Race of the Week Preview: Rebel
Saturday March 16th: Race 8 at Oaklawn Park. The $750,000 Grade 2 Rebel Stakes run at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for three year olds. (Post Time: 5:57 PM EDT).
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
Inaugurated back in 1961, the Rebel Stakes was originally run as a Handicap; however, it is better known as being one of the key prep races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby for three year olds. Since its inauguration it has been run at its current distance of eight and a half furlongs. Jockey Mike Smith has won the Rebel a record four times with his first win coming back in 1986 whilst his most recent victory (and actually only one in this century) came in 2014 aboard Hoppertunity. Trainer Bob Baffert currently holds the record for most wins in this race with six and in fact all those wins have come since 2010 with his most recent winner being Cupid back in 2016. Three horses that won the Rebel- Sunny’s Halo (1983), Smarty Jones (2004), and American Pharoah (2015)- have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby while only American Pharoah has completed the ultimate test of champions by winning the Triple Crown (in fact American Pharoah made his three year old debut in the Rebel). The Rebel Stakes was originally intended to have a purse of $1 Million available this year and initially had offered 50-20-10-5 Kentucky Derby points to the top four finishers in the race. However, due to the current issues surrounding the track surfaces at Santa Anita and the decision to cancel its major prep race, the San Felipe (G2) that was scheduled to be run last weekend, Oaklawn Park stepped up and offered to host two divisions of the Rebel. A total of 19 horses have signed on to contest this year’s edition of the Rebel (9 runners in the 1st Division and 10 runners in the 2nd Division) and although the overall purse was increased to $1.5 Million that amount will be split equally between the two divisions. Additionally, the total amount of Kentucky Derby points for each race will be awarded at 75% of their initial value (37.5-15-7.5-3.75) instead. So without further ado, let’s dive on in and preview the first of the two Rebel Divisions (the “Improbable Division”).
1. Extra Hope: [Shanghai Bobby-Tiznow; Richard Mandella/Mike Smith; 6-1; 7-2-1-2]
One of a multitude of West Coast shippers that is taking advantage of Oaklawn Park’s generosity in light of the troubles plaguing Santa Anita Park, Extra Hope comes into this race following a solid win against $80K Optional Claimers at the end of January over a sloppy one mile at Santa Anita. In that effort he earned a career best 114 TimeForm speed rating which should make him competitive against this assembled field. However, questions linger about whether or not that performance was due to the track conditions which Extra Hope obviously relished as previously he was a distant third to both Improbable and Mucho Gusto in the Los Alamitos Futurity run last December over eight and a half furlongs. This colt does have good early speed and with an advantageous rail draw, he will likely be sent from the get go by Smith who rides Extra Hope for the first time on Saturday. There is an abundance of speed entered into this field though and Extra Hope’s more recent efforts over fast dry tracks do not suggest that he can compete with some of the bigger names in this field especially if he gets into a speed duel on the front end or encounters a particularly fast initial pace. USE UNDERNEATH ONLY
2. Long Range Toddy: [Take Charge Indy-Unbridled’s Song; Steve Asmussen/Jon Court; 10-1; 6-3-1-1]
One of six runners that Asmussen has entered into the two divisions of the Rebel, Long Range Toddy is arguably one of the most talented colts in the Asmussen barn. After capping of a two year old campaign with a win in the $400K Springboard Mile Stakes (Listed) at Remington Park in late December, Long Range Toddy has since come back to run a respectable second in the $150K Smarty Jones Stakes (Listed) and then third in the Southwest Stakes (G3) both here at Oaklawn Park. The 110 and 109 TimeForm speed ratings that he earned in those performances are respectable but they are still a tad slow when compared to some of his peers in this field. However, this colt does have good early speed and as Court (who is known for being a fairly aggressive rider) draws the mount for Saturday, expect him to have Long Range Toddy forwardly placed immediately after breaking from the gates. If this colt can continue to improve going forward and outlast his rivals whilst contesting a swift pace up front, then he definitely has the chance to score a major upset in this race over some of the more-heralded West Coast shippers. LIVE LONGSHOT
3. Corruze: [Into Mischief-Skywalker; Chris Hartman/Stewart Elliott; 30-1; 4-2-0-0]
It is not really apparent if dirt is this colt’s best surface as at this point in his career, three of his four lifetime starts have come on the grass and he has never raced beyond six and a half furlongs on the dirt. Corruze appears to be seriously outclassed in this field as he has yet to even contest a graded stakes race and his best speed figure (on any surface) was a 94 TimeForm speed rating that he earned when sprinting five and a half furlongs over the turf at Fair Grounds at the beginning of the year. TOSS
4. Easy Shot: [Trappe Shot-Scat Daddy; Keith Desormeaux/Richard Eramia; 15-1; 6-1-1-1]
Thus far Easy Shot has been unable to compete with his fellow West Coast three year olds and even after shipping to Arkansas he is unable to avoid racing against some of them. His best finish this year has come in the Robert B Lewis Stakes (G3) run over a sloppy eight and a half furlongs at Santa Anita when he finished third behind Mucho Gusto and Gunmetal Gray. The 107 TimeForm speed rating he earned for that performance pales in comparison to some of the other runners in this field. Although he has been working consistently over the training track at San Luis Rey for Desormeaux and his pace-stalking running style should be of great benefit in this race as the pace is expected to be quite fast early on, Easy Shot would need to take a major step forward and greatly improve in order to be competitive in this race. TOSS
5. Proud Nation: [Tapit-Unbridled’s Song; Joe Sharp/David Cabrera; 50-1; 3-0-1-0]
There honestly is no reason why this colt should even be in this field on Saturday. Through three career starts he has yet to break his maiden and in his most recent effort against $93K Maidens, he ran ninth beaten by 40 lengths. He does possess some early speed and may play a role in helping either dictate or press the pace at least for the first half of the race. But simply put, he does not belong in this race. TOSS
6. Ninth Street: [Street Boss-Mizzen Mast; Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr; 50-1; 8-2-2-1]
The other Asmussen runner in this field, Ninth Street was last seen finishing ninth in last month’s Southwest Stakes. The best speed figure that he has ever earned came when sprinting seven and a half furlongs in a $75K listed stakes race at Delta Downs in January when he earned a 101 TimeForm speed rating. Ninth Street figures to be at the tail-end of the field early on as his primary running style is that of a closer. Although he will likely encounter an ideal pace setup in this race, as the TimeForm Pace Projector has indicated a fast initial pace for the race, Ninth Street appears to be a bit overmatched in this field. Additionally, his best efforts have come when sprinting and as such the eight and a half furlong distance of the Rebel might just be a bit too far for his abilities. TOSS
7. Classy John: [Songandaprayer-Old Forester; Dallas Stewart/David Cohen; 15-1; 5-3-2-0]
This colt has blistering early speed as four of his first five efforts have come when sprinting six and seven furlongs. As such it is quite likely that Classy John will be sent to the front from the get go and attempt to dictate the early fractions. The 106 TimeForm speed rating he earned in his only attempt at a route in a one mile $100K state-bred restricted stakes at Delta Downs came over a slow track but still is fairly slow when compared to the recent speed figures for some of his rivals. It is not apparent if Classy John can handle the stretchout to eight and a half furlongs on Saturday but if this colt gets it in his head and attempts to wire the field, he could very well do so if none of the other projected early speed runners go with him. However, that scenario is fairly unlikely and it is much more possible that Classy John ends up succumbing to a blistering pace on the front end and gradually fades down the stretch such that he has to settle for a minor award. USE UNDERNEATH ONLY
8. Galilean: [Uncle Mo-El Prado; Jerry Hollendorfer/Flavien Prat; 3-1; 4-3-1-0]
Saturday marks a slight step up in class for this very talented colt as all of his most recent efforts have come racing in stakes restricted to California-bred horses. However, his most recent effort in the $200K Cal Cup Derby over eight and a half furlongs at Santa Anita last month was quite impressive. He pressed the pace initially, made a three wide bid for the lead going into the final turn, took control of the lead in the stretch and after drifting a bit, was ridden out and eventually won by four and a half lengths. The 109 TimeForm speed rating he earned for that effort is solid but it did come over a track with a noticeable speed bias and Galilean will certainly have to improve on Saturday in order to have a chance at scoring a mild upset. His running style appears to be that of a pace-setter/pace-presser and as such it would be no surprise to see him either on the lead in this race or rating just off of the initial fractions being set by his rivals (especially the horses on either side of him) before trying to strike for the front as the field turns for home. Galilean has had some solid works for Hollendorfer leading up to this race and appears to be in fine form at the moment. Of all the runners in this field, he appears the most likely to be able to seize a victory from the Baffert trainee Improbable should that colt not fire on Saturday following a three month layoff. WIN CONTENDER
9. Improbable: [City Zip-A.P. Indy; Bob Baffert/Drayden Van Dyke; 3/5; 3-3-0-0]
Arguably one of the most talked about two year olds of 2018, the Baffert trainee has not been seen since an impressive five length victory over stablemate Mucho Gusto in the Los Alamitos Futurity last December. In that effort he earned a scintillating 118 TimeForm speed rating which towers over the rest of the field. Thus far in three career efforts, he has displayed excellent pace-stalking abilities and therefore it would be likely to see Van Dyke employ similar tactics once again, given the abundance of speed drawn just to his inside. Since the beginning of February this colt has been working out incredibly well for Baffert, turning in a number of bullet works, and by all accounts he appears to be in quite good form. Now the major question is whether or not he will be ready to fire on Saturday following a 98 day layoff. Baffert has done quite well in the past in this race and while it would be no surprise to see this colt just dominate this field, given the quality of some of the rivals entered into this race and the fact that Improbable’s Morning Line odds are 3/5, it might be best to use this him for defensive purposes only, especially in multi-race wagers. WIN CONTENDER