Hey everyone, Bryan Doranski here and I am excited to be bringing some picks from Remington Park for my Daily Gallop debut! We have 13 races today to go through and with a mix of class races, there should be plenty of spots for value plays as well as some best plays. Forecast for Sunday around first post should be 48 degrees with no precipitation in sight and about a 10 MPH wind from the north, which will hit the horses on the backstretch. First post is 1500 CST. Be sure to follow @BDHorseplayer on Twitter
RACE 1: Maiden Special Weight $33,000, 6F on the turf- 2 Year Old
Only a few horses here have experience, and it makes sense to look for some value. This is the kind of race I use to try and get a feeling for the track for the day, and see if anything special was done for the big stakes later, perhaps the track has a new bias or they cut it deeper and removed some speed bias- it can determine the whole rest of our plays.
#7 EMPIRE OF GOLD From the little we know of this race the 7 is going to be up front early and is likely to improve on a second start. For this level the horse ran a decent pace in a 2nd place finish last week. Horse is going to get some money and coming off a short rest, may not give the best effort here.
#5 CODE RUNNER Last few times out the horse has raced 8F and has been a gamely 2nd twice in what most view a slow pace. Coming back shorter here, horse should be primed and being an Asmussen horse, you know it will be.
#2 REVIVAL- Nothing special out of this first timer but, the pedigree is solid with the sire offspring winning at 14% clip in their debuts, coupling that with Offolter who is winning 18% with firsters and Quinonez who at this surface and distance is showing a 1.19 ROI- is worth watching. 30-1 ML if the connections believe in this horse and bet it down to the low teens, I will believe in their backing and watch it closely.
RACE 2: Claiming $7,500N2L, 6F on dirt
Here is a race of horses that can’t be counted on time and time again, so tread lightly here, there is a reason they are $7,500 claimers.
#5 INCLUSIVELY comes in from a class drop after looking a good 3rd in a $20,000N2L race on 12/5. If we can get this horse best effort here, in what should be a good pressing trip, should get us home, this is horse is the ML fav and that should be a thought here, depending where the tote lands.
#12 THREE TIME CHARMER- this is a horse that has the speed to win but has had a few difficult trips and has yet to find a home. This time comes out as a fresh gelding, and if does not get involved in the early speed battle between the 1 and 9, and can not be wide, would be a good choice if we are above say 3-1 or so.
#7 CHA CHA NOW Y’ALL- So this horse figures to be out front early on and appears to be better than the 1 and 9 in terms of quality. Before the race on 12/4 horse has been running against better, and last out against this company proved to fit in
#11 RAMBLIN FEVER- This horse is lightly raced since October and has been getting better with each start, and all reports show that the blinkers are off today. Perhaps they send this horse today and can outlast the cheaper speed I referenced above in the 1 and 9. At 6-1 ML I think it would be worth a shot here.
Longshot play #13- HONOR DEPUTY- Has improved in each of the last 3 starts and should get a good off the pace setup here. Only fear here is the horse may be a little slow in todays company, with the improvements we have been seeing, another step forward wins this race.
RACE 3: Maiden Special Weight, $42,075, 6F on dirt, 3,4,5 Year Old
I could probably overthink this race and put together some crazy information, but I do not think I need to.
#8 MIGHTY BUGSY- This horse should sit nicely off the pace and if runs true to the last few outings probably towers over this field. Downside is it appears the horse is declining slightly, but the connections have had this horse all over the place in distances.
#1 WHAT THINKING- Horse has been in the money last few times out and fits well here. If the 8 takes another step back, WHAT THINKING, should be ready to pounce.
RACE 4: Allowance, $34,000N2L 8.318F on dirt, 3-Year-Old and up
Finally get up to the route distances for the day, track bias of these has been speed friendly with 65% of the winners being in the top 3 positions at the first call. This race has quite a bit of speed up front early, so will need to see if anything changes with the bias before Sunday.
#4 NEW MEXICO- I like this horse, but I think the ML is indicative of the horse being way too short for a play. Horse improved greatly from the first start last out but would stand to reason a regression here would make sense. Not a huge fan of a maiden winner last facing winners for the first time, and if this horse does get too short, and regress a touch, it wouldn’t surprise me.
#7 COMEDIAN- If we excuse 2 back at Santa Anita, this horse has been consistent over the past few months and appears to prefer the routes. COMEDIAN should sit behind 2,3,4,6 early and get first run on the group of cheap speed.
#6 KENAI BOB- This horse is very interesting to me at the 10-1 ML. Horse was running competitively, then last out, performed poorly. Connections decided to geld and return today with De La Cruz with the mount. This race from a speed point looks to be more on pace when this horse was running 2nd’s and if that holds true, I would expect this horse in the money, fighting for the win.
RACE 5: Allowance Optional Claiming $75,000N2L, 6.5F on dirt- 2-Year-Old
This race is interesting, mostly because there are a few horses that could give a nice price and beat the ML favorite.
#6 SAMURAI CAUSE- ML Favorite here and no surprise, horse has been running well, but at a 6/5 ML I cannot recommend this play. I think there are too many positives for the other horses for my own betting style that I will be looking elsewhere.
#4 OKIE HEATER- Last out as a long price in a stakes route, horse did not perform, but at sprint distances, the 2 out before last performed at a good spot. Horse has typically been breaking slowly but might have figured it out breaking 3rd last out before tiring in the route. Currently a 7/2 ML and if I can get close to that, I will be using this one for a win.
#7 TALE TWISTER- This horse has been progressing since the layoff in September and now comes back 3rd from that LAYOFF. Horse should be in a good pressing trip today and have first run at the tiring group of leaders. If this horse can stay within 3 lengths or so and get a good run at the leaders, another great opportunity to beat the favorite.
RACE 6: Claiming $7,500, 7F on dirt, 3 Year Old and Up
This race does not have a lot of speed at first glance, with no horse than has to lead. I don’t think this race is fast enough for a closer to get to in time, so I will toss the 4,6,8 quickly.
#5 AT IT EARLY- This horse will be forwardly placed, and has the late velocity needed to win and sustain. If AT IT EARLY can avoid hooking up with the 3 or 7 and wasting energy, I think this horse can be the first to cross the line. Last out the horse looked tired coming out of the layoff and should be ready to run 2nd off the layoff. If this horse can get back to what it ran in middle Sept, before connections tried ALLOWANCE company, it should be clearly the best.
#2 GOLDEN DRILLER- I want to like this horse, I do, but the past performances tell me this horse prefers routes over sprints with most recent wins coming at 8F+. Horse is out of the Asmussen barn now and first outing for Steve Williams leaves me wanting to see another before I lay money on a 5/2 ML.
#1 DAZZLING OKIE- Horse is going to be the post time favorite I think, and I understand why. Horse showed some good speed in a third place finish in October in a higher class race than today. 3rd start post layoff and would not surprise me if this horse wins, I just hate the price for a win bet. If I was playing horizontals this would be a must include though.
RACE 7: Maiden Claiming $15,000, 8F on dirt, 3,4,5 Year Old
One last race of claimers before we get to the juicy part of the card with the stakes races. This race seems like a few cheap speed horses are going to set the pace, until the off the pace ones come in.
#8 SUITS ME- I want to like this horse but admittedly the horse needs to improve to win today. Figures to be out early with the 3 and 7 setting the pace, I just don’t know if the horse can finish.
#6 OKLAHOMA LINE- Has the best speed at this track on this surface and distance in the field and should benefit from the cheap speed out front. If the 3,7,8 cannot improve, then I would expect the 6 to get a good run and finish the race.
#1 GEORGIA DEPUTY- M/L Fav today and can make a lot of excuses for some of the previous outings. Has the highest figures in the field, but might be a touch slower than the 6 OKLAHOMA LINE, and if I have to pick between two of the pressers, I would like to have the one that appears to have the quicker turn of foot.
RACE 8: Trapeze Stakes $100,000, 8F on dirt, 2-year-old Fillies
Finally we get to some stakes this Sunday!!! This race is a dirt race for the girls, and has some really talented horses running. There is plenty of speed up front for this route race, and I would expect a closer to get there, but the bias at Remington this past month is only marginally favoring front runners.
#4 HUNNY HUSH- Comes out trying a new distance after going w2w in a 5.5F race last month. I think horse is a wildcard and could be worth a shot if the price is anywhere around the morning line. Quinonez will have this horse in good spot, and with only 1 other early horse inside should sit a great trip at a value price.
#3 PRINCESINHA JULIA- Guess who is back with a ML Favorite? Steve Asmussen returns with another entry at Remington and this horse should be a force to contend with. Has ran the biggest numbers on this surface and distance in the field and should sit with a perfect pocket trip. If the horse can return to last out, should win by 2 lengths and enjoy the day!
#6 TRIXIE RACER- Another horse that should benefit from the horses up front keeping an honest pace. Should be about alongside PRINCESINHA JULIA for most of the race, and the deciding factor will be how the jockey handles here. If SORENSON can avoid trouble and get through clearly, can be a factor in the win pool.
RACE 9: She’s All in Stakes $100,000, 8.318F on dirt, 3 Year Old and Up Fillies/Mares
This race is shaping up to be a real barn burner. The horses on the lead, can usually finish and I am excited to watch this one. On all accounts there should be enough speed here to be able to get the lead and hold on perhaps. The two favorites could hook up and tired themselves out, but they are clearly above the rest of them.
#6 HEAVENS WHISPER- This horse should sit in a good spot behind the 3 and 7. If these two hook up then HEAVENS WHISPER will be sitting pretty to win today at a ML of 10-1. Horse hasn’t run at this level before and may be too much, but fits on numbers and could be a benefactor
#7 REMEDY- Brad Cox gets Castellano to come down for this, and this horse has been all over trying to win a stakes race this year. Seemed to have gotten back to form in October for that Optional claimer win and comes back now in 45 days to give a go at a good pay day. As long as Castellano can ride without tying up the 3 or letting the 3 get too loose, should be able to win.
#3 BLUE MOONRISE- Horse is pretty short and will probably be a factor, if Castellano comes down and rates the 7 and lets BLUE MOONRISE get loose, it could be over quickly, but I think the HOF’er knows better than that. Horse has looked good in past few outings, just probably outmatched at Del Mar. Now comes here. I should note that the horse couldn’t win as a short Baffert entry but now enters Asmussen’s barn who as of Friday is hitting 25% at Remington at this Surface and Distance. Worth noting he is good at this track.
RACE 10: Usee It Stakes $70,000, 8F on dirt, 3-Year-Old Fillies
I like a few horses in this race, but I think the race melts down as there is a lot of speed up front early for this route. I think the 3 and 5 set the pace but the 1 and 12 keep it honest. I am going to go price hunting here with a few picks
#7 DICEY- Has been getting continually better and improving with every start. If able to improve another notch at 15-1 ML then I would be silly to not take a flyer here. He needs the pace to meltdown, and can be on the board if it does, as he stands to be a little quicker the 2nd half of the race than many of the counterparts.
#4 COUNTRY DAISY- While not really a price hunting option, I do believe this horse gets overlooked by most on the board, because there are a few flashier options. This horse has been hampered by some slow paces in its history and being an off the pace type doesn’t benefit from that, if we see a meltdown, Birzer may have his opening to bring this horse home.
#2 SHOBIZ SUPERSTAR & #10 EUTYCHIA- Both of these horses are big prices, but are the logical deep closers in this field. I would regret not mentioning them because if it truly melts down, on velocity numbers alone, these two will come flying late.
RACE 11: Jim Thorpe Stakes $70,000, 8F on dirt, 3 Year Old
A lot of horses here with some late velocity and this could be the most exciting finish of a race today.
#5 FAST BREAKIN CASH- Makes a lot of sense here as the ML Fav and will take money. Should get a relatively easy lead but I am not sure how I feel about a horse trying a new distance in this company. I feel like if this horse is going to be 9/5 ML it should have some experience here. Reported GELDED since the last start, which I like as an angle but not at 9/5.
#6 DOBBINS G- Martin Garcia aboard here and should be able to settle in behind the 9 and 5 and relax for the first half mile. At a 5-1 ML I think it has some room to be bet into a little. 2 back that performance may leave some value here, as the horse didn’t appear interested at all that day
#10 DAK DA MAN- Horse has been all over the place with speed and placings, trying to figure out what to do. Im not crazy about the layoff here but is worth a shot here on a horse that appears to run late. The 2 wins he has has been with fast paces, and I would be amiss to not take a shot here with what could be a good pace to run into.
RACE 12: Springboard Mile $400,000, 8F on dirt, 2-Year-Old
We get to the race that everyone wants to watch, and I am a little disappointed on paper. I think this race really comes down to three horses as I believe the others are just mismatched on paper. Perhaps I have read this race completely wrong, but it is possible to over cap easy races, and that is what I am trying to avoid here.
#3 ROWDY YATES- Horse has ran well its last 2 out, only concern I have is if we are seeing declining pace numbers here. Horse is relatively inexperienced at the route races but should not be discouraged as that was in the G3 Iroquois and todays action is a bit different.
#4 Answer IN- Another Brad Cox Castellano connection here and this horse has not broken well yet but still managed to win and get 2nd by a nose. Horse might be the best horse in the field and can only get in its own way. Adding another furlong could help, I just wish the horse had a bit better price attached to it.
#8 EMBOLDEN- This horse has raced with Joel Rosario aboard, and now we get Brian Hernandez. Michael Stidham has this horse ready to go for Dare to Dream Stables, and this might be the best price we get on this horse. Should get a favorable trip here with so many horses up front vying for the lead.
RACE 13: Jeffery A Hawk Memorial Stakes $100,000, 8.318F on dirt, 3-Year-Old and Up
The nightcap is upon us, I hope by now we have made some money and gotten on the board with a price or two. Before scratches this race is huge, lots of early horses and should be a fast pace up front. If any of these early speed horses scratch out, this will be the race that changes the most.
#9 Sleepy Eyes Todd- Horse is coming off a 77-day layoff but has ran huge numbers in its performances and stands to be the best in this field. I personally would have liked to see someone other than EIKLEBERRY on the mount, but that is what it is. He’s never ridden this horse before, and I am hopeful he finds what this horse likes the most. Of course, I am afraid this horse gets caught up in a speed duel early which could ruin a lot of what I envision.
#12 SHOTGUN KOWBOY- I suppose I have to talk about this horse since will take a lot of money- horse has been consistent lately, but I am not a fan of the jockey change here, after 2 solid easy wins. I think the risk vs the price we see may not be good enough for a play here.
Longshots:
If this pace melts down with the fast-early pace, I will be looking at a combination of
#1 UNITED PATRIOT
#2 NET GAIN
#5 LOOKIN AT LEE
All 3 of these horses stand to benefit for a collapse in the pace and have shown they can run at some solid pace figures. The downside here the pace will have to fall apart for one of these horses to win. So, I wouldn’t recommend a play here, unless you also feel the pace is going to fall apart and leave us with a high price closer to end the card.