Santa Anita Saturday! It’s good to be back after a short hiatus due to all of the issues at Santa Anita in March and early April. It was sad and frustrating for all, but we have had a month of clean fatality free racing and we all hope this continues for the remainder of the meet.
Important to note, since the race day medication changes and alterations of the track, things have changed as we are starting to see new angles and barns thrive, where others have completely dropped off the map. Let’s take a quick look at the current jockey and trainer standings since the spring meet started on 4/12:
With Rosario gone, Prat and DVD out of town for Oaklawn, Keeneland, and Churchill stakes cards, Bejarano is back atop the standings for the first time in a long while. Ruben Fuentes has been a quick riser and competing with these vets, and great to see Victor back and currently showcasing the top win % of the top jockeys here in the west.
The Trainer side is a bit more interesting, and take note of the O’Neil barn who has been red hot. They had a couple more wins yesterday and now comfortably lead the standings with 11 wins. Love seeing Andrew Lerner make his mark, great story and he had flashed success in Del Mar this past summer only to continue the momentum here at Santa Anita. Look out for him as he continues to add more owners and horses. Where is Peter Miller? Well, it appears the race day med changes have made a particular impact on this barn. Not only has he moved many horses east, but the ones that are running are not showing. With him as a regular top of the standings guy, and one who normally receives a lot of attention at the windows, he has been a profitable “bet against” since the changes with only 2 wins.
Some very familiar silks in the owners standings, les by Reddam who is 10 for 13 ITM.
To today’s card! Below is the first half of today’s card, I will be back in a bit with the late Pick 4.
Suggested Pick 5: 3,4,9 / 3,4/ 1,4 / 1,2,4,6 / 1,2 ($48)
Best Win/Show Wager: Race 3- Surface
Race 1: (4-9-3)
A full field for this 5F MSW dash with a mixed bag of first time starters and those still looking for their first win. I landed on top pick #4 Rosey Sky for Brian Koriner and ERacing. Koriner does not have strong numbers in first time starters at the MSW level, where he is 4% and $0.73 (on a $2 wager ave), but in a field of question marks, I like how the work pattern stands out with this one. I would expect speed, something this race surprisingly has little of from those that have ran (only exception is the #3), as the horse worked from the gate on 4/15 clocking a 58 seconds 5F work after a slow break. On 5/9 the horse returned to the gate where clocker notes have her popping the gate quickly and flashing speed to a B+ grade. The second choice in here is another first time starter in #9 Lakerjet for Doug O’Neil. Daughter of Lakerville (who has already sired 2 SW’s on turf (only year 2 of horses running) had a strong 4F work in March before getting some rest, then returned with the same speed on April 8th. Since has had three consecutive slow works, telling that O’Neil was just keeping her fit and ready for the debut as he saw what he needed to see. #3 Our Romance for D’Amato tries turf for the first time after flashing good early speed and getting locked in a duel from the inside in both her dirt tries. If she gets to the lead without pressure things could be different here, especially on the cutback to 5F. However, with the aforementioned likely speed from #4, may end up in a similar position. D’Amato’s numbers on dirt to turf (8% recent win rate) and Turf Sprints (6% $0.24) are not good, but if the trip works out, could be dangerous and would not leave off the ticket.
Race 2: (4-3-1)
Small field of 6 here for this $30k claiming race at 6F and I am going to look to beat the favorite with 2 horses who have not lived up to their pedigree. First choice is #4 Senditlikechilly for Papapodromou. Full brother to Mr. Jordan (7x Stakes Winner) was gelded shortly before his last start which did the trick as he won for fun off the 8 month break. Now, second off the layoff and with another conditioning work in since his 4/20 win, should be live. Trainer is 27% 2nd off the layoff recently, and when teaming up with Candyman on the horse, is 28% $3.20 ROI. The other breeding to look at here is the full brother to American Gal (4x SW) and Americanize (SW) who makes his 2nd start off the 10-month layoff #3 American All-Star. In his return, he ran over the All Weather Track at Golden Gate, so hard to tell how this one will run today, but improvement off the 3YO figs are expected and would make this horse fit amongst the top here. Vinnie Bednar gets the call, which should only help you secure more value, currently 5-1.
Race 3: (4-1-6)
Top pick is #4 Surface for Michael McCarthy and Eclipse TB Partners. McCarthy showed a lot of confidence in this horse debuting him at 1 1/8 on Turf. Dam is a 5x SW dirt sprinter, but there are many turf route wins found between his siblings. McCarthy is 45% 2nd out when his horse is 4-1 or less (5-1 ML but will take money) and 26% with Victor at an impressive $4.40 ROI. If this horse is 3-1 or better, I will be placing a large Win bet. Debuted with an 11 on Thorograph, 2-3 points away from where he will need to be to win today, but a lot of positive signs where improvement is expected. Horizontally will protect with the speed of the race, and the ML fav, #1 Magical Gray. Despite being caught and nosed out at 1M, connections confidently move to an extra furlong. We saw Smoovie go gate to wire on the grass yesterday, so if unpressured, would not be surprised to see it again today.
Race 4: (1-2-4-6)
A tough to read MSW going 1 mile on dirt. I am taking a shot with the first time starter #1 Commanding Chief for Sadler and Hronis with Victor on board. Not just a connection play here, but also like the pedigree with two sibs (halfs) recording -1 Thorograph figs on dirt routes. Will Take Charge has not had much success as a sire with first time out runners, recording only 5% win rate but have more faith in these connections to ensure the horse is fully ready. Steady work tab since March concluding with a 6F in company work on May 1st where he proved best. #2 Time is Now will find fast dirt for the first time as his debut was on a sloppy track and last out on Turf. Gets Mike Smith aboard now following a strong string of workouts and could be dangerous in here. #4 Always Forgiven has the Desormeaux brothers teaming up on this son of Blame. In last start, had to be steadied but still showed a lot in the stretch. Extra distance will help, and if he has pace to run at can be dangerous here. #6 Mica Bay has the bloodline that screams sprinter, but D’Amato moves the horse up from a MCL debut loss at 6F to 1M in MSW. When these moves don’t make a lot of sense on paper is when Phil usually surprises with a win where he has earned the nickname “ The Magician”. Short field, but I will need to spread for horizontals.
Race 5: (2-1-3)
The Santa Barbara Stakes, an interesting 1 ½ mile Turf race run on the downhill course. The race does not appear to be loaded with speed, but the downhill start could change that as I see Queen be to You going to the lead and hopefully setting some fast fractions for this distance to set it up for my two picks here. Top pick is the favorite and super talented #2 Causeforcommotion who came back off the break last month for a 3rd place finish in a 1M return where the horse ran faster splits as the race went on, a great indicator that this 1 ½ mile race sets up perfect for her. This coupled with a strong string of works should have this horse cranked and ready for todays challenge. I will protect with the likely lone speed #1 Animosity. With the scratch of Queen Be to You, this leaves the #1 as the likely pace setter and one of only 2 horses that is 4 YO (the rest older) where we can expect to see improvement. Very encouraging last out, will need to gun to the lead here on the downhill and then settle with the lead where Victor will need to look for any opportunity to give her a breather. #2 will be flying late, so all about how this race takes shape.
Late Pick Four Suggested Play ($1):
3,4/2,4,6/1,2/ 2,3,5,8 ($48)
Best Win Bet: Race 7: #4 North County Guy
Race 6: (3-4-7)
I looked for a horse to beat #3 Cece here, but even with the fact this is the lone 3YO in the race and up against tougher company now, that debut was simply as impressive as her breeding. This half sister to Papa Clem won her debut by 2.5 lengths after rating and moving clear. Has continued to work great and show no signs of regression. No horse is within a point of CeCe’s Thorograph debut fig, but #4 Lady Ninja is the closest and has won the last two time Prat has been aboard. If looking to protect on Horizontals, this would be the logical use. #7 Coco Kisses has hit the board in each of her last 7 dirt sprints. If you are the fan of playing Trifecta’s, would suggest 3 over 4,7 here as I am not seeing much in the rest.
Race 7: (4-2-6)
Top pick #4 North County Guy should be close to the lead in this one where pace seems void. Love the effort he put in coming up just short at this level last out, and he pressed and dueled in that one. If he can relax a bit and ounce at the right time, he could out game this bunch. Has the best top fig of this bunch and should improve as a 4YO and hopefully returns to his 3 YO top here. #2 Chosen Vessel exits the same race as North County Guy where he had a clean trip and was right there at then end to lose by a length. A half to 2x SW Miss Double D’Oro and a 4YO, would expect more improvement through his 4 YO campaign. #6 Quick Finish goes dirt to turf for Blacker and sprint to route (a profitable $3.59 move). Has had a busy work tab since his Feb start, should be fit and ready and like the call to Talamo on the green.
Race 8: (1-2-3)
Small 5 horse field with 4 of them coming back off extended layoffs and 2 will be running as first time geldings. Talk about a tough one to cap. For these I lean heavier on the work tab and work out reports. With that, I will eliminate #5 Once on Whiskey who was outworked by Hot Sean and earned C+ grades, something not common for Baffert trained horses so not sold this horse is fully fit or coming into this race at best. Top picks will be #1 Hot Sean and #2 Dessert Law. Hot Sean has been working inside of horses and draws the rail here. Should flash speed and like that he has been working under pressure and you get Pedroza on board who fits the style perfectly. Dessert Law has the best work grades coming in, where workmate (Bolo) could not contain him. Has the best top fig of the bunch too, so any return to previous numbers will likely result in a W here. These should be the only two you need in here.
Race 9: (3-2-5-8)
Focusing in on two horses who have been off since their August debuts on dirt in Del Mar. #3 Music to My Ears for Koriner and Jay Em Ess Stables was a $400k purchase and took money in debut as the favorite but drifted out and finished poorly. Has been conditioning well with 6 straight works all spaced 7-9 days apart and appears ready to roll. #2 Babael pairs Ellis and son in-law Talamo, who also took money in their August Del Mar dirt debut but showed nothing. Also well conditioned with 6 well spaced works with the last 2 from the gate where all appeared smooth. #5 Rayray a $400k purchase last April has been finishing strong in works, could see this one coming late if race falls apart up front. City Zips hit at 15% first time out and you have to be encouraged by Prat taking flight.