Race 1: Claiming $12,500 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
1- Stardoza (Girten/Morales): Takes a big drop in class, has superior speed figures, and looks like the primary early speed. Clearly the one to beat.
2- Lil Hooh’s Hooh (Hoffman/Ayala): Came close but just missed four times at the level last year, then finished runner-up twice against these at Tampa Bay Downs. Ronnie Allen jumps off her to ride a rival. Not encouraging.
3- Here Comes Ava (Wismer/Walker): Was in good form at the end of the meet last year, but her worktab this year has been excruciatingly slow. Who knows what to expect?
4- Ultimate Baroness (Hayes/Dominguez): Started tailing off at the end of last year, and races here for the first time since September 26. Had a rough break when disappointing last out, so maybe a clean start will do the trick.
5- Tiz Red Wine (Walsh/R. Allen): The other primary speed of the field. She almost wired a field of open claimers on turf last out at Gulfstream Park, and her figures on the synthetic are very competitive. Should press the leader on the outside and could wear her down.
6- Red Starlet (Russell/Martinez): Cuts back in distance and should show speed from the outside. Her trainer isn’t much with horses off a long layoff, however.
TOP PICKS: 1-5-3
Race 2: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
1- Ravenbro (Englehart/Worrie): New York invader was well-beaten in his two dirt starts earlier in the year. Not feeling it.
2- Cohiba Ghost (Trombetta/Gallardo): This firster has had some good workouts a t Fair Hill, and catches a fairly easy field for his debut. Commands respect.
3- Flats and Sharps (Kintz/Pino): He’s been very flat in his career so far, losing his only two starts by double-digit lengths.
4- Mas Chiklin (Connelly/Morales): Finished a good third on debut at Tampa Bay Downs. Both horses who finished ahead of him came back to win. Gets blinkers on. The one to beat.
5- Slick it Up (W Rice/Cox): Got a tune-up thrashing at Keeneland last out. He was rounding into form at the end of the meet last year, including a near-wire job on September 27. Look for Cox to send and try to carry the speed as much as possible.
6- Neverlookback (Rojas/Dominguez): There’s not much reason for him to look back in his races, considering most of the field is in front of him at the end of them.
7- Perfect Mine (L Rice/Ayala): Another Linda shipper! This one has been working out steadily at Aqueduct, now heads up north to debut. Very intriguing.
TOP PICKS: 4-2-7
Race 3: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
1- Great Harbour Cay (Rodriguez/Gallardo): He’s got boatloads of early speed, and could get a ridiculously easy setup, given the lack of pace among the rest of the group.
2- With Exultation (Brooks/Spieth): Is cross-entered here and in a race on Tuesday. This is an easier spot, and it’s around two turns, which is more to his liking.
3- Bartleby (Cobb/Rodriguez): Had been based at Finger Lakes all of last year, and was consistent there, but now ships out in search of a two-turn spot. Should press the loose leader and can pick up a piece.
4- Go Hippo Go (L Allen/M Allen): Was soundly beaten in his last three main-track tries. Has to prove himself again.
5- Tinto Mesa (Rojas/Morales): Got a recent race under his belt when finishing fourth at Pen National last out. He earned a sharp speed figure of 79, and, remarkably, the top three finishers in that race all came back to win. Furthermore, he’s won 11 times from 26 starts at Presque Isle, and has the best average late pace figure.
6- Uncle Dave (Hoffman/Ayala): He had a lousy winter at Tampa Bay, but ran some great races last year on this track. Can he recover his form, or has he tailed off for good? We’ll find out.
TOP PICKS: 1-5-2
Race 4: Claiming $25,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs
1- Brooklyns Surprise (Ruberto/Vickers): It took her eleven tries to break her maiden, doing so two back. Followed it up with a flat effort first off the bench. Will the lightbulb angle come into play?
2- Take Me Home (Hamm/Gallardo): Started off the Tampa Bay season in sharp for, before tailing off after her maiden win. Her lone race over this track was encouraging; she lost her debut by a nose despite running off before the race.
3- U Know I B Lion (Hoffman/Morales): Her figures have never gone into that mid-70s range probably needed to win this race.
4- Ma De Taw (Rogers/Ayala): Showed speed and faded in every try against winners. Races for the first time since July 9. Up against it.
5- Bonsai Benny (Raines/Villa-Gomez): Outside of a good try over turf two back, her form has been dull. Maybe the turf form will transfer to the synthetic; it’s her only hope.
6- Prospettiva d’Oro (Russell/Allen): Lightly-raced filly will be used aggressively early. I wouldn’t expect her to be on the lead for long, however; she’s faded badly in every race except one.
TOP PICKS: 2-1-6
Race 5: Claiming $12,500 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 Mile
1- Lord Revelstoke (Corrigan/Burke): Managed to wire a n/w2L field in his last appearance, at Turfway Park back in December. Tries this level for the first time after a bit of a break. In a race without much pace, he’ll hope to get an easy lead.
2- Animus (Ferraro/Rodriguez): Was in sharp form over the winter at Tampa Bay, before a dull try on the turf last out. His late pace figures have been fantastic, and he should sit a good trip rating near the pace. A bit of a grinder, but a contender.
3- Dado’s Dream (DePasquale/Gallardo): Makes his first appearance outside of Charles Town. Ran a career-best race in his last start, back in October.
4- Perfect Joe (L Allen/M Allen): The primary challenger to Lord Revelstoke on the early lead. Wired the field two starts back at Tampa Bay, before stopping badly after being rushed to the lead. Hopefully he’ll have a cleaner break this time.
5- Im Chillin (Potts/Villa-Gomez): Almost always rallies from far out of it and falls short. He grinded out a victory last summer at this track for a carer-best figure.
6- Mad Jack (Martin/Morales): Showed up-and-down form at this level last year, hitting the board in four of five tries while rarely looking like a serious threat to win. Trainer Joe Martin is just 4% with horses off a long layoff.
7- Captivated (Kocijan/Spieth): Stretches out from 5 1/2 furlong races at Mountaineer and Mahoning Valley, and simply doesn’t look fast enough to contend.
8- Dreams d’Argent (Valis/Garcia): Runs for the third time off a near two-year layoff. Wasn’t a factor in two grass tries at Tampa Bay, and I wouldn’t bet on him improving sharply third out.
TOP PICKS: 2-4-1
Race 6: Claiming $25,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
1- Science to Win (Kocijan/Spieth): That 1-for-50 lifetime mark is deserving of an automatic toss.
2- Indian Tango (Rogers/Dominguez): Has been on the worktab for a while, as he prepares for his first race since last August. Cuts back in distance after some poor tries around two turns, but there’s not much reason to believe less distance will move him up.
3- Elsie Time (Wismer/Gallardo): Pulled the speed/fade act many times at the level last year. Gets a jockey upgrade from Vickers to Gallardo in his first start of the year.
4- Stormy Engagement (Rojas/Morales): With the exception of a poor race against allowance company two back, he consistently ran figures in the mid-to-upper 70s last year, which would be good enough for at least a placing. He’s got a good late kick and some good works for his first start off the layoff.
5- He Iz Gone (Connelly/Ayala): Broke his maiden in very impressive fashion last out at Tampa Bay, winning by 13 lengths and earning a huge figure of 86. If he runs anywhere near that race, he’s going to win laughing.
6- Pemaquid Pete (Connelly/R. Allen): The “other” Connelly scratched on Monday to run here. Tries winners for the first time after a grinding score at Tampa Bay. Will have to improve sharply to beat his entrymate.
7- Dragon Five (Antus/Stanley): Hasn’t come close to running a winning race, despite many chances to do so.
TOP PICKS: 5-4-6
Race 7: Starter Allowance $6,250, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
1- Sister Stella (Wismer/Dominguez): Mid-pack runner scored against allowance company in her season finale, and is one of three in here coming off an extended layoff. Has a recent bullet workout, and her figures before going on the bench were consistently strong.
2- Dance or Stroll (Brooks/Walker): Prompted the pace and stopped badly last out, but still earned a respectable figure of 75. Best recent race came at five furlongs. Not sure if she can hang in there late.
3- Dawn Lightning (LeCesse/Rodriguez): Had a terrible beginning last out at Finger Lakes and lost all chance. Her form at Gulfstream Park was sharp over the winter, but she benefited from a speed-favoring track both times. Very much a mixed bag.
4- Thirty Nine Seven (L Allen/M Allen): Hasn’t run a remotely competitive race in her last three starts.
5- Alexandra Kay (K Rice/Ayala): Ended her 2018 with a dull performance against stakes company at Woodbine, a spot where she was probably in over her head. Against friendlier competition at this track, she blew away her competition with some dazzling speed. Her workouts coming into her 2019 debut have been sharp.
6- May Flowers (Brooks/Gallardo): Was fairly inspired in her yearly debut at Woodbine last out, but will have to take another step forward to contend.
7- Gales of November (Santangello/Martinez): Take out one race at Turfway Park where she had a terrible break, and her form appears pretty sharp. Looks to press the pace and pounce, like she did when winning last out.
TOP PICKS: 5-7-1
Race 8: Claiming $5,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs
1- Bring It On Home (Brooks/Walker): Another speed/fade type whose best races came on bullring tracks. She might find things more difficult here.
2- Miss My Cable (Zook/M Allen): Cuts back in distance and drops in for a career-low tag. Should be on or near the pace in her season debut.
3- Salt on the Rim (Burhow/Vickers): This speedy filly managed to barely hang on at Thistledown back in September, but other than that, tends to fade quickly.
4- Bar Car (Martin/Ayala): Hasn’t raced since a fifth-place try at Prairie Meadows back in July of 2017. I think she might need one to shake off the rust.
5- Go Money Go (Ruberto/Spieth): Got stuck in traffic when trying to rally last out at Penn National, and it snapped her steady streak of figures in the 70s. Looking for an improved performance with clear sailing.
6- Surfina (Radosevich/Gallardo): Another one with steady form, she was claimed from Wayne Rice at the end of the meet last year, then rested until now. Has a steady running style that gets her a check more often than not, but rarely wins it.
7- The Babe (Barron/Morales): Drops in class and cuts back in distance. Another one who shows lots of speed and doesn’t usually hang on.
8- Truly Brilliant (Bourke/Alencar): Didn’t show much at this level last year, and looks to race evenly most of the way.
9- Annisquam (Stablie/Dominguez): California invader is a “triple fig” over these: that is, her worst figure within her last three races is better than anyone’s best in their last three. If she can shake off the rust from her layoff, she’s going to win easily.
10- R Rousey (Zook/Fox): Played a game of “catch me if you can” last out at Mountaineer, and it just barely paid off. She won’t be able to play that game here without exerting a ton of early energy.
TOP PICKS: 9-6-7