Happy Saturday as it looks like we will get a dry race day finally in Southern California. After the first three races yesterday having being won wire to wire, the track began to dry out and play fair the rest of the way, and I expect a fair track today..finally. Best of luck!!
Early Pick 5: (6/ 2,4,5,7/ ALL/ 5,6,7,8,10/ 4,5,6) $150
Race 1: (6-5-3-2) Top selection here is a potential single in #6 Flat Out Joy who makes career start number 2 out of the Flor de la Mar race (hyped 3 YO Filly). Filly bore out and swerved into the lane after dueling between two Baffert monsters most of the race. In reviewing workout notes, each of the last 2 works indicated “straight” into the lane and under wraps with this filly looking like she should improve here. Also like the outside post here as she has a good chance to clear and control the pace here today.
#5 Morning Cynn out of 2x winner Curlins Gold who was best in dirt sprints (a 5 TG fig) and sired by Paynter who has been a productive dirt sire fits well here on debut. Bejarano has been working the horse, so a little concerned he does not have this mount, but maybe Doug prefers the weight break here with the bug Jr. Diaz who has had some early success here and now debuts for O’Neil, a big barn that should have him plenty motivated. Had 3 consecutive gate works before a final 5F work under wraps.
#3 Hard Not to Love makes her debut today for the Sherriffs barn. This filly is a half to Wonder Gadot and Solemn Tribute, both stakes winning sibs. Sherriffs is not one to have a horse fully cranked first out, actually has not won on debut in years, but I really like the drill last week from the gate. #2 Over Emphasize comes back off a break where she was having a hard time showing improvement last fall. Looking at the races she has run, has been there against some good competition (Sparkyville, Mother Mother, Claudelle) and like that her workout reports are showing obvious improvement from her 2YO campaign. Concern here is McCarthy’s record off the layoff, where on 90+ days off is 7% and $0.49 on a $2 investment in his lifetime. May need this one.
Win Bet: #6 Flat Out
Trifecta: 6/ 2,3,5
Race 2: (5-4-2-7) An interesting second race with a group of 7 experienced filles and mares running in a starter allowance void of early speed. We also have a couple of horses running back on 1 weeks rest, and a third on less than 14 days. Hate to continue the chalk train here, but top pick has to be the horse showing the only signs of early speed in #5 Halo Darlin who gets Rosario on board for the first time. Last week, horse was my 2nd choice in the opener, but got an interesting ride by Tiago where he did not send out of the 1 hole, and ended up in a ground saving rail trip before being steadied and blocked in the lane. He had a ton of horse left, but no room and was never whipped. 3rd race in 4 weeks, but Pender must feel the horse is still fresh to run her right back off the claim in this allowance.
#4 Indypendent Duty for Dallas Keen is my second choice here as the Thorograph fig two back is best amongst this group recently, and looks to be the type who will like the added ground. An impressive work on 2/12 with a strong final ¼ clocking showing this one could be flying late, and this style fits Kent well. #2 Miss Boom Boom for Reed Saldana could also be a factor here. Look at Reed’s ROI numbers of late on Turf $4.40 and Routes $6.05. He claimed this horse from the Baltas Barn two back and has had a chance for Mario to work and race the horse, so here I would expect improvement.I need to spread in this race, with the higher degree of variance in Turf Routes, especially amongst older females. Adding the other Pender #7 Believe Indeed, who did not appear to like the soft turf last out, but figs fit here otherwise and the Bejarano/Pender connection is a strong one (23% $1.90).
(if miss race 1) Pick 4: 2,4,5,7/ ALL/ 5,7,10/ 4,5,6
Race 3: ALL. I can make an argument for all 5 in this race. Each have very different backgrounds and all drop into this claiming level from higher.
Race 4: ( 10-5-7-8-6) What a field here. Top pick is 8-1 ML #10 Harmon, the $500k 2YO purchase that has yet to impress in 4 career starts on dirt. Makes 1st appearance on Turf, and work notes suggest he should love the grass. Love the ROI angles too for Gallagher (1st time Turf $3.99, 1st Lasix 25% $3.77) and gets Mike Smith on board. Should also like the extra distance here.
Second pick is the Gronis/Sadler/Talamo connection of #5 Storms River. Last two has been closing late and willingly and has recently been working fast, with a 46 second ½ mile. Pedigree concerns me a bit on the extra distance, but cant ignore how this horse has looked and progressed in first 3 starts.
#7 Parsimony has the best thorograph fig of the bunch on turf and is one of the few in here with pedigree suggesting this distance can be had. Has been working well in the morning.
#8 Mo Mississippi continues to turn heads in the morning and now gets Rosario on board. We know Eurton is patient with his horses, but the horse was still well backed in each of the first two starts.
#6 Mutineer, a $200k purchase by Little Red Feather makes second turf start for D’Amato after a troubled trip last out. Could also be distance limited as both dam and sire side suggest 1M or less could be best fit, but D’Amato isn’t nicknamed “The Magician” for nothing.
Win/Place/Show: #10 Harmon
Exacta Box: 7,5,10
Daily Double: 10/ 4,5
Race 5: (5-4-6) Top pick in this MSW event is #5 Don’tteasethetiger for Brian Koriner. Koriner has put 3 of his last four debut winners in the winners circle and has been fantastic in spotting is horses. Strong morning works in each case being much the best over workmate. Dam won three of four races as well, all sprints, and Smiling Tiger (sire) also best with dirt sprints.
#4 Starring John Wain moves back to MSW after hitting the board in last 3 at claiming level. Last out, horse came out of the clouds and closed strong so the extra ½ furlong will only help here if there is pace to run at. Rosario back on board.
#6 Play Money comes into his debut well hyped as his morning workouts have been consistently impressive. Hoffmans has also saddled a couple first out winners this meet and teams up with Talamo ($2.20 ROI as cxn).
Win/Show: #5 Dontteasethetiger
Trifecta Box: 4,5,6
Tough going on the early pick 5 as my picks have a bad case of seconditis, but keep an eye on the debut winner from the first. Sherrifs’ rarely wins first out, and this sister of Wonder Gadot was much the best. Was really disappointed in Harmon’s effort today, but also impressed with Storm’s River. Lets turn this ship around on the back half of the card. Stay positive, stay patient in this game.
Late Pick 5: 3,4,8,9/5,6/7/1,2,3/1,8,13 ($36)
Race 6: (4-3-9-8) Should be no shortage of speed in this MSW 1M Turf event. None have routed on Turf yet in their early careers, and only one has routed at all. Here we need to look at a couple of things, pedigree for turf route, and for those that have ran, was there any indication of them wanting more ground. Pace will be a big factor, as I could see a number of them battling for the lead here. Top pick is #4 Unicorn who closed strong down the hill on debut, in what was a pretty good race of talent with a next out winner Apache Princess. I don’t love Tiago on turf routes, but I do love Baltas on sprint to route (18%, $2.61). #3 Holly Hundy will be first off the trainer change for Cerin (21% $2.44 angle) and will be running with Lasix for the first time. Lots of wins on his sibs side with some evidence of turf routing. Has been working great in the morning and running clear of some good horses with Franco on board, a major threat in here. 20-1 ML #9 Live the Moment is my next pick, also out of a strong race with Flor de la Mar this Godolphin filly should outrun these odds with ease on this added ground, as pedigree suggests Turf Routes is where she belongs. Harty not strong with first time starters so expect more on this second time out. #8 Posit was flying on turf debut at 43.1 ½ mile, but does have some nice routing pedigree. Also have really liked the Cairo Prince horses on turf. Will be interesting to see the tactics here as it will be up to Mario to get his horse to relax on the back stretch if out on the lead.
Race 7: (5-6) For a 6F dirt race, there is not much in terms of front end speed. That makes me really like #5 Gia Lula here, as it looks like she will be the clear speed and should have the ability to take this group wire to wire. Note Asa’s success on this horse, 4 starts with a win, two seconds, and a third. #6 Whirling will be the heavy favorite on the big drop here for Mandella. Is clearly the best in terms of both Beyers and TG figs, but what is going on with the multi level drop here. Recent work was low, but was well in hand. If Gia Lula ends up in a pace duel, Whirling could easily come off the pace and win this, even if not at her best.
Late Pick 4: 5,6/ 7,8,9/ 1,2,3/ 1,8,13 ($27) and ($2) 5/7/1,2,3/1,8,13 ($18)
Race 8: (7) Peter Miller enters two here and both are going to be tough. I had liked Compelled before being scratched, but this to me looks like it is # 7 Belvoir Bay’s race to lose. He has won the last 3 on this unique downhill turf course and does not need the lead to do it. #9 Painting Corners sizzled on this course through a 42.1 second ½ mile last time on this course, and will likely have the lead here today. With a little cut in this ground today, it is hard to win gate to wire, even on the downhill. I prefer those right off it, so will go with #7 as my single in this sequence.
Race 9: ( 2-3-1) Really bummed about the two scratches in here, as this field was, and still is, loaded. But we are down to a five horse field with Breeders Cup types. #1 Paradise Woods is looking fantastic off her layoff. She has filled out, has been working great for her new trainer (3 consecutive 6F works), and has been on her toes schooling. Would not be surprised in an impressive comeback here, as she can fire off the layoff. #2 Selcourt is fassst. Other than the poor start in her last, she has loved Santa Anita with figs as strong as #3 Marley’s Freedom. Marley has also been working great and should be right back to her old self here, where she looks to establish herself as the games top female sprinter. Would not be surprised with any of these three winning today, it will be all about who offers the best value.
Race 10: ( 8-1-13)Focus here goes to the two MSW to MCL droppers out of the 1/5 downhill turf race that produced 2 next out winners. #1 Kichiro for D’Amato and #8 Secret Courier for Koriner are both positive ROI on these types of drops. I like the blinkers being added to the 8 here as well. I will also add the AE #13 Railman here, as the outside is an advantage on the hill and was bet down to the faviorite when dropping to MDCLM last out on the soft turf. All three with encouraging recent works.