Race of the Week: Fountain of Youth
Saturday March 2nd: Race 13 at Gulfstream Park. The $400,000 Grade 2 Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Stakes run at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for three year olds. (Post Time: 5:32 PM EDT).
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
Selections: 4-5-7
(4) Bourbon War: The barn of trainer Mark Hennig sends out this beautifully bred son of Tapit out of a multiple graded stakes winning Artie Schiller mare looking to step back up into stakes company following an impressive win last month in his career debut here at Gulfstream Park. In that effort against $75K Optional Claimers facing non-winners of one, Bourbon War put on a very professional display as pilot Irad Ortiz Jr was able to adroitly maneuver the quite-agile colt through a crowd in the far turn and in doing so split rivals willingly (something that is not often seen in young three year olds, especially those that are Tapit offspring). After stalking the pace initially, he finally gained control of the lead in the stretch and eventually won by two and a quarter lengths. For his efforts he earned a 96 Bris Speed Rating (BSR) which was actually paired up with his previous best speed figure earned last December in the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct. Meanwhile TimeForm US awarded him a 109 speed figure for that most recent effort; both of these numbers make him a good fit in the overall scope of this race and if he can continue to improve going forward, he will merit serious contender status in this race. Additionally, there are two other major factors that should work in Bourbon War’s favor on Saturday: first and foremost, Irad Ortiz returns to ride and secondly, he should encounter an ideal pace scenario to run after in this year’s edition of the Fountain of Youth.
Through three career starts, Bourbon War has primarily displayed the running style of a mid-pack stalker, which given the abundance of runners in the field that possess early speed, that could be ideal especially if the projected fast initial pace develops. As the two runners drawn to Bourbon War’s immediate inside possess very good initial speed and will likely be forwardly placed early on, there is a definite possibility that provided he breaks well from the gates, Irad will try and guide Bourbon War over to the rail to secure an ideal position such that he can receive a ground saving trip throughout the race. There is a chance that a speed duel could ensue on the front end and potentially result in a pace collapse and it is here that Bourbon War’s familiarity with both the surface and the distance could come into play as Irad will likely ask his charge to respond the moment he senses the leaders in front of him are faltering. There is no question that this colt has serious ability and appears to be up to the task in front of him on Saturday. However, thus far during the current meet at Gulfstream, the Hennig barn has not been firing as their only winner in 25 starts thus far has been Bourbon War; yet, 10 other runners have hit the board. The decision by Irad to elect to remain onboard Bourbon War could be a crucial one as going into Friday, he had posted a line of 59-15-14-9 (25% win rate and 64% in the money rate) over the last seven days of racing at Gulfstream. Additionally, he has been winning route races at a 19% clip over the past year. Moreover, Bourbon War has posted several very solid works over the main track at Gulfstream since his last effort and appears to be in excellent shape coming into this race. The 10-1 Morning Line odds may not materialize on Saturday as there is a fair amount of hype surrounding this colt, but a price anywhere between 5-1 to 8-1 would still be fair as Bourbon War has excellent credentials and must be considered one of the most likely winners of the 2019 Fountain of Youth with 50 Kentucky Derby points on the line to the winner.
(5) Vekoma: This son of Candy Ride looks to make his 2019 debut for trainer George Weaver following a 118 day layoff. Vekoma was last seen winning the one-turn mile Nashua Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct last November after initially pressing the pace and then taking command of the race in the deep stretch, eventually winning by one and three quarter lengths. In that effort he was ridden with supreme confidence by jockey Manny Franco and Vekoma ended up earning a 101 BSR along with a 116 TimeForm speed rating. Saturday’s effort marks his first attempt at a two-turn route. The top half of his pedigree is without question well suited for handling the eight and a half furlongs; however, it is the bottom half that may give some individuals pause. His dam, a multiple graded stakes winner in her own right, is out of champion sprinter Speightstown and although the added distance of another half a furlong should not cause too much of an issue for Vekoma, going past this race and on to longer distances, limitations may arise. If Vekoma were though to get into a speed duel in the latter portion of this race as he tries to seize command of the lead from rivals, the lack of inherited stamina from his dam could end up hurting his chances of prevailing. Additionally the long layoff is definitely not ideal as over the past ten editions of this race, colts making their three year old debut in the race have only won twice. Moreover as this will be Vekoma’s first start at Gulfstream Park, it is worth noting that 10 of the last 12 winners of the Fountain of Youth ran their most recent race at Gulfstream Park; as such, this does not bode well for Vekoma. However, despite all the negativity there are several positive factors to consider when analyzing this colt.
Through his first two career starts, Vekoma has demonstrated the running style of a pace-presser. This colt does possess good early speed, so look for Franco (who ships in to ride) to sit another stalking trip just behind the initial leaders, likely pressing the pace once again. As the field turns for home, Franco will likely try to tip out his charge to move up and then get around the potentially faltering leaders and thus make a determined bid to seize control of the race. The recent work tab for Vekoma is filled with several bullet works over the training track at Palm Beach Downs and furthermore this colt will receive the wonder drug, Lasix, for the first time on Saturday which should help wake him up and allow him to be ready to fire off another solid effort. Although Weaver has gone 0 for 8 over the past two years with runners returning in route races after such long layoffs, Weaver’s barn at Gulfstream has been firing as he is currently winning at a 24% clip. Moreover, he has won 15% of his past 78 starts with runners receiving Lasix for the first time. Additionally, Franco has been winning route races at a 21% rate (from 464 starts) over the past year. Thus if Vekoma can handle the stretchout in distance as well as the two-turn configuration on Saturday and emerges fresh from the long layoff, he should be a legitimate contender in this race. If Vekoma remains around his 7/2 Morning Line odds, then he should offer some value to those bettors who endorse his chances in this race as he does have a chance at winning or at the very least hitting the board.
(7) Hidden Scroll: Quite possibly one of the most talked about runners on the 2019 Derby trail, this son of Hard Spun looks to make his stakes debut after absolutely romping in his career debut at the end of January. In that effort, against a field of $60K Maidens, over a sloppy one-turn mile at Gulfstream, Hidden Scroll seized command of the lead early on after breaking from the gates and never looked back after that as he gradually built upon his lead such that jockey Joel Rosario had him under a hand ride down the stretch. Hidden Scroll flat out dominated that field as he won by 14 lengths, earned a 102 BSR and was also awarded a 121 TimeForm speed rating which is amongst the best speed figures a three year old has ever earned in the first half of the year. Although this will be his first attempt at a two-turn route longer than a mile, Hidden Scroll has more than enough stamina in his pedigree to be able to handle Saturday’s eight and a half furlong distance. The main question surrounding this precocious colt after such a brilliant performance is: just how good is he? Was that effort in the debut simply the result of him taking advantage of a surface that was to his liking or is he could he truly be a monster for Bill Mott? On Saturday, the horse racing world will likely have a clearer picture as to the true ability of Hidden Scroll as he will surely be tested by numerous rivals over a fast track for the first time.
Hidden Scroll displayed blazing early speed in his debut and as the TimeForm Pace Projector has indicated will likely try and go straight to the lead once again. The only problem with that strategy is that there are several other rivals in this field that possess good (but not great) early speed and will likely desire to be forwardly placed as well. In that debut, Hidden Scroll never faced any pace pressure from any of the other runners in that field but that will almost certainly not occur this time as it would be highly unlikely for the field to spot Hidden Scroll a comfortable initial lead and then try and run him down. Rather, Hidden Scroll and Rosario could potentially face heavy pace pressure from the get go and it will be a true test of this colt’s talent to see if he can outlast his rivals whilst dueling on the lead. If he can wear down his foes without sacrificing too much of his own stamina (such that he has enough left in reserve to repel any other challenges as the field turns for home) then he should win this race. Thus far at Gulfstream, Mott has been off to a solid start having won 20% of his first 75 starts. Additionally, over the past three years, Mott has been winning at a 14% rate with runners that broke their maidens in their last start. Joel Rosario ships in from California to ride and over the past year he has won with 21% of his last 189 mounts in route races. Several of Hidden Scroll’s more recent works over the training track at Payson Park have been fairly solid which should suggest that he is ready to fire on Saturday. At 9/5 on the Morning Line and with his odds likely to dip even lower by post time, Hidden Scroll does not offer much if any value in this race. Yet his ability must be respected as he could very well beat this field with ease; as such he must be used for defensive purposes only in multi-race wagers.
There is one other runner to consider for use in this race and that would be the (8) Global Campaign, who should be deemed a live longshot in this field. A son of Curlin out of the A.P. Indy mare, Globe Trot, Global Campaign is a half-brother to both Bolt d’Oro and Sonic Mule. Global Campaign thus far has won both of his efforts at Gulfstream Park in such impressive fashion that the chart callers’ comments for each of those races indicate that he was wrapped up at the end by jockey Luis Saez. Now it should be noted that Brisnet awarded him a 96 BSR when breaking his maiden over seven furlongs whilst it appeared he regressed as he was awarded a 92 BSR when besting a field of $75K Optional Claimers at 1 1/16 miles. However, TimeForm was a bit more forgiving as it bestowed upon him 111 and 109 respective speed ratings. If Global Campaign can move forward in his second attempt at eight and a half furlongs over a surface he is proven on, then he certainly should be competitive on Saturday. Furthermore, he appears to have drawn an ideal post position, given his pace-pressing running style, which will allow him to tuck in behind the likes of Hidden Scroll and the other early speed runners and sit an ideal trip with Saez aboard once again. This very versatile colt should be able to adapt to any pace scenario that may arise and will likely be in an opportune position to take advantage should the leaders begin to falter. He has yet to be asked for everything in either of his first two efforts and thus he could potentially unleash a monstrous effort on Saturday. His trainer, Stanley Hough, has been having a fantastic meet thus far at Gulfstream as he has won with four of his first ten runners and eight of those ten have finished in the money. Moreover, he has been winning at a 36% rate with runners contesting route distances over the past three years. Luis Saez has also been having a fairly solid meet as he has been winning at a 21% clip thus far and boasts a 20% win rate from 299 route races over the past year. If Saez can give this colt an ideal trip, there is a very good possibility that he could surge past his rivals in the stretch and score an upset victory in the 2019 Fountain of Youth. With Morning Line odds of 10-1, there is a good chance that he may be overlooked by some and thus will offer excellent value to those who support him in this race.