Race of the Week: Hal’s Hope
Saturday February 23rd: Race 11 at Gulfstream Park. The $100,000 Grade 3 Hal’s Hope Stakes run at one mile on the dirt for four year olds and upward. (Post Time: 4:58 PM EDT).
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
Selections: 3-7-2
(3) Breaking Lucky: The barn of trainer George Weaver sends out this son of Lookin At Lucky hoping to build upon his most recent effort, a solid second place finish last month in the Fred W Hooper Stakes (G3) here at Gulfstream Park. In that race, which was run over a sloppy one-turn mile, despite breaking well from the gates, Breaking Lucky really was unable to gain much momentum over the wet surface and in fact going into the final turn was even taken back by his jockey, Luis Saez. He was in good position as the field turned into the stretch but still had to grind it out to get second and it is perhaps through class alone that he was able to accomplish this. The horse that beat him that day was Aztec Sense, who had won his last eight races in a row and is turning into a solid contender for trainer Jorge Navarro. For his efforts churning through the slop back in January, Breaking Lucky earned a 93 Bris Speed Rating (BSR) while TimeForm US awarded him a 117 speed figure for that performance. Now both of those speed figures are actually slight regressions from the 101 BSR and 120 TimeForm rating that he had earned in the start before last: a solid eight and a quarter length victory at Gulfstream Park when contesting a one-turn mile against $62.5K Optional Claimers. If Breaking Lucky can return to those figures today, he will be exceptionally dangerous against this relatively weak field, especially considering the track will be dry this time. There is a question as to whether a mile is truly Breaking Lucky’s best distance as this horse did enjoy some modest success when routing at longer distances when previously trained by Reade Baker. However, he has finished in the exacta now in two of his three attempts at a mile and appears to be developing an affinity for Gulfstream as he has now hit the board in his last two starts there after previously finishing out of the money in his first two races at the track.
Breaking Lucky’s running style is a bit versatile as while he has primarily displayed an affinity for running as a pace-stalker, he can be a bit more forwardly placed and can press the pace as well. The field that has been assembled for this year’s edition of the Hal’s Hope is not particularly robust as there are a number of runners entered into it coming in off of long layoffs (250 days or more). This is notable as the rest of the projected speed in this race is drawn to Breaking Lucky’s outside including Quip and Prince Lucky both of whom figure to be involved in either dictating or pressing the pace early on, depending upon if they’re ready to fire after that long time away from the track. Now while the TimeForm Pace Projector has indicated that it is possible that Breaking Lucky will be out on the initial lead contesting the pace with Wild Shot, it actually appears that pilot Luis Saez has two options in this race as to how exactly he wants to position his charge early on. He can either blast out of the gates and begin to dictate the pace of the race from the get go or as the two runners drawn to Breaking Lucky’s inside are much slower (at least in terms of early speed figures), he could tuck in along the rail, save ground, and stalk the initial pace-setters whilst allowing a runner like Copper Town to do all the heavy lifting in the race. Although Saez is known for being a fairly aggressive rider and will likely want Breaking Lucky to be forwardly placed, it may behoove him to take back a bit after the start and rate instead of trying to outlast Copper Town in a speed duel on the front end. Thus should Copper Town or any of the other front-runners with suspect lasting ability begin to falter before turning for home, Saez should have Breaking Lucky in an ideal position to be able to move up and seize control of the race such that he can emerge victorious at the wire. Over the past three years, Weaver has been putting up solid numbers both when racing his trainees at route distances (14% win rate) and when running them on the dirt (17% win rate). Additionally, today will be the fourth start that Saez has had aboard Breaking Lucky and thus far he has hit the board in all three prior efforts. Moreover, Saez has been having an excellent meet at Gulfstream (21% win rate from 399 starts) and over the past year has been riding quite well in route races as he has been winning at a 20% clip. By all accounts, Breaking Lucky appears to be the one to beat in this race but just be aware that as his Morning Line odds are 2-1 and likely to dip even lower by post time, so he does not offer much value in this race and must be used for defensive purposes only in all wagers.
(7) Copper Town: One of two entrants in this field for trainer Todd Pletcher, the term that might best describe this son of Speightstown would be vexing. He began his career in brilliant fashion, breaking his maiden at second asking back in September of 2017 at Belmont Park beating Backyard Heaven by nearly four lengths. He then followed up that impressive score with a more spectacular feat in which he bested Patternrecognition by over six lengths in a $77K Allowance race the following month at Belmont as well. In both those gate to wire efforts he earned 101 BSRs. But then he was laid up with a series of injuries and it was not until October of 2018 that he finally made his return to the track and when he did so he again looked fantastic as he took down a field of $62.5K Optional Claimers sprinting six and a half furlongs at Keeneland and bested his rivals by five lengths. He unfortunately followed that performance up with a poor showing in the Cigar Mile Handicap (G1) at Aqueduct the following month in which he finished eighth behind old foe Patternrecognition after having been bumped and then steadied at the start. In his most recent effort, which came in last month’s Fred W Hooper Stakes, he was incredibly fractious at the gates, quite possibly due to the sloppiness of the track, (which is somewhat odd given his pedigree) and basically took himself out of contention from the get go such that he finished in seventh, fourteen lengths behind Aztec Sense. Now the question has arisen: does Copper Town want to run anymore or is he simply the victim of unfortunate circumstances in each of his last two races? Given the fact that the track should be fast and dry today at Gulfstream and if he can remember what he’s supposed to do when breaking from the gates, Copper Town could be a major contender in this race, if he can regain that fantastic form he displayed back in 2017.
Copper Town’s running style is that of a pace-setter (provided he breaks well from the gates) and throughout the course of his career, he has shown very good early speed. His best performances over the course of his six lifetime starts have come when he has been on the initial lead and thus in order for him to have any chance in this race, he needs to be sent from the get go. Now there are several other runners in this field that may have similar intentions on being forwardly placed and possibly contesting the early fractions, most notably Breaking Lucky and Wild Shot. Thus it is entirely possible that Copper Town could find himself embroiled in a speed duel or at the very least facing heavy pressure immediately upon breaking from the gates. Therefore it is going to be key that jockey Javier Castellano keep Copper Town in a good position throughout the race and not allow him to expend any more speed or stamina than is necessary such that Copper Town still has enough left in the tank to be able to repel any challengers as the field enters the stretch. It appears that Copper Town has been training well for Pletcher since that most recent effort and over the past three years Pletcher has generally done well with runners contesting route races as he has been winning at a 22% clip from 2941 starts. Additionally, it is always encouraging to see the veteran Castellano aboard as this will be his sixth start in seven races whilst in the irons of Copper Town. Over the past year Castellano has been riding fairly well in route races having won 21% of his last 222 starts. Thus if Copper Town can somehow find a way to return to that 2017 form and those speed figures that he was putting up at the time, he could be exceptionally dangerous in this spot, especially if he is still on the lead as the field turns for home. If Copper Town remains near his 6-1 Morning Line odds, then he certainly offers decent value in this race and must be used in all positions in exotic and multi-race wagers.
(2) Fellowship: Trainer Kenneth Decker sends out this six year old son of Awesome of Course looking to build upon a solid start to 2019 after finishing third last month in the Fred W Hooper Stakes behind Aztec Sense and Breaking Lucky. In that race, Fellowship sat back early on, gradually moved up such that the leaders were in his sights at the quarter pole and made a determined drive down the stretch but was just edged out for second by Breaking Lucky. For his efforts, Fellowship earned a 92 BSR and was awarded a 117 speed figure by TimeForm US. Going forward, if he can continue to improve upon those numbers he should be a contender in this race squaring off against a field that is somewhat weak. Although Fellowship has yet to win at today’s one mile distance (he has finished in the money just twice in six tries), he does seem to have a particular affinity for the surface at Gulfstream as he has hit the board in seven of his ten lifetime starts here. Furthermore, he is a horse that always gives a good effort in each and every race and the one-turn configuration of races seems to be to his liking, although he may prefer to go a bit shorter than a mile. However, there is one major factor that will be working in Fellowship’s favor today that no other runner in this field possesses and that is the jockey that is in the irons, Irad Ortiz Jr (but more on him later).
Throughout the course of his career, Fellowship’s primary running style is that of a mid-pack stalker. On a whole, his early, mid and late speed figures, according to Brisnet, are not particularly robust but they generally allow him to get into contention towards the latter stages of most of his races. He will likely need a fairly moderate pace upfront in order to have any chance of closing in on the leaders as the field turns for home and whilst the TimeForm Pace Projector does not predict such a pace materializing, other factors in this race suggest that such a pace (with moderate to fast initial fractions) is in fact quite possible. Since that effort in the Fred W Hooper, Fellowship has been working out quite well for Decker over the main track at Tampa Bay and in fact he posted an absolute bullet five furlong work back on February 9th. Now over the past three years, Decker has not had much success with runners making their second start off of a layoff as he has only won 5% of his past 63 starts and finished in the money 27% of the time. However, his fortunes may very well change with the addition of Ortiz today. Ortiz is having an incredible meet thus far, having won 26% percent of his first 376 starts. Furthermore, over the past seven days he has posted the line of 59-21-13-12 which is good for a 36% win rate and a 78% in the money finishes rate. Additionally on Thursday, Ortiz went 8-2-2-1 while on Friday he went 11-4-2-1. Quite simply, Ortiz is on fire right now and Decker has done exceptionally well in bringing him on to ride Fellowship. Although it would likely take a career best effort for Fellowship to beat this field today, he still should be able to get up in time to score a minor award and at 12-1 on the Morning Line is certainly worth consideration for use in any and all exotic wagers.
There is one other runner that deserves to be mentioned in this space for today’s race and that is the (9) Prince Lucky, the other Todd Pletcher trainee, a four year old son of Corinthian. Rather than be described as an underneath play in this field, the title of live longshot might be more apropos. There are three runners entered into this field exiting layoffs of more than 250 days: Tale of Silence (294 days), Quip (280 days) and Prince Lucky (259 days), the latter two which will be making their four year old debuts today. Prince Lucky has not been seen since the Belmont Stakes undercard last June a day in which he was contesting the eight and a half furlong $150K Easy Goer Stakes (Listed). In that race, Prince Lucky gave an incredibly gutsy effort as he was locked in a virtual dogfight with Rugbyman from the quarter pole until the wire and just managed to score the victory by a neck. That performance was good enough to earn him a 95 BSR which was a career best. Although he has yet to contest a mile distance in any of his eight lifetime starts, he may be best competing in races with one-turn configurations. Furthermore it will be quite interesting to see how he runs against this field given the long layoff, although his pace-stalking ability should be a major asset. Of the three runners that have not been seen since last summer, Prince Lucky has shown the most consistent and encouraging work pattern since the beginning of the year and in fact has posted some absolute bullets over the training track at Palm Beach Downs. Moreover, Pletcher has been absolutely masterful with getting his runners to fire off of long, long layoffs as over the past four years, with runners that are four years old or older and who won their last race and are now contesting a dirt route race following a layoff of more than 180 days, Pletcher has gone 4 for 9 (44% win rate) and posted a positive $2.38 R.O.I. Thus all signs point to Prince Lucky being successful in his 2019 debut for Pletcher and if he remains at or around his 8-1 Morning Line odds, he will offer great value in this race, especially if he can spring the upset.