Race of the Week: Rebel
Saturday March 16th: Race 8 at Oaklawn Park. The $750,000 Grade 2 Rebel Stakes run at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for three year olds. (Post Time: 5:57 PM EDT).
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
Selections: 2-9-8
(2) Long Range Toddy: One of six entrants between the two divisions of the Rebel Stakes for trainer Steve Asmussen, this son of Take Charge Indy is the more accomplished runner of Asmussen’s two charges in this field. His two year old career saw him racing at Remington Park in Oklahoma where he capped off a successful 2018 campaign with a narrow win in the $400K Springboard Mile Stakes (Listed). He then followed that effort up with a close defeat by just a neck in the $150K Smarty Jones Stakes (Listed) here at Oaklawn Park back in January over a mile. In his most recent effort in the eight and a half furlong Southwest Stakes (G3) here at Oaklawn, he had an absolutely brutal trip in the latter half of that race. In the Southwest, Long Range Toddy had been advancing up along the rail from sixth place as the field turned into the stretch; however, it was at that point that the colt got stuck behind a wall of horses and his jockey rather than try and move him off of the rail, elected to stay on it. By the time a running path opened up, Long Range Toddy’s rivals were well ahead of him down the stretch although the colt finished quite well to be able to secure third and showed great competitive spirit in that effort. For his performance in the Southwest, Long Range Toddy earned a 109 TimeForm speed rating, which while it is a solid number, is a bit slow compared to some of the recent figures posted by his main rivals in this field. As such, he will have to continue to improve today and will certainly need to move forward speed figure wise in order to have a chance at pulling off a major upset. However, there are two major factors working in his favor today. First and foremost is his experience over the track. Only one other runner in this entire field has even attempted a race over the surface at Oaklawn, whilst Long Range Toddy has finished in the money in two stakes efforts already this year here at Oaklawn and his most recent effort came at today’s distance. Second, Long Range Toddy has drawn an ideal inside position for this field which should suit his running style much better than the far outside post he drew in the Southwest. Additionally, this colt’s running style should be of great benefit to him as well given the projected pace scenario for this race.
Over the course of his six race career, Long Range Toddy has primarily displayed a pace-stalking running style. This is significant due to the expected pace scenario for this race; unlike the other division of the Rebel which is absolutely loaded with early speed type runners, this field came up a bit light on speed (although there still is enough entered for the TimeForm Pace Projector to suggest that the initial pace of the race will be fast). Thus it would be no surprise to see Long Range Toddy sent from the get go as his new jockey, Jon Court, will likely try and hustle him out of the gates in order to secure ideal position on the rail for a ground saving trip throughout the race. While his Brisnet Late Pace figures are a bit slower than those of his main rivals, Galilean and Improbable, Long Range Toddy still has consistently demonstrated that he can be competitive and close quite well regardless of the speed of the initial pace that he is stalking. Although Richard Eramia had ridden Long Range Toddy in each of his last five starts, it was likely his performance in the Southwest that irritated Asmussen enough to make the switch to Court who is a bit more of an aggressive rider and has done well when riding for Asmussen over the past 60 days (67% win rate and 100% in the money finishes). Additionally, while Court has not been riding spectacularly here at Oaklawn, he has put together a solid meet thus far as he has won 15% of his last 88 starts. Over the past three years, Asmussen has done quite well when sending his runners out to compete in both route races (19% win rate from 3246 starts) and on dirt (20% win rate from 5692 starts). Long Range Toddy’s five furlong work on March 2nd was a nice sharp bullet and it appears that this colt should be ready to fire off another solid effort today. Although Long Range Today is a bit of a longshot in this field at 10-1, he does have the talent to be a major contender in this race and could possibly score a major upset over the two likely heavy favorites; additionally, he will offer a bit of a price to those individuals looking for value in this race who are not willing to endorse the chances of either Improbable or Galilean.
(9) Improbable: The first part of the two-headed monster that trainer Bob Baffert has entered into the two divisions of the Rebel Stakes, this son of City Zip will be looking to make his 2019 debut today following a very impressive win in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) last December. The effort he put forth in that race was nothing short of dazzling as he stalked an initially swift pace set forth by stablemate Mucho Gusto before moving up to take command of the race as the field entered the stretch. He made that move quite easily and gradually widened the margin between himself and Mucho Gusto as he eventually won by five lengths at the wire. It appeared that Improbable was not even fully extended in that effort and as such could likely have won by daylight had his jockey, Drayden Van Dyke fully opened him up. The 118 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for that performance is the highest last out speed figure amongst the entire field by four points (Extra Hope is next at 114) and if this colt can move forward from that effort, then by all accounts he will be incredibly hard to beat in this race. However, Improbable has not been seen racing competitively in 98 days and despite a series of brilliant recent works, questions linger as to exactly how fresh this colt will be and whether or not he may need this race to get into form for future races in his 2019 campaign. Yet, those doubts can be tampered a bit as over the past decade Baffert has shown that he knows what he’s doing with runners entered into this race as he’s won it six times since 2010 and it was in the Rebel that American Pharoah kicked off his three year old campaign that ultimately led to a Triple Crown and concluded with a Grand Slam title.
Through the first three races in his undefeated career, Improbable has displayed a pace-pressing/pace-stalking running style. As there is not a lot of speed entered into this field (in fact the biggest speed threats for this race appear to come from the horses drawn to both his immediate inside and outside), it would be no surprise to see Van Dyke hustle his charge out of the gates but then immediately sit back and allow him to rate just behind the initial leaders. The TimeForm Pace Projector has suggested that the early pace for this race will be fast and has indicated that Improbable will be sitting just behind rivals Classy John and Galilean, stalking the initial fractions and waiting for that opportune moment in which Van Dyke can move him up to make a bid for the front and possibly seize command of the race. If his past efforts are any indicator, that move may likely come just as the field is turning into the stretch when Improbable makes his move to surge past the leaders and blow on by them down the stretch, especially considering his Brisnet Late Pace figures are the fastest in the entire field. Van Dyke has ridden Improbable for each of his first three starts and thus retains the mount today to preserve that familiarity bond between horse and rider. Over the past year, Van Dyke has been winning at a 22% rate when riding in route races. Additionally, over the past three years, Baffert has done quite well with runners returning from layoffs of more than 90 days as he has won 25% of his past 205 starts and he has been winning at a 33% rate when shipping in runners from the West Coast. The last several five and six furlong works for Improbable have been incredibly sharp and by all accounts, this colt appears to be in excellent shape. If Improbable can fire coming into this race following a lengthy layoff, then he certainly is the one to beat but at 3/5 on the Morning Line and with his odds possibly dipping even lower by post time, it may be best if bettors use him for defensive purposes only in all of their wagering as there certainly is no value here.
(8) Galilean: The barn of trainer Jerry Hollendorfer ships in this son of Uncle Mo to take on arguably the toughest field that he has faced in his brief career. Prior to today’s start, Galilean had been competing against California-bred company in restricted stakes races out at Santa Anita and Los Alamitos. In his most recent effort in the eight and a half furlong $200K California Cup Derby (Listed) at Santa Anita, Galilean stalked the initial pacesetters before moving up with a three wide bid to challenge for the lead in the final turn. He eventually drew past his rivals, opened up a five length lead down the stretch, and was ridden out by jockey Flavien Prat at the end as he won by four and a half lengths at the wire. For his efforts, Galilean earned a 109 TimeForm speed rating which in fact he paired up with the figure from the effort prior to the California Cup Derby. However, it should be noted that whilst the TimeForm pace figures for that race were not coded as being fast, the race was run over a track with a major speed bias and thus that needs to be taken into consideration when reviewing Galilean’s most recent speed figure. Additionally, that last out speed figure is a bit slow when compared to that of rivals Extra Hope and Improbable and as a result, Galilean will certainly need to improve in order to have a chance of being truly competitive today. The pace scenario for this race is a bit interesting and given Galilean’s preferred running style, this colt will certainly be playing a part in determining how the initial stages of this race evolves.
Over the course of his first four races, Galilean has displayed both pace-setting and pace-pressing running styles. Although he is not nearly as fast as the sprinter, Classy John, drawn just to his inside, this colt does have enough early speed to be able to get out to the front and dictate or contest the initial fractions if his jockey and connections choose to do so. However, given that Galilean showed a willingness to be able to rate in his most recent effort, it would not be surprising to see Prat employ a similar strategy and allow his rival to make the lead and do all the heavy lifting in the race whilst Galilean sits back and bides his time waiting for that opportune moment from whence to strike for the front and take over the race. Galilean’s Brisnet Late Pace figures are the second fastest in the entire field so there is no doubt that he can run well late in this race regardless of how fast or slow the initial pace may be. However, it does need to be noted that all of those figures came from recent efforts against inferior horses and may be a bit inflated and thus Galilean will need to prove that he belongs competing against graded stakes caliber rivals. Over the past 60 days, Prat has ridden remarkably well for Hollendorfer as he has won with 57% of his mounts for the trainer and finished in the money 86% of the time. Moreover, Prat has been riding quite well in route races over the past year as he has been winning at a 22% rate. Additionally, over the past three years, Hollendorfer has been winning at a 20% rate both in graded stakes races and with runners making their second start following a layoff. Since his victory last month, Galilean has put together some solid works for Hollendorfer and should be quite fit coming into this race. If this young colt can handle the major step up in class today and prove that he belongs in this field, then he certainly has a chance at scoring a mild upset over the likes of Improbable; however, at 3-1 on the Morning Line, he is just too short of a price to endorse as the top selection in this race and should be used for defensive purposes only instead.