Welcome to horse racing Saturday @thedailygallop where although all eyes will be on the ridiculously good Belmont Stakes Card, I have some Santa Anita opinions to share below. But before I jump in, I have got to say how impressive Catalina Cruiser was yesterday. I know I wear my West Coast bias proud, but I was anticipating a big performance and he sure delivered with a stakes record time at the distance. But it was not the time alone that was impressive, it was how he did it. Broke poor, was pressured between horses while getting kickback off fast early fractions, and passed deep stretch against a golden rail bias. I thought the 6.5F off the break was a perfect comeback race but we will likely see him stretch out as they campaign with a goal towards the BC Classic or BC Dirt Mile and then finally to The Pegasus.
Belmont Stakes Day Key Plays @ Belmont:
Not my job today to give analysis on Belmont, but here are a few key horses I will be playing and that will be integral parts of my horizontal plays. I am one of many alive still in the 2 Day Pick 6 so hoping I can get that home.
Chalk Plays: I feel the two most likely winners on the card are Rushing Fall and World of Trouble who will both be odds on, but using as singles on most horizontals with other prices. They were wise to keep both of these races out of the late Pick 5 and Pick 4 as well as the two day pick 6.
Live Long Shots: The Woody Stephens looks like one that could fall apart with all the early speed. At 20-1 Hog Street Hustle could benefit with his closing kick. I also see this horse better on one turn, with both his wins coming in such. We know the LA Prep races have come up stronger than many would have imagined and this horse has found quite a bit of trouble in his trips. With a clean trip and fast fractions in front, screams value at 20-1. Probably not a “long shot” as if CeCe sees anything close to the 9/2 ML I would be surprised. Michael McCarthy shipping in is a sign of confidence in this talented filly who has put up back to back impressive figs and was impressive in how she did it in each. No shame in losing to a talented older filly, something none of the other contenders have tried (all have run in 3YO restricted races).
Met Mile and Belmont: Met Mile is the race of the year so far, such a loaded field. My pick is McKinzie but I am also keen on Coal Front and a BIG long shot in Tale of Silence. In the Belmont Stakes, I have been on the Tacitus train and will stay on here despite limited value. Will be using Intrepid Heart and Tax in horizontals, WOW as well, and Sir Winston underneath for exotics.
Santa Anita:
I get that many of the jockeys and trainers are out of town at The Belmont Festival, but was still expecting better fields today than what we got. Early pick 5 fields are pretty poor with 7,5,6,7,6 before any scratches. It does get better in the second half of the card with 8,8,9,11,10 so you may want to reserve bankroll for the latter half. No Stakes action today and 7 of the 10 races are claiming (not including the 2 AOC’s) and one lone Maiden Special Weight.
First half analysis and early pick 5 play here. Follow me on Twitter @RMcCarthy1 as I will tweet the plays for the second half of the card this afternoon after seeing how the track is playing.
1st half Early Plays:
Early Pick 5: 1,4,6,7/ 1,3/ 2/ 2,3,6,7/2,3,6 ($48)
Best Bet: Race 3: #2 Dukes Up (Win/Place)
Daily Double: Race 4: 3,6 / 2
Race 1: 4-7-6-1
A one mile turf race to begin the card features a battle for the leading owners for the sprng meet in Reddam vs. Hronis (#4 vs. 7). The race appears to be missing early speed with the exception of #1 Candy Swirls who set the pace in her last at doddling fractions but was swallowed up mid stretch and finished 3rd leaving no excuses. I think she will try the same strategy today and will hope for a different result against this bunch, which include 3 exiting the same race. I will include defensivly in horizontals as we know the turf course has recently favored speed, but like a few others as well. Top pick is #4 Fools Paradise who finally drops into the claiming level. This horse has been confidently placed in AOC and Stakes competition (including 3 Grade 1’s) for the past year without hitting the board. Only exception was a win at his lowest level of racing outside today an AOC $40k where he won by 5+ lengths. Has the best Thorograph figs of the bunch and also has a The cutback to 1M should be welcomed as well here and I would be surprised for us to get anything close to the 6-1 ML. #7 Tammy’s Window runs 2nd off the claim for Sadler and Hronis and comes out of a very strong AOC40k against two next out winners. Will need to be up closer today as the pace scenario isn’t ideal for the late kick this one has, but have seen her best when making an early middle move to put her in contention. #6 Shehastherightstuff closed in to the slow early fractions of Candy Swirls last out to finish 2nd and in front of the pace setter. Has also recorded strong workouts recently and should be improving.
Race 2: 3-1-4
An early Hronis double would tie them with Reddam in the Owners Standings and their favorite in here is #3 Jack’s Diva who comes off a winning effort in a Maiden Claiming race in April. Recent 47 second work was flashy, but done to all out pressure making me a little concerned it was meant to entice a claim here. Top pick here is the former Quarter Horse #1 Miss that Kat for Koriner, who owns these claiming levels and places his horses well. Interesting move to take him from $12k 870 yd sprints to an OC80k at 5F on turf last out, where he had a bad break and then swung wide before flattening. The drop here to $20k seems to be more of a fit and I am sure we will see some speed from this one, question is, can he hold on for 6F? Kornier is 27% and $5.68 when going turf to dirt, and 23% $3.92 recently with claims. Give me these two in this bad bunch to stay alive.
Race 3: Another short field but wide open race. Can make a case for any of these horses but will be singling the 5-2 ML #2 Duke’s Up as this race appears to have plenty of early speed that should set him up well. This poor guy has had a tough time finding pace to run at, only finding 1:11 and change fraction once and that was last out. Unfortunately for him, he acted up at the gate and lost some of the needed energy but still closed well for 2nd. Gets Kent on board today who has ridden the horse in his top 2 speed figures in his career. Recent speed figures fit, and with improvement will be best. Much of the field appears likely to regress.
Race 4: 3-6-7-2
Going a bit deeper in this Maiden Special Weight event. Top Pick is #3 Desmond Doss for D’Amato and Nick Alexander where this horse has been working well since a “blah” debut. Full sibs had 9 Wins in 37 starts, at 6-1 against a questionable field this horse could wake up today. #6 My Journey makes his return following a year and a half layoff, normally you want these types to get a race in but Baltas can have them ready to fire (24% win rate in last 42 for 180+ days). Work tab has been strong and steady for the past month and has earned B grades. #7 Bud Knight showed some late kick in debut and has some strong breeding for turf routes. Works have been on the green side, but like the outside post. Finally, as much as I don’t like using Miller horses since the med changes, #2 Jamming Eddy has by far the best speed figure in this field (post med changes) and gets DVD to ride. This horse was a different animal on the turf in the last for his debut.
Race 5: 2-3-6
I like the addition of blinkers on the favorite #2 Convince (despite Belvoir’s poor recent Blinker on stats) as it appeared to keep him focus in his recent drill. With speed figures already 2 points better than the rest here, really just needs to maintain, but I feel improvement coming here. #3 A Dime for Me should be the speed and when that is coupled with a rider who excels with that tactic, you need to include. Any misstep by Convince, and this horse is the likely winner. Will also use #6 Heloise who continues to improve each time out and if there is any pace duel up front she could pick up the pieces. Tamayo is 24% off the claim in his career.