Today’s pick 5 at Santa Anita gets started early, with 11 races on the program. Love seeing that. I wish horse racing could be more consistent with start times, it would only help the sport, but I understand its also about beating sun-down as well. Anyways, today’s pick 5 sequence is composed of two 1 mile turf routes, two 5.5 furlong claiming dirt sprints and is capped off by the Grade 2 Las Virgenes, a $200k stakes race for 3 year old fillies on the KY Oaks trail. If Bellafina wins, this will play like a pick four, but I will have one horse on the ticket to beat Bellafina today as protection and hopefully key to a bigger payday. Best of luck to all that are playing today and those competing in the NHC.
Pick 5 Play: 1,2,6/ 1,2,5/ 2,6/2,3,6,7/2,3 ($72)
Race 1: (6-1-2) We open with a AOC $20k race at 1 mile on the turf that drew a field of 7. My top pick here is #6 Miss Voluptuous, a lightly ridden 4 year old filly who is fresh off breaking her maiden at Golden Gate in wire to wire fashion two weeks back. I went back and looked at this horses debut race at Del Mar in November, where she was a step slow getting out of the gate leaving her behind a wall of horses into the first turn, tossed her head in keen fashion and then got very slow fractions up front the whole way leaving little opportunity to close and blow by horses. Despite that, after Prat navigated her in the clear, she was moving well and picking up ground on everyone but the winner who drew away. I think the instructions will be clear today, break clean and get the horse to the lead, or sitting outside just off the pace leader. With only the #3 horse showing as a significant pace threat, this race looks to shape up perfectly for Rosario here. Lastly, horse is bred well for turf routes, as a full to Well Developed and Miss Well Molded who have 10 wins between them both show Thorograph figs of 6 or less, which would easily best this field.
#1 Halo Darlin is my second choice in here with Becerra going back to Tiago where they connected for a wire to wire win in the first race for this horse following being claimed for $25k in November. This will be the horses 3rd race in 30 days and even stretches out doing it, a possible sign of confidence in this horses fitness level. Becerra does put a tag on this horse today, which at first had me concerned, but after winning off the claim already, this would guarantee a profit for the connections. I mean, look at the move off the win, as the connections opted for a stakes race from a claiming 35k level. It did not pan out, and clearly was overmatched but gets right back to a familiar level here where she should be competitive.
#2 Moonshine Annie is the ML favorite but has not won a race since June of 2017 (0-10 since) and has been stuck at this N1X level. Drayden has improved the horse, where she has shown a good late foot in each of her last downhill races, albeit they were at very fast early fractions (43.3). Been teetering on whether or not use, as she is a bad favorite, but with my top 2 choices likely showing early speed I have decided to protect my ticket with some late kick. I will not be using #5 Radish, but interesting to note this horse should eclipse $200k in career earnings despite having never had won a race, 0-24 on the win end but 14 for 24 in the money.
Win Bet: #6 Miss Voluptuous
Race 2: (2-5-1) The first dirt race of the day is a 5.5F $35k claiming race that drew 6. Now the dirt track has been interesting the past couple of days. Thursday showed a speed bias with winners going gate to wire all day, and yesterday (and for much of the meet) the rail again was the place to be down the lane. I am still looking at early speed horses and those that have proven to duel and show gameness down the stretch. With that, this field can be cut in half.
Top pick is #2 Portal Creek, who has won 2 of her last 3 races, and the loss was due to a bad stumble at the start. Hanson had this horse going in the right direction on the fig side, but dropped him into his career low $20k claiming level on 12/30 and was scooped up by Bob Hess Jr. Hess is 22% off the claim with appositive ROI of $2.06 and calls on Rosario for this one, a big upgrade over Quinonez. Beyers may be a bit slower then a few others in here, but Thorograph has the top 3 contenders with the same fig. Expecting more improvement from this horse than the others, and like the stalk and pounce style.
#1 Bam Bams Lil River and #5 Hot Rod Girl get their rematch from when they had an exciting stretch duel in Los Al on 12/15 at the same distance. Both horses tried new ground next out with no success and now both return to the dirt and distance today. In watching the replay, Hot Rod Gal was in an all out duel on the front end at a 45 second half mile before shaking free and being met with the challenge Bam Bams Lil River in the stretch. When going into the stretch, Hot Rod Girl also had a bad drift out causing Pedroza to react and straighten her out. The trip was just easier for BBLR from the outside and off pace in this scenario, today on a the SA track, with Hot Rod Girl outside, advantage has to go to her. I’ll use them both, but if looking to narrow, play #5.
Win Bet: #2 Portal Creek Early Pick 4: 1,2,5/ ALL/ 7/ 2,3,4 (Pick 5 protection)
Race 3: ( 2-6 )Another 1 Mile Turf race here, where in this 9 horse field I see a lot of potential early speed that could set up well for stalkers.
#2 Tough it Out, put a line through the last race that was washed off turf, and take note of this being a 2nd off the claim angle for Sadler ($$). He has been running at the OC40K+ levels against salty competition, interesting to see the last 3 turf races the winners repeated next out. Prior to these, the horse was 4 out of 5 with wins, with the only loss due to a poor break and not finding room to run. Pace scenario sets up well here. I don’t love Brice Blanc off the pace (solid turf rider though) or the 0-15 with Sadler, but this trainer is strategic and must like something about this connection. Only horse in the race with over a 90 TimeForm US Late Speed figure (101) so if the pace scenario plays out to plan, should set up perfect for Tough It Out. Will play one other in here, that is likely to be on or near the lead, but I really like the improve Thorograph figs (has best recent figs of this bunch) and that is #6 Tiger Beach. Questions about the distance are obvious, but does get a weight break with Figueroa on board, and that connection with Morey has been a profitable one at 26% win rate and $2.62 ROI. Morey also showing profitable ROI on sprint to route moves. Pedigree is telling me distance will be an issue as the dam side is sprint heavy, but Morey has continued to make magic happen.
Win Bet: #2 Tough it Out
Race 4: (7-3-2-6) An interesting and competitive claiming race here, as it usually is at the N3X level. Plenty of speed evident here by 4 of the 7 horses with TimeForm US Early Speed figures of over 100. The strongest late figure is #6 Bucky’s Pick, by a 13 point margin, but expected as most of this horse’s career has been on Turf (0-3 on SA Dirt, albeit at classier levels). So as you can see, an interesting puzzle.
My top pick in here is #7 Royal Trump who will be running 2nd off the layoff. His 1/21 race (9 months off a layoff) was impressive, scoring a 86 Beyer (career best by 11 points). But then, is moved from the Sadler barn to O’Neill and now dropped in for a $35k tag after running strong in a 50k allowance? Without knowing details of the Sadler/O’Neil transaction we can only speculate, but my guess, like earlier, is that this would still be a profit should the horse get claimed and uniquely fits this N3X condition. O’Neil is $3.26 ROI on 2nd off the layoff. With a short field in the 5th, and a likely 1/5 faviorite, I also want to add some prices to this race that have a chance.
#2 Market Sentiment will be ridden by the red hot Aaron Gryder. Since being sent to Knapp in November, this horse has caught 2 sloppy tracks, a turf course for the first time, and one race of fast dirt at a slightly higher level. Speed is still there in the mornings, and any reversal back to his east coast form puts this horse right up there with this bunch at a price.
#3 Old Indian Trick for Slugo Racing is out of stakes winning sprinter Ms. Vanenzza. Carava and Tiago show a positive ROI as a connection and the effort at SA at this distance in September is the best Thorograph fig outside of Royal Trumps last effort.
#6 Buckys Pick, with Prat on board and the best late kick as further protection, as looking into pedigree, dirt should not be a concern and has two dirt races with figs that fit a winners profile here.
Race 5: (3-2-4) Bellafina will be a star, and like many at first glance this appears to be an easy single, a free square. But we have to look at the likely scenarios here. Mother Mother adds blinkers and has been showing off the early speed with them on during work outs. Now, this horse already had that early foot, so the blinks here are more to keep the focus when Bellafina is head and head with her. Mother Mother being on the outside is an advantage here and will be interesting to see how Bellafina reacts to a duel on the inside of horses. Or, Prat allows her to settle and looks to get outside position on the backstretch? Regardless, the blinks going on for MM and her position directly outside of her makes this a little more interesting. In case of a prolonged duel between these two, I will add Enaya Alrabb to the ticket as this horse is getting strong workout grades, has the best Late Timeform US Speed fig, and showed guts in her re-bid against American Pharoah’s little sister Chasing Yesterday. #3 Bellafina on top as the likely winner, but protecting with #2 Enaya Alrabb.