Welcome back to Santa Anita! We decided to switch the schedule up a bit, so I am covering Friday this week rather than Sunday. Last week the article did not make it onto the site in time; perhaps that was fortuitous given the results would not have been kind to anyone playing along at home. This is the final Friday before Breeder’s Cup, and you can feel the excitement starting to build all over horse racing social media! Let’s build a little bankroll today for the big weekend coming up!
2019 Fall Santa Anita Statistics
Last Week: NA
Santa Anita Fall 2019: 31% (5/16 win, 8/16 ITM), $1.53 ROI per $2 win bet ($48 wagered, $36.80 returned)
Race 1: Clm 25000 1 Mile
Picks: 2-5-3-1
Today begins with a straight claiming race for a group of 5. #2 Kylemore is the top selection. This 4-year-old gelding was keeping strong company throughout his entire 3-year-old campaign until he was finally dropped in for a tag last out at Del Mar. He won like a 3/2 favorite should, taking them gate to wire, and he projects to be the controlling speed in this affair as well. Goes out first time for the Hanson barn, who already has 2 winners from 5 starters this meet. He should be the one to catch, and it seems likely he takes them all the way. #5 Cabin John is the main threat to Kylemore, both from a pace and talent standpoint. While he may not be quite as quick as Kylemore from the gate, he still has ample speed and should take up a good pressing position from the outset. There is probably less separating the top 2 choices than the morning line would indicate, so there could be some value on Cabin John if Kylemore starts approaching even-money territory. #3 Dukes Up is the wildcard. He owns plenty of speed figures that make him competitive here, and he has some of the best connections in the race as he comes second off the layoff. His main disadvantage is his lack of early speed in a short field without much other pace. If Cedillo can keep him within striking distance he could prove dangerous, especially if the top 2 hook up on the lead.
Race 2: [S][F] Mdn 50k 5½ Furlongs (T)
Picks: 4-6-1-2
#4 Sofi’s Gold flashed good speed in both of her starts to date on dirt but faded late. I’m wondering if the switch to grass doesn’t have more to do with a distance issue than a surface issue? She ran well at 6 furlongs, only getting nailed late, but she tired badly going 6.5f next out with a big regression as the odds-on favorite. Goldencents offspring win at 11% first time on turf, and Gaines is very strong with the move hitting at 22% with a $4.21 ROI. The cutback to 5.5f coupled with her dangerous early speed should be just what the doctor ordered to get this one to the winner’s circle. #6 Flying Business was an okay fourth in her debut at Del Mar. Switches to turf, which I think was always going to be her preferred surface. She is by Gervinho, with Unusual Heat as a grandsire, and she is a half sibling to turf stakes placed Streak of Luck, so she should have no problem taking to the grass. Might wake up on the surface switch. #1 Elgofranco is by always-dangerous California turf sire Square Eddie. Loads of turf pedigree for this one, and Cecil has won his lone start at SA this meet. Morning works are on the slower side lately, but have to like the spacing of the drills.
Race 3: [F]MC 50000 6½ Furlongs
Picks: 3-5-6-2
Race 3 does not provide many ways to find a standout, as almost all entered are dropping in class after being completely outmatched against maiden special weight company. I’m going back to the well and landing on #3 Golden Melodie. These dirt sprints have been dominated by horses on or near the lead, and Golden Melodie has never been more than a length off the pace in her 3 career starts. She drops in class, and in her debut for 80k she ran a respectable third. Have to think she has improved since then, and I like her to make the lead and take this group all the way. #5 Miss Kitness never picked up her feet in her debut; Ruis adds Lasix and drops her for a tag here, both strong moves for this barn. I’m banking on the fact that first race gave her some much-needed experience, and juveniles are often prone to huge improvements second time out. #6 Tacocat has not displayed much of an ability to pass other horses, and that could end up proving troublesome as it is unlikely that she has the gate speed to make the lead while cutting back from a route. Perhaps those longer races built up some conditioning, and she does figure to be the one to benefit if Golden Melodie does not get the distance. Tough to love as a morning line favorite.
Race 4: [S]OC 16000n1x 5½ Furlongs (T)
Picks: 4-7-6-5
#4 Zipper Mischief has clearly proven himself best when going around 1 turn, and should love seeing sprinting again here after his route try last time where he set a fast pace and tired late. He has the speed to make the lead but is not a need-the-lead type, and he just missed at a level slightly tougher than this 2 starts back. He is not a huge standout on figures alone, but I expect this lightly raced colt to continue improving especially on a return to a sprint distance. #7 Prayer Warrior is an intriguing long shot. While it may be fair to question the quality of fields he’s beaten lately, he has still posted competitive speed figures, although on dirt and not turf. He was a good second at Golden Gate back in August, and typically if one handles synthetic surface they have a good chance to perform well on turf. Ministers Wild Cat get’s 12% turf winners, and this one does have the tactical speed to be dangerous. Interesting. #6 Appreciated may not have ran fast enough to win this in the past, but he is now making his first start as a gelding and adds blinkers while also cutting back to a sprint. He should have a conditioning edge on a few of these, and he clearly likes the turf at Santa Anita with a record of 3-1-1-0. He does not have an explosive turn of foot, so needs to be closer to the pace and see if he can wear down the leaders late.
Race 5: MC 30000 6 Furlongs
Picks: 5-4-2-8
A tough race to handicap awaits in race 5, full of uninspiring maiden claimers and debut runners. I hesitantly landed on #5 I Dub Thee as the top choice. This horse was off slow from the rail and never a threat in his debut. It’s always difficult to debut a young immature horse from the one hole, and when this one didn’t break well he immediately was shuffled to the back and discouraged. In his next start, he had the opposite fate when stuck to the extreme outside. This time he did break well and contested the pace for 2 furlongs while 4 wide, ultimately tiring and weakening. He now gets a much-needed class drop, and I am always interested in a horse who was able to flash speed against better company now going against a rather weak bunch. The latest work was wrong, and Franco and Sherlock do well when pairing up. #4 Daring Ways may ultimately go off as the longest shot on the board, but I’m not overlooking this one. This horse has not shown much ability when in against much better company in his last 2 starts, but now gets massive class relief. Jorbe Periban is an absurd 45% (5/11) when dropping a horse from maiden special to maiden claiming with a $4.56 ROI. There isn’t much else to like, but in what is a pretty awful field I wouldn’t overlook those kind of stats on a horse who will be a massive price. #2 Nonnos Polaris is arguably the most interesting of the first-time starters, but truly doesn’t appear to be anything special. Interesting that Bejarano takes the mount, especially considering there are 2 Palma horses entered here. Perhaps one of the two are live?
Race 6: Clm 50000 11/8 Mile (T)
Picks: 6-2-1-5
#6 Swamp Souffle is the top pick. This colt has been running respectably while facing tougher company and now gets dropped in class. There isn’t a lot of other speed in this field, so I want to focus on a horse who can be forwardly placed. He clearly needed the race 2 back when coming off a layoff on the dirt, then improved significantly when running an okay speed figure in defeat last out. I think this 3-year-old takes another step forward third off the layoff and could prove dangerous if he can get the distance. #2 Volubile is already proven at the distance, a huge positive that cannot be overstated in a field where many are unproven or untested at 9 furlongs. He clearly had some issues early in his career, but seems to have worked out the kinks and improved quite a bit since the stretch out. #1 Of Good Report was very impressive when coming from a few lengths off when rallying into a slow pace against weaker foes last out. Now goes out for Cerin, who hits at a solid 30% first off the claim. Encouraging to see Cerin moves the horse up in class after the claim even after waiting nearly 2 months. Legit contender.
Race 7: [F] OC62500n2x 6 furlongs
Picks: 5-2-1-4
#5 Anuket looked outstanding when demolishing an overmatched field last out, making that 5/2 price feel like stealing money. Don’t imagine we get anywhere near that price today. She is likely to improve second off the layoff, although it is a bit curious that Baffert spots here in a soft race like this when there are other stakes races that she seems she could be competitive in. The main pick at a short price. #2 Show it and Moe it has tailed off form after some promising races early this year. Perhaps the graded stakes waters were a little too deep for this miss. That optional claiming race 2 back was deceptively strong, as the winner Qahira is a Baffert horse with high expectations and the second-place horse Mo See Cal came back to win in another optional claiming race and is Breeders Cup bound. If a pace battle develops between a few of today’s contenders, which seems possibly if not likely, Show it and Moe it figures most logical to benefit. It’s no secret what the game plan for #1 Love a Honeybadger will be after drawing the rail – send hard and take them as far as you can as fast as you can. Mare certainly has early speed and has been better since going to the Miller barn, but she does appear better going slightly shorter. Know her early and see if she can hang on for a piece.
Race 8: MC 20000 61/2 furlongs
Picks: 10-7-6-5
#10 Norski has certainly had his share of chances yet remains a maiden after 9 starts. Drops way down to the lowest level of his career and adds blinkers. One-run type needs to find a way to get involved earlier, so maybe the hood going on makes him show a bit more early foot. He’s faced some good horses in a few of his starts, and he ran into a horse who got loose on the lead in Gate Speed last out. He appears to have finally found a soft enough field to take advantage of, but the price won’t be pretty and it’s tough to feel great about using a horse who has blown as many chances as he has so far. #7 Dubnation is the main threat to Norski. He wasn’t particularly impressive last out, but that was his first start off a lengthy layoff so easy to forgive that effort. Strong chance Velez gets this one to make the lead, and if he gets clear by a length or so he may prove too tough to catch for this mediocre bunch. Note that D’Amato is 46% when dropping 2+ classes, but he does move from statebred to open company here so mixed signals. In a field full of horses who have had their fair share of chances to break their maiden and failed, I’ll take a look at #6 Gold N Grand as the lone first-time starter. Pedigree has more of a 2-turns on turf vibe, but these connections are capable of having one ready at first asking. One to consider on top amongst a field of horses who have proven content to settle for minor awards.