his replays, this one has not got a good trip yet, often wide and slow to begin. If Victor can get him behind the leaders early and stick to the fence, this one could be very dangerous as his late kick has looked dangerous. For a pace play, #1 Predictable Tully and #7 Carpe Vinum both could be vying for the early lead, and if loose, could control the race. Will also use #11 Lady Timmy Ho, liked the late kick shown in debut and Baltas horses can take a big jump forward in their 2nd start in NA.
Race 5: 6.5 DIRT CLM $12.5k N2L 3YO PACE: Moderate/ Contentious
Projection: 9-3
Two horse race here as this is a bad bunch and the two droppers in class also bring with them the only single digit thorograph figs for non LA/LRC tracks. No horse with good late speed, so contentious aspect of the upfront pace may be a moot point. Both #3 and #9 are also 3 YO’s with room for improvement, and the #9 with strong recent workouts.
Late Pick 5 Plays:
5,9 /1,8,9 / 1,2,5,6,8/ 4,6/ 2,3,6,9
1,2,5,9/1,8,9 / 2,5/2,4,6,7/ 6,9
Late Summary
Race 6: Love the $500k American Pharoah colt #5 Royal Act who won on debut (rare for Eurton) despite being wide throughout. Returns off solid works. #9 Smooth Like Strait has the speed in the race and could replicate the style in which he has won 2 straight (gate to wire, pulling away).
Race 7: #9 Eyes Open is a good looking debuter who has been showing promise in the mornings. Good value here at 6-1 with good position. #8 Venetian Harbor took big money on debut on the turf and despite being part of an early inside duel, had plenty left in the lane to finish a good 2nd. Gets dirt for the first time today and a dam that had a 1 for a fig on dirt sprints and sire who is 19% on dirt sprints. #1 Nora’s joy has been 2nd in each of her first two but also faced two of the best in the division. Could be her turn here against softer.
Race 8: #5 Overjoyed at 8-1 is great value. Half to War Story and figs that fit amongst the best in here, this one has been very sharp in the morning. #2 Guitty has always been an impressive worker in the mornings, but has struggled getting out of the gate clean in the afternoons. Despite this, has won 2 of three, but last out was disappointing. Again working well leading up to this, with comments stating he is relaxing more. Could get pace to run at here and also great value at 5-1.
Race 9: 4-6-7-2
Race 10: #6 Torosay looks like he will be tough and the controlling speed, a big plus on the turf sprint. Also has best Thorograph top of this bunch. #9 Shandling has a lot of morning buzz from his works and looks to be one improving quickly. #3 Big Runnuer beat Shandling on debut and has ran against good competition in the last two and has hit the board in each. Solid figs that standout here.