Opening Day at the Great Race Place. Lots of 5 ½ sprints on the turf, which leads to some wide open races. Keep an eye on the dirt and if closers (or even off the pace runners) have any shot. Santa Anita has played very speed favoring since Spring 2019, I’m anticipating that trend to continue.
Race 1
5 ½ Furlongs Turf Fillies and Mares 3+ Allowance Optional Claiming $62,500
- 5 Mischiffie – Out of a poor stakes race at Del Mar, 2 back ran at this same level at Santa Anita and won by ½ length. Morning Line suggests little value here, not quite willing to single in horizontal wagers, but a strong play without much value.
- 1 Watch Me Burn – Throw out the last time out over the dirt, getting back to the turf should put this one on the lead, with the conditioning should be able to hold on to a piece here, if not win outright.
- 6 Lucky Peridot – Ran well on the dirt at Del Mar last out, 2 previous at Del Mar in August after a long lay off put this horse in the mix for a nice run. Has lost to the 1&2 in the 2 previous turf sprints at Del Mar, the switch to Santa Anita, the inside draw makes this one live at a respectable morning line.
Race 2
6 Furlongs 3 year old Fillies Claiming $40k
- 5 Dehydration – Easy, but quick pace, lead to the ⅛ pole last out before getting run down by High on Gin (#3 in today’s race). This one has been claimed the last 2 out, shortening by ½ a furlong and moving a pace favoring track, I believe she turns the table on High on Gin and gets a gate to wire victory.
- 7 Munny – Throw out the last time out, 362 day lay off, on the turf, I’m assuming that was a prep to come back and start running again. Previously trained by Blaine Wright, moving from Emerald Downs to Southern California circuit, taking a step up even in this claiming race. Wright thought this filly had talent taking her from a maiden claiming to a stakes race as a 2 year old. Strong work outs 2 of the last 3, this one takes a step forward second out as a 3 year old, legit chance.
- 3 High on Gin – Can’t leave this very logical one off any horizontal tickets. 6/5 morning line likely gets under even money, 1 win this year in 6, facing a lower level. Has been a stakes show horse this year at a mile. I think the shorter is not better for this one, I won’t let this one knock me out of anything, but not a huge play for me.
Race 3
5 1/2 Furlongs Fillies and Mares 3+ Claiming $40k
- 2 Blackout – This is a straight pace play. This one should have a fairly easy lead, in a short turf race. This will be one I watch the closers closely, Santa Anita isn’t bringing back the 6 or 6 ½ furlong turf race until the Winter meeting. 3 closers in this race (2 good ones for the level; 7 Ultimate Bango or 9 Seven Scents) if they can’t close into this one it might be a sign to watch all weekend. With that said, not a ton of speed from the leader here, but has shortened to 5 furlongs the last 2, Saez back in CA, I’m putting some stock in this one. Will be considered a single in horizontals.
- 9 Seven Scents – Above this one I just said watch for closers, this is the one I’m most interested in. Won last time running this distance on this course, closed into a slow pace winning fairly easily. Has been claimed 2 of the last 3 races, If the morning line floats up, has real potential for me to put a win bet down.
- 8 About Our Time – Very weird spot for this one to show up. Claimed back in March, has been running in Texas/Oklahoma, shipped out to Santa Anita and put in a decent claiming race. This one’s best puts it in play, this is a bit of a “I don’t understand this move” play on my part, with not a lot of great options to choose from. Miguel Silva owns and trains this one, I’m always intrigued by this type of move, worth a shot, that I’m not playing heavily. More of a problem with the field than love for this one.
Race 4
1 Mile 3 year old Claiming $50k
- 2 Bronn – 2 back set an honest pace at Los Alamitos summer meet, got gobbled up by Cezanne (back when that was a good horse). Baffert brought this one back on the turf, ran terribly there. Back on the preferred surface, this one should set a slow though likely honest pace. Another “we’ll learn something from this race” last time we saw Santa Anita needed to be up near the lead. If Bronn runs a honest pace and holds off everyone, worth looking at that angle come the weekend.
- 7 The Stiff – This one broke slow last out at Del Mar, was 3 wide into the first turn, ran too fast down the back stretch and then went 4 wide on the far turn, lost all energy once they hit the top of the stretch. Shortening distance, moving to closer to the rail should give this one a shot, if the morning line floats up, a win bet may be good value.
- 4 Polar Wind – I’m only using this one in a horizontal if I’m singling (which I may do in Race 3) This is a straight defensive play for me, I don’t want to be live in a Pick 4 or 5 and have a 9/5 morning line knock me out. With that said, This one certainly seems to like shorter, beat my top choice last out, but with a much better trip. Was unable to make any sort of move down the stretch the 1/16 shorter will help, but I’m trying to beat this one on almost every ticket.
Race 5
5 ½ Furlongs Turf 3+ California Bred Fillies and Mares Maiden
- 1 Eddie’s Sister – This one showed good speed last time going a mile at Del Mar. Shortening up, from the rail gives this one a live shot at breaking her maiden.
- 3 Three Dreams – First time starter has been consistently working at Los Alamitos since March. Putting this on one the turf at Santa Anita makes this one interesting at a huge number in a wide open race.
- Wide Open, with enough first time starters, career maidens and weird spots to be placing runners, I’d use the 9 Cassie Belle and 10 Va Va Voom in horizontals because I don’t want to lose a Pick 4 or 5 not taking those two, but a wide net is needed here in my opinion.
Race 6
6 ½ Furlongs Fillies and Mares 3+ Chillingworth Stakes (G3)
- 1 Message – Coming out of a dead head win at Del Mar in the Tranquility Lake Stakes. Slight step up, while shortening to 6 ½ I expect to see this mare sitting right behind a slow pace, make the first move and catch the leader at the 1/16 pole.Playing the other Baffert, is never a bad play at Santa Anita.
- 5 Hang a Star – Moving back to 6 ½ is likely this mare’s preferred distance. Looking back at the Desert Stormer (May 17) ran a good 2nd to Bellafina. May not get the pace to close into, but if it’s as slow as I predict, she may be close to the leader turning for home.
- 2 Qahira – Baffert trainee moving from 3 consecutive Allowance victories, into stakes company, I don’t expect any value whatsoever here. Qahira should have an easy lead, there is no reason to doubt she can’t take this one gate to wire, but I expect ⅘ or so and will fade on the win side, but won’t let her beat me out of any horizontals.
Race 7
5 ½ Furlongs Turf 3+ Eddie D Stakes (G2)
- 2 Give me the Lute – Coming out of two wins going 5 furlongs at Golden Gate Fields, he’s taking a big step up in class. My thought process is the 3 Mr Vargas and the 1 Wildman Jack are going to be sent flying at the start. Give Me the Lute sits behind a blistering pace, makes his move at the top of the stretch and has a legitimate shot at this race.
- 1 Wildman Jack – Scratch his last two races (1 on the dirt, the other at Keenland) and this is the deserving favorite. This level should be right up his alley, I’m taking a small shot against but Wildman Jack is the most likely winner.
- 7 Big Runnuer – 2 straight wins at Santa Anita after taking the summer off. If he can run back to his previous 2 he fits nicely in this one.
Race 8
6 Furlongs 3+ Claiming $25k
- 8 Big Cheddar – Broke it’s maiden on thirt in claiming ranks going 6 ½ Claimed out of that race moved to the turf and failed miserably on the turf. Moving back to the dirt in this wide open sprint. I’m assuming a fast pace and this one to get back to sitting right off and making a move. This is more of a price play then a strong feeling, I wouldn’t play too hard on this one to win.
- 4 Press Briefing – Yes another 20/1 shot, this is a wide open race in my eyes. Same basic setup here as above, fast pace, sitting off. Last time out sat a nice forward trip and caught in a closer favoring track. Getting back to Santa Anita and a more speed favoring, hoping for a big speed duel with 2 or 3 horses giving horses sitting right off a shot.
- 1 Nesbitt – A little more of a closer, getting another shot on the dirt, had a nice race last out, going 6 on the Del Mar dirt. A little deeper around the turn a perfect rail trip and hope to catch some tiring horses down the stretch.
I’m going deep in my horizontals on this one
Race 9
1 mile Turf Fillies and Mares 3+ Allowance Optional Claimer $25k
Start of the Golden Hour Pick 4 ($1 minimum 15% takeout)
- 4 Nice Ice – Claimed the last two races, this one should love thh distance and the easy lead she should get here. I see very little speed and if the morning line floats up a win bet makes sense for me.
- 6 Awesome Drive – Coming off back to back wins at Del Mar in the claiming ranks, Rispoli back up going a mile, if this one can catch any sort of pace up front, should get first run and if the last two races hold a real shot at the win.
- 3 Kitty Boom Boom – Moving out of the CA Stakes , where she appeared to be over her head, the move back to Allowance company makes this one a deserving morning line favorite 2nd off the layoff with Cedillo aboard.
Race 10
6 Furlongs Fillies and Mare 3+ Maiden Claiming $20k
This is the race that is wide open that I’m taking a stand in.
- 14 Scream and Shout – Throwing out her last race over the turf and trying to forget 2 back at Los Alamitos (weird track, favored closers while she ran a fast ½) Out of her debut race numerous horses have come back to win and win some good races. She ran ok back in June, the race somehow seems to shape up for her to walk on an early easy lead and take off at the top of the stretch. Might not be enough value for a win bet but I’m leaning heavily on this one in horizontal wagers.
- 13 Into Victory – Not my favorite strategy taking 2 short prices in a wide open maiden claiming race, but this one has been claimed in back to back races, moving into the Robert Hess barn, picking up Juan Hernandez, getting shorter while keeping the same class level I think may hit this one right between the eyes.
- 4 Mountain Pass – The move from a mile to 6 furlongs gives a small glimmer of hope for this one. Strictly an underneath play for me, may help the Trifecta.
I’m going to play a few tickets on Opening Day:
Early Pick 5: $54 Early Pick 4: $36
R1 – 5/2
R2 – 5/7/3 R2: 5/7/3
R3 – 2/9 R3: 2/9/8
R4 – 2/7/4 R4: 2
R5 – 1/9/10 R5: 1/3/9/10
Late Pick 5: $54 Late Pick 4: $24
R6: 1/5/2
R7: 2/1 R7: 2/1/7
R8: 8/4/1/7/3/12 R8: 8/4/1/7
R9: 4/6/3 R9: 4/6
R10: 14 R10: 14/13
Golden Hour Late Pick 4 (Race 9&10 Santa Anita, Race 8&9 Golden Gate Fields)
$1 minimum 15% takeout this will be one of the better wagers for the late afternoon this season (Not a huge play for me today as I don’t see a lot of value in it, specifically if I hit it with my top choices it’s not paying a lot, for it to pay big I wouldn’t be getting to the winners)
Leg A (R9 Santa Anita) – 4/6
Leg B (R8 Golden Gate) – 4/5
Leg C (R10 Santa Anita) – 14
Leg D (R9 Golden Gate) – 9
Golden Hour Double $5 minimum
Leg A (Race 10 Santa Anita) 14/13
Leb B (Race 9 Golden Gate) 9/3