The Pacific Classic is a G1 1-1/4th race on the dirt at Del Mar and is part of the “Win and You’re In” series for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Strangely enough only 1 horse has ever completed the Pacific Classic / Breeders Cup Classic Double in the same year, and it was Accelerate last year but it is not looking like this trend will continue. While we have a field of 10 for this year’s edition of the Pacific Classic, I think most would agree that any runner in here would need some racing luck to go on and win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. However even though this field may not have a superstar, it will be a great betting race so let’s get into the contenders starting with post 1 and working our way to post 10.
Post 1 – War Story:
This 7 year old gelding keeps showing up in these big spots and while he does not always win he very rarely runs poorly. In his last 15 races War Story has finished in the money 8 times including last time out in the G3 Monmouth Cup. However, I think 8-1 is a bit low to play War Story here as his record at this 1-1/4 distance is nothing to write home about (5-0-0-0). He is a hard-knocking horse though and if you’re a Trifecta or Superfecta player I would include him on your ticket’s underneath but ultimately, I think he is a safe toss for the win.
Post 2 – Quip:
Since coming back as a 4-year-old Quip has done no wrong in my opinion. He finished 3rd in his 4-year-old debut to Prince Lucky at Gulfstream who is a Gulfstream specialist then came back to win the G2 Oaklawn Handicap. Last time out in the G2 Stephen Foster he dueled and put away Tom’s d’Etat who came back to dominate a stakes race at Saratoga but was ultimately caught by Seeking the Soul who is the morning line 3-1 favorite in here. Today Quip should be able to run a softer pace up front and I am a big fan of him stretching out today. I have always been high on Quip and I would be surprised if he ran poorly today against this field. He will be my top pick in this race today and I would include him on all your tickets although I think he does get bet down a bit from his 9-2 morning line.
Post 3 – Pavel:
Only finishing 3rd in 1 of his first 4 starts of 2019 I think makes 7-2 morning line on Pavel very tough to swallow. He ran 3rd last time out at this 1-1/4th distance in the G2 Suburban Handicap behind Preservationist who ended up running poorly in the G1 Whitney next time out. He is the class of this Pacific Classic field however as he has run in 14 consecutive G1 or G2 races including the 2018 Pacific Classic where he finished 2nd behind Accelerate, but it was a very distant 2nd. Like War Story I would use Pavel underneath for Trifectas and Superfectas but I would toss for the win.
Post 4 – For the Top (ARG):
Since coming to North America to run For the Top has not lived up to the hype. The G1 winner from Argentina has yet to find the right spot in 2 starts so far in North America. Last time out he set a moderate pace in the G3 Cougar II Handicap which was won by Campaign but For the Top faded and faded badly finishing over 13 lengths behind Campaign. I know he is a Bob Baffert trainee now, but I am tossing this one. There is other speed in here including Quip who should be able to put this one away easily. Also, Martin Garcia is getting the mount today which is usually Baffert’s number 3 stakes rider which does not inspire confidence here. I am tossing For the Top for the win and I would only use if you plan on using most or all underneath on exotic wagers.
Post 5 – Seeking the Soul:
Seeking the Soul in my opinion is a horse you must include on all tickets even if you are not a fan. He was impressive last time out in the G2 Stephen Foster running down Quip and 2 back he finished 3rd behind Mckinzie who right now is considered the top male dirt horse in the country. He will need a pace to close on if he is going to win and I am unsure if he gets that today but either way, he does his best running late. He has never run here at Del Mar before which is always a question mark as some horses just flat out hate this surface, but I find it hard to believe that Johnny V would fly across the country to ride a horse who isn’t live. He is my going to end up as my 3rd choice here but will be used on all my tickets involving this race.
Post 6 – Higher Power:
In my opinion the only positive on Higher Power is that Flavien Prat is in the irons. Nothing about him makes me think that he is worth using on your tickets, especially at 8-1 morning line. He finished 2nd last time out against much weaker here at Del Mar in an ungraded stake and 2 back he finished a well beaten 5th to Vino Rosso in the G1 Santa Anita Gold Cup. I am tossing this one on my tickets and like For the Top, Higher Power is toss for the win and I would only use if you plan on using most or all underneath on exotic wagers.
Post 7 – Tenfold:
“Big Money” Mike Smith is in the irons today on Tenfold and he is the definition of a boom or bust horse. In 4 races as a 4-year-old he won the G3 Pimlico Special at this 1-1/4th distance but has failed to be a threat in his other 3 races. I have always been a fan of Tenfold and I would be much more willing to take 8-1 on him than 8-1 on Higher Power but he is a high-risk high reward horse. My ultimatum on Tenfold is that if you’re playing a deep multi race ticket I would have him on it, especially with Mike Smith in the irons. Although I am a fan of Tenfold I think he is a class below a G1 caliber horse. He will be my saver on deep multi race tickets but that is it.
Post 8 – Campaign:
At morning line 6-1 Campaign in my opinion must be considered. He is coming in off an impressive win last time out here at Del Mar which is always a positive sign for me when a horse is stepping up in class after a big win over the track. The distance also should not be an issue as his last 2 wins are at 1-1/2. Campaign is a horse who should be on all your tickets like Quip and Seeking the Soul as I think he is a serious win contender here. He has continued to improve all 2019 and with a field with no superstar today could be his coming out party if he runs his “A” race. He is my 2nd choice behind Quip.
Post 9 – Mongolian Groom:
At 20-1 morning line I think Mongolian Groom is the bomb that you want to use on your tickets, especially if you are an Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta player. Last time out in the G2 San Diego Handicap he was closing in on Catalina Cruiser who is thought to be one of the top male dirt horses and today is adding extra distance. If he gets a pace set up like he did in the San Diego Handicap or the Santa Anita Handicap I think he will finish in the money at a price. He will end up as my 4th choice here but I would not be shocked if he finished better than that and I fully expect him to outrun his 20-1 morning line odds.
Post 10 – Draft Pick:
Draft Pick I think is in over his head today and while he has never finished worse than 4th in his career I think today is the day he finally does. Yes, I know he should improve 2nd off the layoff here but there are too many others that have run better against tougher in their careers for me to use Draft Pick as a win contender. Like Higher Power and For the Top I think Draft Pick is a toss for the win and I would only use if you plan on using most or all underneath on exotic wagers.
Top Choice: Quip (2)
Other Win Contenders: Seeking the Soul (5), Campaign (8)
Playable Longshot: Mongolian Groom (9)