Good Morning and best of luck to you all as we have a nice 10 race card today at Santa Anita. Keep an eye on the weather, as of now it appears rain will hold off until later this afternoon, but there is a chance it starts during the final few races. Also note that yesterday we saw 8 of the 9 races run won from on or right off the lead, only exception was Little Bit Me on the downhill turf. Overall for the meet the track has appeared fair, but keep an eye on this recent speed trend today as it could give you an edge.
Early Pick 5 Suggested Wager: 1,8 / 1,7 / 3,4,6,7/ 2,8/ 4,5,7,8,9,10 ($96)
Race 1 (1,8): A puzzling first race that centers around how you feel about #8 Encumbered’s massive drop in class. This NW3 condition is always interesting as you see these types, but this horse has run 4 consecutive graded stakes races (including 3 Grade 1’s) after winning two straight on turf at a mile in Del Mar, facing competition the rest of this field hasn’t sniffed. In those four races though, Encumbered was beat by a combined 80 lengths, yikes. Looking at the condition book, it appears there is an AOC race that fits Encumbered at this distance on 1/13, but instead they elected to put the horse up for a lower tag here. Since his last race in July, he has been gelded and has put in 4 encouraging works in December. Callahan is strong with these types of drops into claiming ranks (26% $2.48) and gets a good outside post, where Mario prefers to be. Despite the class he has run with, Encumbered has not put up strong speed figs, beyer or Thoro, so it all comes down to if the layoff, equipment change, and class drop equate to an improved effort. I will include in my horizontal bets, but will be taking a stab at value on top here with #1 Van Cortlandt. This horse dropped in class in last out at Del Mar following a 6 month layoff. The race was taken off the turf and he turned in a clunker after breaking slow and never getting in contention. This horse wants the Turf, so cross out that effort and the 1 ¼ dirt run at SA in April. We are left with his June effort on turf at 1 1/2M where the saddled slipped off after breaking, so no chance there either. If this horse returns to form from early 2018 on Turf, 5-1 will be good value. Add a good work tab to the positives here as well as a trainer with +ROI in claiming races. The other two to consider for Horizontal action are #3 Incredible Luck and #4 Camino de Estrella based on Thorograph, however I have a hard time backing jockey Payeras 4 for 100 at SA, and 0-25 on Turf*. With #4, it’s the trainer Yakteen’s 8% career turf win rate, and 1 for his last 40 that I struggle with here on a horse running turf first time in 2+ years (0-12 dirt to turf). For me, will start skinny on my ticket with the 1,8 only.
Win/Show Bet: 1
Exotic: Trifecta 1,8/1,3,4,8
Race 2 (7,1): Maiden Claiming race for fillies and mares at a mile brings 5 of 7 of the horses dropping in from MSW company. I am looking for a horse I am confident can get the mile and that is meant for 2 turns. The two ML favs don’t fit this mold, as #3 True Validity is stretching out for the first time after not finding a win sprinting in first 5 starts. Pedigree is sprint heavy and workout reports even mention the fact this horse moves like a sprinter. Note Callahan’s drop to claiming success mentioned in race 1, and horse has best thoro figs of the bunch, I just don’t think this is the ideal placement, will pass. I do not like how #4 Queen of Track has faded in each race she’s run, and if you look 2 back to the pace 48.3/114.2 and see no kick left you should take note. Pass. I landed on a price here and like #7 American Falls, the only horse of the bunch moving up in ranks (Hanson confident) despite other options in the condition book. Key work on 12/22 by American Falls (following 2 good 6F drills) on a deep surface showed the promise, and Hanson followed it up with an easy conditioner on the 30th. Only horse of the bunch to run 1M on dirt twice and as a Curlin baby should improve. Quinonez/Hanson combo are 2 for 4 this meet already and I like the outside post here in a small field with the key speed on the inside (#3,4). Also like #1 Lily Con and feel could be underbet and offer good value. Debut race in July was vs. Chasing Yesterday (American Pharaoh’s sib), so the fact she did not take money there does not concern me. Baltas has started this meet hot and we also get a jockey upgrade to Rosario. Some good routing pedigree on dam side and despite the disappointing debut year of Verrazano babies, his best win% is at 1M+.
Win/Show: #7
Exotic: Tri 1,7/ 1,3,7/ 1,3,4,7
Race 3(6-3-7-4): CLM 50k at 1 1/8M on Turf for older horses here, a distance only 2 of these have gone. The ML favorite #3 Aussie Fox is deserving, with 2 recent 2nd place efforts and improving figures along with strong workout reports. Will be using. My top pick though is #6 Mo Bob, who is coming out of the same 2 races where Aussie Fox finished ahead of him. In both those races Mo Bob was off slow, and in the last race was bet down to the favorite. D’Amato “The Magician” should get this horse to improve and I like the pedigree better than Aussie Fox on getting the 1 1/18. Very strong workout reports on Mo Bob as well, have these two the top contenders. I will also be using #7 Falcone on the pick 5, another likely short price with improving figs and strong turf routing pedigree. #4 Tastemaker is the wildcard here, nearly a year and a half break, but Sise has good numbers and positive ROI off long breaks, and I like the steady work tab and 6F works this horse has been getting. Also, great pedigree here Candy Ride/ Sweet Catomine, if this horse improved off the long break, could certainly pull off a win here. Side note- #8 has turned in poor workouts, C grades all around with lack of pedigree to get this distance, would avoid.
Exotic: Exacta 6/ 3,4,7
Race 4 (8—2, 5,6): 6F CLM 25k NW2. On the outside we have #8 Kidmon, a class dropper for the always dangerous Hronis/Sadler/ Rosario connection. Declining figs with this one causes concern but note the equipment change (gelded on 11/2). Horses peak figures miles better than this field, so any form reversal likely puts this horse in the winners circle. Lots of change though as he is cutting back in distance, going from turf to dirt (although primarily has run dirt), gelded, and first time claiming so may be too much change for some to roll the dice on, but I have to include. $550k purchase, so having this one up for a tag certainly hurts the Hronis wallet, but honestly is there another guy in racing you would rather be? Probably not. I will protect this one by also taking the clear speed of the race #2 Cayate. I like his figs at SA, seems to like it here and if he can show any improvement has a legit chance. Will all come down to if he can get clear and unpressured or not (#1 the early pressure threat) as 5.5F seems to be more this horses target. If you want to expand your ticket, #5 Bear Chum is interesting has horse showed improvement in second race after coming over from Happy Valley and has logged some nice workouts since being freshened up. #6 Spa Shackalaka also interesting with the weight allowance and strong ROI with D’Amato/ Figueroa connection.
Win/Show: #8
Trifecta: 2,8/ 2,5,6,8
Race 5 (4-9-10-7-5-8) $55k MSW on the downhill, where only one horse has run this unique course and most will be seeing the grass for the first time. Here is where we spread. Top pick is the horse that has run the down hill, #4 Volubile. He saw action on his debut and despite a slow start, finished well with a next out winner a head of him. I like Joe on the down hill as well and appears he will have some pace to run at, just hope he breaks well and sits off the leader(s). #9 Parsimony, a $400k purchase in March of 2018 has not lived up to expectations, however has faced some stiff competition as some big names appear in his running lines (Sparkyville, Gunmetal Grey, Roadster). Some good turf pedigree so would not be surprised if this change is a positive one for this horse and right now is offering great value at 8-1. #10 Secret Courier debuts for the Koriner barn that is red hot with his firsters (3 in a row winners) and is known to place his horses well were they can truly compete. On 12/11 workout was asked for speed from the gate, would not be surprised to see this one up there early. #7 Light the World, a $500k March18 purchase was beat by Coliseum in debut but ran the 2nd best thorograph fig of the bunch and 2nd highest Beyer. Turf is the concern, and a head scratcher, as there is very little turf success in this pedigree. Horse gets weight allowance with Asa and Mandella good recent dirt to turf ROI, so I will include. Top thoro and Beyer fig go to #5 My Mandate here, who has run 4 times all on dirt but showed big improvement last out. Freshman sire Strong Mandate has had only 1 race on turf but some turf pedigree on dam side. Has early speed and big jockey upgrade to DVD. Finally, #8 Mutineer, a $200k purchase by Into Mischief that has not been able to find his late kick in first 2 starts, but recent works say this horse is ready to show improvement. Good sprinting pedigree on dam side, question will be if he likes the turf or not.