Happy Pegasus Day! Too bad mother nature appears on these big racing days far too often, but wishing all the horses’ safe trips and you many of cashed tickets. Although I will be playing both GP today, my focus here is on my home track of Santa Anita, with the big PWC races added in at the end. Below is the early pick 5, which consists of three 6 horse fields, and three 6F dirt sprints today. Late plays coming soon as the back half of the card offers bigger fields and some great betting races. Another 4 of 5 in the EP5 last week, I am due….
Early Pick 5: 2,7,9,10/4,5,6/4,5/1,6/2,4,6 ($72)
Race 1🙁 2-7-9) Top pick in here is #2 Honor Guard, at 10-1 on the ML. Baffert debuted this horse last February at 1 1/16, and the horse saw some action on the board. Lots of positive angles here on the changes for D’Amato (drop to CLM 26% win rate $2.07, Blinkers OFF 26% $3.22, w/ Tiago 18$ $2.42) Sib of 4x winner and 1x SW Gloryzapper who handled turf routes with a 7 thorofig, which would best this bunch. Some early foot potential that has yet to have a clean trip in 3 starts. Solid set of works since his race off the long layoff on 11/30 (race that was taken off turf), expecting Thorofig improvement here with a good trip which would put this horse right there with the low prices. Value. #7 Aussie Fox has had a case of seconditis, with three 2nd’s in a row.Always starts to make me wonder if this horse lacks the competitive spirit to pass horses in the stretch, but in watching some past replays I don’t hink that’s the case. He has the best Thorofig amongst this bunch, and Thorograph also does not have this horse declining the way Beyer shows. Good set of works since last race, an 1/20 workout had the horse working inside willingly so I am liking what Yakteen is doing with him. DVD stays on board, and he should get a much better pace to run at today vs. last out. #9 Arch Anthem drops into claiming ranls after 5 tries at MSW. Hard not to love the pedigree with 4 sibs with a 7 Throrofig or better routing (including 2x SW Stevie wonderboy). Has faced some stiff competition in running lines of previous, so this drop in class could be what the doctor ordered. Like Aussie Fox, should like the upfront pace scenario in front of him.
Win/Show: #2 Honor Guard
Exacta Box: 2,7,9
Daily Double: 2,7,9/ 5
Race 2: (5-6-4) Short field that I am cutting in half for the P5. Top pick is the likely favorite #5 Owning. After winning his debut at the MSW level, this horse was thrown in the deep end running against Instagrand in the Best Pal, King of Speed in the DM Juvenile Turf, and Mucho Gusto in the Bob Hope. He did not fair well in any of those, and then was dropped to a 32k CLM race that he won last out in December in a stretch duel. Now, drops another level to $25k CLM level which is a little worrisome, but honestly, between 20-40k claimers may just be where this horse will thrive and Reddam known both to take big chances and aggressively drop. 1st time gelding and since the equipment change has worked three times (with Mario) with solid ratings, so no question on fitness or adjustment to the change. Best late pace fig by Timeform in a race that should have some very good up front speed. Simon Callaghan 44% recently in Claiming races, 24% lifetime. Look out for this big white horse down the lane. #6 Just Hit Play returns to dirt where he won here at this distance in October at the $30k CLM level. Has faired well in 2 outside posts, and has enough early speed where this could be an advantage. B+ workout on 1/21. Another that is taking a big drop here in class, and Miyadi solid recently on the Turf to Dirt move ($3.50). #4 Gleybar has the best Throrofig of the bunch with a 12 last out and is sib of 12x winner and SW Close to the Edge who thrived in dirt sprints. Son of Goldencents, who is off to a slow start with his 3 YO crop (2 for 25) but also does best with dirt sprinters.
Win/Show: #5 Owning
Early Pick 4: 5 / 1,4,5/ 1,4,5,6/ 1,2,4,6 ($24)
Race 3🙁 4-5-1) Will take a stand against the morning line favorite #1 Our Silver Oak as this horse is seeing much change in this race (dirt to turf, route to sprint, 1st time downhill, 1st time gelding) and gets the #1 post where on the downhill this is a tough disadvantage especially with the #2 likely to show early speed. I like that he put up a bullet in his first work post equipment change, then Morey had easy 5F works after (confidence to me) but I will count on a couple others here who finished 1-2 on 1/1/19. Top pick is #4 Irish Heatwave who won here New Years Day on this course in an OC50k despite having to steady in the stretch when trying to pass horses. Nosed out #5 Listing who looked like a sure thing when he exploded in the stretch. However, if you look at the replay, the misstep out of the gate caused Mario to rush him up early before settling behind the front pack, this expensed energy really made the difference in coming up just empty. This horse has three full siblings, of which 2 are stakes winners on Turf Sprints. Some more room to improve here for Listing, and with a better trip could be best of this bunch.
Trifecta: 1,5/1,5/ ALL and 1,5/ALL/1,5
Race 4: (6-1-5)Cal Cup Sprint is shaping up to be a good one. Heck Yeah returns off a 9 month layoff for Baffert and I think this horse will get a lot of play, but I will be playing against here with 2 selections as he has not seen this level of competition on dirt yet and I find it unlikely he will be loose with an easy lead. Promising horse, but this is a lot to ask in his first back. Also playing against the ML fav, Richard’s Boy. We know LRC is a unique dirt course in itself, and although he ran well on it, I still question why the sudden change from Turf where this horse thrived, not to mention the fact he was 0-8 in 2018. Top pick is #6 Touching Rainbows for D’Amato who will need to return to early summer of 18 to form to take home the victory here. Last two 6F SA races were victories before he stumbled out of the gate going 7F against a very good bunch (American Anthem, St. Joe Bay, Dabster) and then being tried out on turf where he didn’t show the same early foot. After a short break, he returned in Del Mar at 7F again was dueling around the turn and then got caught inside before fading (did not want to be there at DMR). After a steady and encouraging work tab, the horse should be fit, has been proven to fight in the stretch when outside horses, and gets back to his ideal distance. Must play #1 Edwards Going Left as well, especially considering he blew Touching Rainbows in the aforementioned Del Mar race and his recent strong works. Best Thorofigs of the bunch, likes SA and will be happy to not have to race the likes of Roy H, Ransom the Moon, and City of Light here today.
Win/Show: #6 Touching Rainbows
Daily Double: 1,6/ 2,4,6
Race 5: (4-6-2) Another competitive 6 horse field that I will cut in half for the purpose of the pick 5. This one may be all about pace. You need to watch the replay of the 12/30 6.5F race that included Family Girl, Spend Spend Spend, and Uppercut (Oozle as well) as these three dueled at 21.3 and 44.2 fractions setting it up for the closers. In that race, #4 Uppercut was coming off a 7 month layoff (where Eurton does not have strong numbers) and got the worst of the pace scenario on the inside the whole time, including the turn and stretch. Eurton cannot be pleased with the same two horses again being outside today, which again could set up for an interesting and fast pace scenario. But, reading recent works, it appears Uppercut has been running in company and chasing Stakes types (Giant Expectations and Cheekaboo), wouldn’t be surprised if we see DVD try and stalk here today, and escaping another scenario of a pace duel from the inside is a must that I trust DVD to maneuver. I am expecting good improvement today. #6 Spend Spend Spend was the horse between in the duel and also did not get off well in the 12/30 race causing some energy to be spent to get him up to the pace. I like the jock change to Talamo who has ridden him before and has also worked Easy Grader, as Talamo had this one in stalk and pounce position. 3rd off the layoff and from the outside post, Joe will have options. #2 Oozle is a former Chad Brown horse before coming west to Mullins in the summer of last year. In her first start with Mullins she saw some play on the board and finished fourth (despite a bad start) ahead of the ML fav in here today, and behind three next out winners. Work out reports have been very encouraging with a “B” work on 1/19 with the last ¼ in 23.4 while earning the bullet. Effort on 12/30 (in the same race against 3 others in here) was flat, but a lot of positive signs here for this one to show up and come in at good value.
Trifecta: 4,6/2,4,6/1,2,4,6
Exacta: 4/ 2,6
Pegasus World Cup Turf: Bricks and Mortar, Channel Maker, Next Shares
Pegasus World Cup: Accelerate over Audible and Gunnevera