Santa Anita is back and all I right in my world. Despite all the issues this year, I really like the changes to the leadership of the track and as yesterday showed, the track is looking good and playing fair. Day one brought the return of Eight Rings in a nice Gate to Wire win (3 Gate to wire dirt efforts on the day but hard to call it a bias as they were clearly best ad we did see a winner from well off the pace).
Let’s kick it off with some thoughts on the front half of the card and the early pick 5. This early sequence is made up of 4 MSW races. For those that track results and horses, important to note that races 3 and 5 are the same condition for comparison purposes. Back half and Late Pick 5 will be out later today. Best of luck to all playing The Great Race Place today.
Pick 5 Suggestions:
Small Budget: 2/ 2,5,6/ 8,10/ 1,3,4,5,6/3,4,5,8,11 ($75)
Medium Budget: 2/ 2,4,5,6/ 2,7,8,10/ 1,4,6/ 3,4,5,8,11 ($120)
Large Budget: 2,3/2,3,4,5,6/8,10/1,3,4,5,6/ 3,4,5,8,11 ($250)
Race 1: 6F DIRT MSW50k- 3YO
Projection: 2-3-4 #2 Soldier Boy (Key Play)
Jumping right in with a strong opinion here on the #2 Soldier Boy, the third choice on the ML at 4-1. I am guessing he will end up taking some money though and go off as second choice as there has been some good buzz about his horse and his morning works. This $350k purchase for top owner Hronis Racing was the favorite in his debut opening weekend debut at Del Mar but had a tough start and trip overall. Came back to try turf in a 5F dash and drew the 10 slot with other speed inside that caused him to go wide. Recent workouts at Santa Anita have been fantastic, including leaving stakes winner Yuvetski in his dust, then returned a week later for a 1:00 5F under a tight hold. Has the best pedigree of the bunch IMO as well, out of a 2x SW Heidi Maria who had dirt sprint success and sired by Into Mischief who has had solid success with his 2YO’s. Big return here today for this one. If you are looking to back him up, you will notice a monster in the stall to his right, the ML fav and huge colt #3 Justinian. Justinian was odds on for his debut on closing weekend at DMR, but broke in and had an adventure of a trip. His multiple bullets sure indicate that this one can go, and in reading into the works appears to unleash a strong late kick. With Bejarano aboard, unlikely to go to the lead so look for this one late. Blinkers off for Baffert a winning move, but I can’t get passed the fact this one took so long to get to the track and then had issues combined with breeding that is behind my top pick.
Race 2: 1M DIRT CLM20k- 3YO
Projection: 5-6-2 Likely Spread Race
The claiming race in a sea of MSW’s for this early P5. The ML fav #5 The Creep stands out here, as his lone recent dirt start was a good one, with a Thorograph figure 2 points better than the rest here, and that race produced 2 next out winners. From that same race comes the outside post #6 Palladium for Looch. I like the move to add blinkers here and this one could be in the mix early in a race with not a ton of early speed. Already with the best late pace fig, will be interesting to see if this change moves him forward today. After these two, cases could be made for #2 Thin Line (possible lone pace, O’Neill/Garcia 26% in 19’), #3 Dr. Bagley (A head scratching $20k claim by Mullins based on figs, but still attracts Prat..they see something) #4 Royal Insider, the former Godolphin gelding who continues his class drop but gets a jock upgrade. So, for me it’s 2 deep or the ALL button.
Race 3: 1M TURF MSW50K-2YO
Projection: 10-8-7-2 #10 One Fast Bro (Key Play)
The first of two of this condition (Race 5 the other) today. This appears to be the softer bunch of the split condition, where I am focusing in on the pedigree of the outside horse #10 One Fast Bro. Normally, not a fan of the outside post at SA at the 1M distance, but with the early foot of this horse I am not concerned. A half to multiple graded stakes winners Awesome Return and One Fast Broad, this gelding already has the top Thorofig of this bunch and had 2 improved works following the equipment change. The morning line fav #8 Phast Pharoah is on the improve and showed some good late kick after a patient ride. I do not love the call of Asa Espinoza here though, a 4% Turf winner over the last 12 months and interestingly enough this will be the first time he rides for Bonde. #7 Liar Liar is an intriguing horse too, but I have got to believe Baltas is taking a patient approach with this one. Works have been slow and easy leading up to this US debut, and this brother of SW Pantsonfire could have a bright future.
Race 4: 6.5F DIRT MSW50K-2YO (F)
Projection: 1-4-6 Contrarian Opportunity
With me likely being skinny in legs 1 and 3, heres where I have a chance to be contrarian. Most will be on the Callahan and Baffert Fillies , but there are three others to strongly consider here in my opinion, with all likely to play bigger horizontally than their final odds. The $800k Callahan filly #5 Donna Veloce could be special, but to me appears to have a routing pedigree, may be need this one for experience and then look out as she stretches out. #1 Bristol Bayou cuts back to sprinting and gets Mike Smith on board for Sherriff’s who comes into this meet with a loaded barn. First start she steadied but still finshed well for a nice 3rd against stong competition. Next out was against KP Dreamin and Gingham but was will 8/5 in route debut. Was working fantastic in DMR but has had 2 easy drills at Sant Anita suggesting she’s fit and ready. #3 Le Tub lost to a tough Greg’s Diva but edged next out winner Éclair on debut at 35-1. Now moves over to dirt and retains Fuentes who is better on dirt. Works have not been flashy though, and makes you wonder if this was the reason they went Turf on debut (pedigree suggests can do either) and now they want to see what she will offer in the afternoon on dirt. I liked the late speed in debut, finishing in 11.2 so could be one to stalk and pounce here. #6 Nora’s Joy likely to improve and well bred. We know Mandella is patient, so first start not expected to win, but still a solid effort in 2nd against impressive winner Immediate Impact. Victor gets mount (was previously on Bristol Bayou) so could be extra motivated here and will have options from outside post.
Race 5: 1M TURF MSW50K- 2YO
Projection: 8-5-11 Horizonal Price Play: #3 Big Hoof Dynamite
A tough one, and great betting race here to end the sequence. #8 Governance is the likely speed here, and potentially could be there alone with Abel tasked to settle and save enough to get to the wire on top. In debut, went oo fast early, but got the breather in a slow 3rd quarter but still could not hold on. Since, has had 6 works alternating between 4 and 5F, but all in good fashion. This one should be fit with increased stamina today and a positive jockey change. #5 Best Chance should improve with the added ground and trainer stats are +ROI in routes and on the sprint to route moves. Curious move by Prat to jump off the #5 to debut Mandella’s War Front Colt, #4 Goliad. Here’s where I go against what I said earlier as I will play the Mandella on debut here due to the fact that this horse has win early pedigree (War Front 18% with 2YO and 3 sibs with a 10 or better Thorograph fig at 2 YO). #11 Eddy Forever gets a tough outside post, expect Talamo to be patient and move him to the rail early to save the late kick for the stretch. This Don Alberto colt finished very well after a slow start on debut and has worked well in the AM’s. The price play in here is #3 Big Hoof Dyanmite for trainer Jay Nehf (owned by Peter Nehf) who is searching for his first career win at Santa Anita (0-20). Workout reports that this one has woken up as of late, so at will likely be 25-1 or better against a bunch of inexperience, worth a shot.
Late Pick 5:
Ticket 1: 2,3,4,5,6,8 / 7 / 1,2,3/ 1,3,4/ 2,3,5,6,11 ($135)
Ticket 2: 5/ 7,8/ 1,2,3/ 1,3,4/ 2,3,11 ($1 base for $54)
Ticket 3: 2,3,4,5,8/ 7/ 2/1/ 2,3,11 ($3 base for $45)
Played against Donna Veloce, boy was I wrong in the early sequence. Only race out of the Pick 5 sequences is race 6, which is too bad as I love #3 Homehome there. Fantastic Pedigree of full sibs with early and sustained success, and no issues with Square Eddie’s on debut. Clocker Andy mentions he is “working like a professional”. Big play for me in that race. But here are my thoughts on the Late Pick 5.
In the first sequence, there are 4-5 horses that are so close in figures, but the only one of the bunch that is a 4YO and working like he’s on the improve is United. I can’t imagine Ritzy AP lets Acclimate get out to an easy lead again, and we have Cleopatra’s Strike that could be close enough to apply some pressure before they hit the far turn. I will be playing 2 tickets, one with a United Single, and another spread with 2,3,4,5,6 and 8 as there is very little separating the ohers should United not take the step forward or get caught in trouble on this trip.
Race 8 is the most likely winner of the day with #7 Comical Ghost. Working out VERY well with the best figs and likely improvement in first race vs. winners. Only other horse I would consider here is Candy Cornell, if #1 Value Play (playing against off the layoff) puts any pressure on the #7 it could give Candy Cornell a shot. Shallow regardless with 7 singled on one ticket, 7,8 on the other. If Kaleen Shah and Callahan burns me twice today, so be it.
Race 9: What a year for Beau Recall 5: 3-2-0 record even despite some less than ideal trips. The big question here is if the extra distance will cause any issues, other wise this would be an easy single at 9F or less. The extra distance will help Elysea’s World , last time going 1 ¼ was a winning effort and over this course. If she gets back to her top fig, she can surpass Beau Recall. The long shot play will be based on pace, where Mirth could getaway with an easy lead here and cuts back in distance. Last time going 1 ¼ at SA in a STKs race he almost pulled off the G2W victory, I will use all 3 here today.
Race 10: I am a big fan of Higher Power, was a key play for me in the Pacific Classic and I think he can give McKinzie trouble today. I also heard numerous excuses for Seeking the Soul from the PC, and he returns here today looking good and ready. Where many will single McKinzie, I will play these 3 or single Higher Power.
Race 11: Lots of speed in here, as expected in a 5F dash, and I will land on #11 Stealthediamonds here for Wong and Mike Smith as the “speed of the speed” where either she gets the lead, or is in a diel from the ideal outside position (as long as ground isn’t lost). If there ends up being a pace meltdown, I will protect with Apache Princess who cuts back and has solid late kick and gets Prat. Keith D is 24% on Route to sprint, and she gets class relief here exiting a Grade 1. Also, #3 Don’t sell has won 2 straight 5F Turf sprints, and this Square Eddie filly is on the improve. Because I am shallow in a couple legs, this is a leg where you can add in a couple more that have chances. Shanghai Truffles has late kick and can improve, and if #11 doesn’t fire, Miss Hot Legs would wind up on the lead.