Race of the Week: Gotham
Saturday March 9th: Race 10 at Aqueduct. The $300,000 Grade 3 Gotham Stakes run at one mile on the dirt for three year olds. (Post Time: 5:09 PM EDT).
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
Selections: 5-6-7
(5) Haikal: The barn of trainer Kiaran McLaughlin sends out this son of Daaher for Shadwell Stable hoping to secure the third win in this race for both himself and this colt’s connections as he most recently captured the Gotham last year with Enticed whilst Shadwell won back in 2016 with Shagaf. Although this will be just the fourth career start for Haikal and his first against graded stakes competition he was quite impressive in his most recent performance in the $150K Jimmy Winkfield Stakes (Listed) run over seven furlongs last month here at Aqueduct. In that effort, Haikal sat well back of the initial leaders in the early stages of the race, gradually started moving in towards the rail as the field headed for the far turn, tucked inside along the rail during his trip along the turn and then was able to cut the corner on his rivals as the field hit the top of the stretch. It was here that he briefly encountered trouble as although he had moved into contention and was under a drive at this point, he was afforded no clear path alongside the rail from which to move forward as the rival he was engaged in battle with simply was not allowing him to get past. Finally, though with a sixteenth left to run, there was enough space for Haikal to draw clear and just get up in the final strides to win by a neck. For his valiant effort, Haikal not only earned a 99 Bris Speed Rating (BSR) but also a 106 TimeForm speed rating, both of which were career bests and make him a legitimate contender amongst this field if he can continue to improve as his career progresses. Furthermore, Haikal has run all three of his career efforts over the surface at Aqueduct and thus the familiarity with the rather deep surface could come into play in this race as several of his rivals have yet to run over the track. Finally, given the projected pace scenario for this race it appears that Haikal possesses the ideal running style for having the best chance of being successful and winning on Saturday.
The eight horse field that has been drawn for this year’s edition of the Gotham is quite unique in that six of the eight runners have, throughout their prior races, displayed an affinity for either being on the lead and dictating the pace or being within a length or two of the front and pressing the pace. Thus with so much early speed entered into this race, a swift initial pace is likely to ensue and furthermore this scenario is backed up by the TimeForm Pace Projector. However, Haikal is not amongst those six runners with good early speed; in fact, he is arguably the best closer amongst the eight assembled three year olds. He has shown excellent late running ability throughout each of his first three career efforts and whilst he is stretching out in distance to eight furlongs for the first time, his performance in the Jimmy Winkfield suggests that he will enjoy and possibly even relish the extra furlong. Thus expect Haikal to sit well back of the potential pace brouhaha at least early on before being guided by his jockey, Rajiv Maragh, into an ideal position from whence he can commence his drive to get up into contention and then blow past his rivals. Haikal is a solid professional horse and if a pace collapse occurs, he is the one horse in this field most likely to be able to take advantage of it. However, keep in mind that Aqueduct can occasionally be incredibly speed favoring, in which case even if there is a pace collapse, Haikal may only be in contention for a minor award as some of the more forwardly placed horses will be in a better position to nab top honors. Over the past three years McLaughlin has been doing quite well not only with runners attempting a route for the first time (17% win rate) but also with those horses that won their last race (23% win rate). Furthermore, over the course of the past 60 days when Maragh and McLaughlin have teamed up, Maragh has won with four of his six mounts for the trainer (67% win rate) and finished in the money with all six of those runners. Haikal’s most recent work over the training track at Belmont was fairly sharp and he appears to be coming into this race in good form. So long as Haikal is not overbet and remains at or near his 6-1 Morning Line odds, he will offer good value in this race as his closing ability must be respected. Look for this colt to secure a third win on Saturday for both McLaughlin and Shadwell as well as earn 50 crucial points towards the Kentucky Derby.
(6) Instagrand: One of the most highly regarded two year olds of 2018, this son of Into Mischief is set to make his 2019 debut on Saturday for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and owner OXO Equine. In fact Instagrand has not been seen since romping last August in the Best Pal Stakes (G2) at Del Mar. However, despite protests by Hollendorfer, owner Larry Best elected to shut the colt down and Hollendorfer was reluctantly forced to acquiesce. Originally, Instagrand had been pointed towards the eight and a half furlong San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita but when it became apparent that he would have to square off against two of Bob Baffert’s most highly regarded three year olds in Game Winner and Improbable, the decision was made to ship him East to the Gotham instead. Instagrand had been ultra impressive in his first two career starts, beating those fields by a combined 20 lengths all the while earning BSRs of 88 and 100 and TimeForm speed ratings of 112 and 107. However, Instagrand comes into this race having shipped across the country, following a 210 day layoff and is now being asked to stretch out an extra quarter mile as his last effort was only over six furlongs. At a time when many of his rivals already have one or two Derby preps to their credit, this year alone, this will be Instagrand’s first foray onto the Derby trail. Furthermore, his pedigree raises the question as to how far he wants to run as he is the full-brother to a stakes placed dirt sprinter. Thus while the concerns surrounding him are numerous and legitimate, if Instagrand can indeed return to racing fresh and ready to fire off of that long layoff, he might be a monster in the making and it could very well take a career best effort from one of his rivals to derail his chances of winning on Saturday.
Instagrand is amongst the runners in this field that have shown a propensity to be forwardly placed in the initial stages of their prior efforts. However, he was not speed crazy as a two-year old and in fact both the TimeForm Pace Projector and OptixPlot have suggested that it is indeed quite possible that jockey Javier Castellano will try and have him rate on Saturday. If Castellano can allow Instagrand to relax early on rather than become keyed up and keen to be on the lead, then this colt can sit just off the initial leaders and avoid becoming involved in an unnecessary speed duel. This would allow him to conserve vital stamina for making a bid to challenge the leaders as the field turns for home and if the track is playing towards being speed favoring it would put Instagrand in the best possible position for winning. Over the past three years, Hollendorfer has done moderately well when bringing back runners following a layoff of 90 days or more (16% win rate from 315 starts) while he has won 18% of his past 216 starts with runners attempting a route distance for the first time. Furthermore, over the past year Castellano has been winning at a 20% rate when racing at route distances. Since the beginning of the year, Instagrand has put together some solid but not particularly flashy works over the Santa Anita track to build up stamina, although his final work there over four furlongs was quite sharp. In addition, he has had a gate work since coming to Aqueduct and by all accounts appears to be physically fit coming into this race. Obviously the biggest question is whether or not he will be ready to fire or Saturday or if he needs this race (though the time to secure Derby points is rapidly dwindling). At even money on the Morning Line Instagrand offers no value in this race, though the talent he displayed as a two year old must be respected and thus he will need to be used for defensive purposes only in this spot. There is the definite possibility that Instagrand could easily dominate this field on Saturday and as such he needs to be considered a solid win contender in this spot.
(7) Not That Brady: Trainer Rudy Rodriguez sends out this son of Big Brown in an effort to secure much needed Derby points following a narrow defeat to Tax in the nine furlong Withers Stakes (G3) last month here at Aqueduct. In that effort, Not That Brady dictated the initial fractions of the race and set a fairly swift pace, all the while leading his rivals by no more than a length and a half at times. However, as the field turned for home, Tax was able to secure an inside position on Not That Brady and shot up along the rail to challenge his rival. Although Not That Brady was dead game down the stretch, he just simply could not hold off his rival and ended up just missing by a head at the wire. For that performance, Not That Brady earned a career best 101 BSR whilst TimeForm awarded him a 120 speed rating, both of which are the fastest last out speed figures amongst the entire field. As the distance of the Withers ultimately may have been a bit too far for this gelding, he certainly should appreciate the cutback on Saturday to a one-turn mile. Furthermore, Not That Brady is quite familiar with this track as four of his six career starts have come over the surface and in fact he has finished in the exacta in all four of those efforts. However, one concern to note is that since the Withers, Not That Brady has been dealing with the issue of a quarter crack in one of his hooves and as a result his preparation for this race has been less than ideal.
Not That Brady’s preferred running style is that of a pace-setter, a preference that he has displayed in all four of his efforts over the track at Aqueduct since last November. In fact, Not That Brady has attempted to take each of those fields in gate to wire fashion though he has only been successful twice (the other two times he was beaten by three quarters of a length and then by a head). The major issue with this colt’s running style is the abundance of other early speed type runners entered into this field. While the TimeForm Pace Projector has indicated that it is likely that Not That Brady will be on the lead for at least the first half mile, he will likely be facing intense pace pressure from his rivals especially if he attempts to set fast initial fractions. However, he has shown himself to be a tough gritty colt and there is the definite possibility that he could give another game account of himself and be battling down the stretch until the bitter end. Over the past three years, Rodriguez has done well with those runners racing on dirt (20% win rate from 1279 starts) while the apprentice jockey Reylu Gutierrez has done particularly well over the past year when aboard early speed type runners like Not That Brady (18% win rate from 298 starts). Not That Brady may not be good enough to hang on late and best all of his rivals but he certainly is talented enough to grind out a board finish even against this field. If Not That Brady can remain at or around his 5-1 Morning Line odds, he should offer decent value to those bettors that back his chances of finishing in the money on Saturday.