Happy Horse Racing Saturday @thedailygallop! For those that played along horizontally last week, congrats, as we hit a small $495 Pick5 at Santa Anita. I also almost got there on the Two Day Pick6 at Belmont on Stakes Day, with being alive to Intrepid Heart, War of Will, and Tacitus but obviously coming up empty with Sir Winston getting a perfect ride from Rosario. Was an exciting ride though, and I hope we see more tracks do a low takeout multi day pick6 for $1 or less base over big weekends.
On to today, where the front half of the card is pretty bad with three races having 5 horses or less currently. The early pick 5 sequence is 5-9-4-10-5 comprised of 2 CLMing, 2 AOC, and 1 MSW race. The Late Pick 4 has some solid fields though with it shaping up 11-9-7-12. On these 9 race cards, if you are a horizontal player, pay close attention to the races that end up in both sequences, for example Race 5 is in both the early and late Pick 5 sequence, so from a handicapping perspective start there, and spend more time analyzing that race.
Strategy today will be to focus majority of investment towards the back half of the card, as this is where we will see more horizontal opportunity for big pays. There are some spots early I will take selectively. Below is a breakdown of the early Pick5, I will be at the track today and posting thoughts about the back half as we go. Follow me @RMcCarthy1 to follow along.
Early Pick 5: 4,6/ 7 / ALL / 1,2,6,7/ 1,3,4,5 ($64)
Race 1: 6F Dirt, $12.5k Claiming
Top Pick: #4 Big Shanty (2/1)
Quite a bit of early speed lines up in this one, with the 3 through 6 horses all over 100 for early pace figures on Timeform and each of them showing a history for getting into speed duels. Normally this makes it easy to simply look for a horse who has some history in passing horses late, or a strong late Timeform pace fig, but this bunch simply does not have that with the exception of the outside horse #6 Baby Bear Soup. I like the slight cutback here, where only he and the #4 horse are leaving multiple races at 6.5 and 7F for todays 6F dash. Asa Espinoza will have some early decisions to make, if he goes for the early lead he risks being kept wide with as much speed as there is on the inside, if he allows the speed to go, he will look to stalk and pounce but this horse has only shown that ability at Los Al, a very different track with the long stretch run. In horizontals I will use, but you wont get value here on much else as this favorite could be vulnerable in this setup. Top Pick is #4 Big Shanty, the ML second choice and the horse that holds the top late pace fig on Timeform at 61, while also showing some good spark in the AM, including a B+ work on 5/6. Horse has also been consistent on Thorograph figs (8 fig the last 3) with the best number of the bunch last out (aligns with Beyer). In these 3 year old and up races, I also like when there is a lone 4 year old against often raced elders. The 4 YO will have more opportunity to show improvement on his figures, which already are top of the bunch. Javier Sierra lives off these lower claiming races and is showing a $2.62 ROI in these types, and gets this one going off the claim last month ($2.50 lifetime ROI on 1st off claim) where he has had the time to get 2 works in since last race.
Race 2:1 1/8 F Turf Race OC40K NW1X
Top Pick: #7 Kenjisstorm ( 5/2) *Single*
The turf speed bias is real (especially at the 5F distance) where again yesterday we saw all turf winners on or right near the lead. This has been a trend for 2 months now, and has only changed for 1 weekend, it happened to be the weekend after we saw rain (and when I got nosed out of $20k by a late closing Oscar Dominguez). Since I have been playing it as a slight bias, with it growing more favorable each week. Looking to really use this as an advantage today, on another dry day where we saw it very evident yesterday. With that, I will eliminate the 3,5,6,9 from consideration, where I could see the 3 and 5 both taking money due to Prat and DVD being on board and figures ranking amongst the best in this group, but for me, I will take a stand against. There looks to be a clear pace setter with #7 Kenjisstorm (who was worth over $30k on my pick5 ticket that lost to Oscar Dominguez last out.) As I said, this was one of the few days where speed bias was not present, so today where he is a playback for me. You can put a line through his efforts 2 and 3 back (one dirt, the other soft turf) and you are left with a horse running big numbers against very strong competition( running line names include Stromy Liberal, Caribou Club, Itsinthepost, Fashion Business….Breeders Cup types.) D’Amato clearly has no concern of the fade last out, as he gets him right back here at 9F when there were 1M Turf options available. There are some nice horses in here, but Kenji stands out as a single for me with best top fig, best recent fig (both align with Beyers), controlling speed with a early speed gate jockey in Maldonado. Just hoping to get 9/5 or better. Single.
Race 3: 6 ½ Dirt CLM35k F&M
Top Pick: #3 Portal Creek (7/5)
Four horse field, and a pretty bad field. 3 of the 4 are dropping in class, with the #1 horse who owns the top fig and best last out fig is moving up. I would not be surprised in any result here so with the first two legs being very shallow in the pick 5, I will use all 4. Top Pick would be #3 Portal Creek, who kicked off the Santa Anita Winter Meet with 2 straight wins was then put in over his head at OC50k and then 50k Allowance against older. Here he gets back with his friends, and will benefit from the drop and being back in 3YO restricted races. I would be cautious on the #1, if you have a strong opinion, as her only wins have been at Los Al, appears to be the likely pace setter, and unlike the Turf, on the lead has not been favorable lately with the track being deeper and slower.
Race 4: 5F Turf MSW65k
Top Pick: #1 Hit the Seam
The game here is finding the early speed amongst this bunch of lightly raced or unraced 3 YO colts. For the unraced horses, the best way to do so is to read the work out reports and look at work patterns to see what we may be able to expect. #3,4,5, and 8 all have mentions in their work reports that there was no early speed or that they struggled to keep up with workmate. Not likely to suddenly show speed here so feel comfortable in eliminating on the front end. Now that 40% is eliminated, we dig into the others. We have 4 remaining horses exiting a crazy 5/25 race (race 2 at SA) where Hit the Seam boke his rein and took out both Give me the Lute and the fav. This left the race up for grabs and both Master Ryan and Fredrickstad showed solid late kick to take a photo together. Now, Peter Miller continues to be atrocious since the med changes (<7% win rate) and here gets Prat back on board and has back to back bullet works which should attract some money. The big question is do we take a stand or not. He was traveling well in the last, looming boldly on the outside while contesting 21.2 and 45 from Hit the Seam, but after the rein broke, all three were wiped out. Let me get to Master Ryan, full brother of a horse I had some ownership in, Tony Blackjack, and SW Barbara Beatrice. The Dam, Showtime Apollo is Phil’s and this one was named after Phil’s son Ryan. There is a consistent issue with her foals, they are slow starters and take a bit to get rolling. When they do, they come on strong, but this bias is not a fit and will really need another freak issue to occur up front or for the race to go sub 21, sub 44 to be able to pick up the pieces. Not seeing it, another eliminated. #9 Tiger on Six exits the same race, where he was 30-1 and drifted in after the incident. After watching the headon, he should have been the main beneficiary but just didn’t have it after being hustled from the gate to still be behind the early leaders. Not talented enough here IMO. Top Pick is Hit the Seam (can’t believe I’m typing this) as this horse is 0-16 life and Reddam has continued to keep him in the MSW division instead of dropping for a tag. But here today, gets a softer bunch and a bias that will help and hopefully a strong rein. Was able to get an easy jog in to stay fit, as the last race didn’t take much out, has the clear best figs in the field, and has some strong full sibs to live up to. 2nd time on the cutback, and a chance to finally break his maiden. The line in #6 Fredrickstad’s work out report from @clockerandy reads “Improved speed, responding well, should be more involved early” and earned a B+ from Toby Turrell. Must use. #7 Twisted Plot has the best early speed fig on Timeform but tries Turf for the first time, an interesting move as there is no turf on his dam and sibs side and new sire is 0-2 on turf production too. Will use defensively for the speed bias here, and could be the reason for the test here.
Race 5: 1M Dirt OC80k
Top Pick: #5 Draft Pick
Some solid horses line up in this small field of 5. Pace should be a hot one between #1 King Abner and #3 El Huerfano. King Abner has 3 second place finishes in 4 races this meet at Santa Anita, a cool horse that always tries hard and fights and will also make it exciting for you on the front end. El Huerfano has lived at this level lately with 7 of his last 8 races being OC62k varieties resulting in 8: 3-2-0. Pretty solid, and really showed good fight in his last race where Cerin dropped $62k for the claim. Cerin is 28% off the claim, my question is if he is being brought back too soon after a tough race. I feel better with his recent work, graded a B where he was in company with the speedy Calexman and was noted as having plenty left in the tank. #2 Route Sixtysix has been able to duel and win against less, but looks to be in over his head here. Late speed fig not strong enough to warrant using if Abner and EH duel up front, and was not able to compete with EH despite the winner losing his whip. Like his progression, but seems up against it today. The #4 For the Top will be used and is the wild card here today for Baffert. Strong Timeform figs out of his Argentina races. Exits a strong gate workout for Baffert and gets 1st time Lasix. Unclear if he will contest or sit off, but has options with his post. #5 Draft Pick returns from a 10 month layoff and Eurton can have them ready (22% $4.22 with a strong sample size of over 30 races). Figs are not fast enough to fit, but are based on mid-year 3YO season as he makes his 4YO debut today so we can certainly expect improvement. 6 consecutive works strung together, including 2 6F, and a 7F work should have the horse fit. Must use and top pick for me to surprise her at a small price off the pace.
Some short key notes on the final 4 races. May make changes based on how the trac plays early.
Race 6: Turf so look for speed. 2 and 10 show it on paper, but not using 10 as you can see obvious form decline for Miller. Prefer #11 Smoovie who gets wheeled back from his GG race 2 weeks ago and gets a pace bias to take advantage of. #3 must be considered, best last out figs on TG and Beyer and has good front and back speed on Timeform. Was also a beaten fav (2nd) at this level last out.
Race 7: Work Pattern for #7 off the layoff is what I like to see. 3 bullets, then 2 5f+ maintenance drills. Could be a player. 10 the clear pace, coming off a sharp drill and 1st off claim, was not able to hold lead following a duel last out. If alone, could be dangerous. Also, don’t dismiss #1, best late kick and last time he was on SA dirt won in a strong rally, the type of run that has been winning these races. If #10 duels, could set up well for this one at a price. Ruis also very good with Turf Sprints (21% $4.04)
Race 8: #6 Desert Law second off the layoff for Gaines (38% $12) and records B and B+ works. Needed his last one and was just off a very hot pace. Watch the board on the #4 Smiling Angelo, good work reports and if bet down is live as we know D’Amato barn likes to put action on his live ones. #1 fits but rail does not help here with the speed outside of him, downgrade despite top recent fig and beyer.
Race 9: Two next out winners finished ahead of #1 Darpa in her debut. Hronis fighting for an owners title. #6 Shanghai Truffles drops from MSW where she was not far behind some good ones and works are telling of some more early speed to be shown here today. #8 off slow in last as fav and beaten by ½ at this level, returns off good works and cuts back by a furlong. #10 caught in a fast duel on dirt in debut and faded, now is asked for 2.5 more furlongs. Like the confidence and has the breeding for turf routes (SW Sib Roo’s Valentine), at 12-1 with a pace bias and a sire with 16% First time turf, certainly holds good value. Eliminate the #3 on por works.