Race 1: Claiming $25,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 Mile
1- Yeahiknow (Bourke/Alancar): Looks like a speed-and-fade type who isn’t good enough to withstand a strong closing rally. He tried this level a few times last year without much success.
2- First Reward (Potts/Villa-Gomez): Ran many races last year that looked very similar: he’d stalk the pace and look menacing late, only to fall short. He got some races under his belt at Tampa Bay Downs earlier in the year, so at least he’s a little fresher than some of his rivals. Even so, buyer beware.
3- Murry Spur (Engler/Ayala): Raced well on the turf at Fair Grounds this winter, and looks to be rounding into form at the right time. He hasn’t shown any ability at all on dirt or synthetic, however, so treading lightly.
4- Atlantic Sun (Brown/Martinez): He’s the controlling speed of the field, and has some good recent workouts at Charles Town. Will try to put the field to sleep on the front end.
5- City Plan (Harty/Morales): A stakes winner at two, he takes a big drop in class after competing against allowance horses last year and this winter. Will probably be overbet based on the back-class and the connections, but his speed figures are good enough to win this.
6- Dahog (W Rice/Cox): Hasn’t won a race in ages, and showed uninspired form in two Keeneland starts. Hard pass.
TOP PICKS: 4-5-2
Race 2: Claiming $6,250 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs
1- Club Level (Landsberger/Fox): Keeps trying and failing at this level. The 10-month layoff doesn’t help her case. Up against it.
2- Smokin Perfection (Rogers/Spieth): She broke her maiden with a strong figure last September here at Presque Isle, before turning in two duds to close her two-year-old season. Now drops for a career-low tag and has some good works under her belt. Cautiously optimistic.
3- Rickey’s Girl (Maddox/Diaz): Her most recent brisnet figure is 12 points better than the second-best in the field, and twenty points better than the third-best. Turned in a decent third at this level going a route last out, now makes her 2019 debut and has a strong work under her belt. Clearly the one to beat.
4- Trust N Keely (Ippolito/Sheroski): Can’t come close against these types at Penn National, not sure why she’d do any better here.
5- Elysium (Brooks/Walker): Was in good form last year at this track, but has tailed off badly in her last three races. She got a little time off since a very dull effort on May 9, and has worked well since then. Maybe a return to the synthetic will help. I respect her.
6- Miss Mission (W Rice/Vickers): Lightly-raced filly broke her maiden here last year with a strong figure, before getting pulverized against much better. Not sure why she’s in for such a low price first off the bench, but if she can recover her form from last year, she’s got a shot.
7- Country Thunder (Hogue/Dominguez): It took her thirteen tries to break her maiden, and it all went to hell after that. Not easy to endorse, especially first off the layoff.
TOP PICKS: 3-6-5
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, PA-bred, 5 1/2 Furlongs
2- Bad Medicine (Barron/Spieth): Lightly-worked firster catches a soft field to make his debut in. His workouts have been sharp enough; wouldn’t be surprised if he ran well here.
1- Joeyville (Rogers/Sheroski): Showed speed and faded in his first start off the bench last out at Charles Town. He’s got the best last-out figure in the field by a good margin. The strategy for him will be to go to the front and go for as long as he can.
3- Bucks Wildescapade (Zook/Fox): Was no factor in his only start, last fall at Penn National. Might need a race.
1A- Joe Flash (Rogers/Ayala): The other half of the Rogers entry was well-backed in his debut last year, and showed speed, but was forced to take up and faded away. Gets a jockey upgrade to Addiel Ayala and Lasix. Workouts have been good.
4- Sly Wildcat (Zook/Walker): Essentially jogged around the track on debut at Penn national in December. Has some good recent workouts, but will have to improve big-time.
5- Tintern Abbey (Schaber/Vickers): 0-for-56 says it all.
6- Signs of Greatness (Markgraf/Stanley): Similar profile to Bad Medicine. Going to watch the board with him.
7- Linns Boy (Chatterpaul/Martinez): He was getting his head kicked in against better horses on dirt at Aqueduct, but appears to be better on turf. Wouldn’t be surprised if he liked the synthetic as well. One to watch.
TOP PICKS: 1A-7-1-2
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
1- E Takes the Lead (Rogers/Dominguez): He shows speed just about every time out there, but rarely hangs on. I expect that to happen again.
2- Niceandez (Radosevich/Villa-Gomez): A very consistent sort, he always ran brisnet figures in the high-70s to low 80s last year, while hitting the board in six of eight against similar. He looks to be on or near the pace, then pounce on the turn.
3- Victory Bringer (Hayes/Spieth): Showed speed and faded many times while going a route last year. Now, he tries a sprint. Will that benefit him? I’ll take the wait-and-see approach.
4- Brockadoodle (Rojas/Walker): He’d have to improve by a lot to have any chance.
5- Jose Sea View (Brooks/Gallardo): Suffered a brutal trip last out at Charles Town, racing wide on every turn and fading late. Had been in good form over the winter prior to that, and gets last year’s top jockey, Antonio Gallardo, in the saddle. He’s a mixed bag.
6- K’s Little Bill (Martin/Morales): Yet another speed horse, this one has not been seen since a second-place try at Mountaineer last November. He’s been very lightly raced over the past two years, and it’s hard to say how he’ll react to a potentially lively early pace.
7-Pesci to De Niro (Zook/Fox): Ran some good figures at Mahoning Valley over the winter, rating just off the pace all three times. If this one falls apart, he could be there to pick up the pieces.
8- Alwaaly (Buhrow/Vickers): Didn’t run a single race last year that would contend in this spot.
9- Another For Mario (Kintz/Pino): Legendary jockey Mario Pino makes his 2019 debut aboard this charge, who hasn’t raced since November 5. Takes a big drop in class and cuts back in distance from his tries last year. Ran some big figures over the synthetic last year and has a good late kick. Worth a look.
TOP PICKS: 2-9-3
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
1- Curious Zelda (Walsh/R. Allen): Showed speed and faded going longer on turf at Gulfstream Park. Now cuts back in distance and returns to the synthetic.
2- Bratt Stack (Rogers/Pino): Showed some promise to start her career, but tailed off badly in her final two races of 2018, showing no early speed at all. She’ll make her first start off the layoff here, and gets blinkers on. Will have to fly from far out of it.
3- Peace Corps (Motion/Morales): $270,000 yearling purchase disappointed at Delaware Park as the favorite on debut, then stopped after showing speed on turf at Saratoga. Finds a friendly spot to make her three-year-old debut, and if she’s worth her purchase price at all, she should win.
4- Real Fancy (Bourke/Alencar): Debuted against winners last year, with dismal results. Runs for the first time since that July 5 outing, and worked sharply on May 8 getting ready for this race. Still not an easy sell.
5- Light of Congrats (L Rice/Gallardo): This first-timer had been working at Belmont Park, but will ship up here to make her debut. Rice is excellent with her Presque Isle starters, picking up five wins and four second-place finishes from thirteen starters there last year.
6- Puffer Fish (W Rice/Cox): Showed some speed in her second start of the year before fading quickly. Eligible for improvement in her third race off the layoff.
7- Sierra Sarah (Chatterpaul/Martinez): Didn’t run a step at Aqueduct over the winter, and her workouts as of late are uninspiring.
8- Gotta Fly (Martin/Ayala): Well-backed on debut at Oaklawn Park, but had an awkward beginning and lost all chance. Willing to give her another shot.
9- Pagalo in Avanti (J Radosevich/Spieth): Gets blinkers off and runs for Jeff Radosevich for the first time, who is hitting at 27% when horses make their debut for him. However, she hasn’t run a step in her career so far, and would need drastic improvement to have a chance.
TOP PICKS: 3-5-8
Race 6: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
2- That’s Buckbeak (Rice/Vickers): Presque Isle regular consistently ran figures in the upper-80s near the end last year. Raced well when in a similar spot last year, showing speed and faded late to get third.
3- Getyourmindright (Lyster/Morales): Ran a very game race to break his maiden at Turfway Park two starts back, when struggled over the turf at Keeneland. Now gets a drop in class and switches back to the synthetic. Look for Morales to send him to the front.
4- C the King (DePasquale/Delgado): Started tailing off near the end of last year. The trainer’s not great off long layoffs; if he shows anything first off the layoff, that would be a great sign going forward.
5- Pemaquid Pete (Connelly/Ayala): Tries winners for the first time after breaking his maiden for a tag at Tampa Bay Downs. Will rate off the pace near the inside, but does he have the closing kick to get by? It’s an open question.
6- Afterburner (Potts/Villa-Gomez): Looks like the classic speed-and-fade type. Even if he has a totally uncontested early lead, I don’t think he’ll have enough to hang in there late.
7- Bowman (Connelly/Martinez): Went gate-to-wire to wrap up his two-year-old season at Presque Isle last out, now makes his three-year-old debut against a mostly older field. He’ll have to contend with a lot of pressure on the lead. Ambitious spot.
8- Miami Smuggler (Bowersock/R. Allen): Finished a clear-cut second last out at Tampa Bay, earning the best last-out figure of the group. His lone win came over this track last September. It looks like he’s in good form at the right time.
9- Chuckles Candy (Walsh/Gallardo): Got some races under his belt on the turf at Gulfstream, now comes back to Erie. It took him eight tries to break his maiden, but he earned his career-best figure in his last start of the season, and those two races give him a fitness edge over some of these.
1- I’m Corfu (Rice/Cox): Benefitted from a speed-based track at Keeneland to win his 2019 debut last out. Showed speed and faded in most of his races at this track last year, and will find it rough trying to clear from post nine.
10- Red Cat (Barron/Pino): With all the pace signed up, his mid-pack style could lead him to sit a very advantageous trip.
1A- Rapa Iti (Rice/Cox): The other half of the Rice entry, he raced twice at Keeneland without success, persumably gearing up for this spot. Showed some signs of life at the meet last year, and will be coming from mid-pack.
TOP PICKS: 3-2-8
Race 7: Claiming $8,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
1- Bluegrass Ball (Brooks/Gallardo): Raced well despite a wide trip last out at Woodbine, a race that almost certainly served as a prep for today. He’s shown speed in the past, and in a race without an obvious front-runner, he could be dangerous if Gallardo chooses to send.
2- Piper Hill (Brooks/Walker): The “other” Brooks in the field beat Bluegrass Ball handily last out, but that was his only good race in recent memory. Not sure if he can do it again.
3- Masterofthehouse (Bourke/Alencar): Raced evenly last year at this track, alternating between sprints and routes while never winning. His late pace figures are sharp, so he should pack a punch in the stretch.
4- El Seventyseven (Girten/Morales): Hard-knocking veteran won three in a row to wrap up the season last year. His trainer is 21% with horses off a long layoff.
5- Jersey Street (Gonzalez/Spieth): Ran well at Tampa Bay over the winter, including a win from off the pace against similar company last out. He’s in good form coming in here.
6- Wild Winter (L Allen/M Allen): Improved sharply in his second start off a brief freshening, but his figures right now are just a cut below those of the top contenders.
7- Talk to the Media (Criollo/Villa-Gomez): Got a belt-tightener in at Tampa Bay, now ships up here. Didn’t show any early speed at all in his races here last year, and in a race like this, that will not do him any favors.
TOP PICKS: 4-5-6
Race 8: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
1- Our Smokin Hero (Rozantz/M Allen): Came in second or third four times in a row to wrap up 2018. He’s had just one work this year, and his trainer is not very good with horses off the layoff. I’d wait till next time with him.
2- Thunder’s Rollin (Rojas/Morales): Ran at least a 77 five straight times last year, never missing the superfecta. Workouts this year have been solid. Expecting a good race first off the bench.
3- R Hot Twenty’s (Gonzalez/Spieth): Closed furiously last out at Mountaineer, making up twelve lengths in an eighth of a mile. I don’t think he’ll duplicate that here.
4- Tinitus (Markgraf/Stanley): He’s been bad on dirt and turf, why should synthetic be any better?
5- Amigo’s Affair (Bourke/Alencar): Look for him to set the early pace and quickly give way.
6- Ben Jacob (DePasquale/Delgado): Didn’t run a step in his dirt races at Mountaineer last year, but was slightly better on the turf. Betting him still requires a big leap of faith.
7- Adagio (Burhow/Vickers): He’s gone wildly off form in his last four races, and I don’t see why he’ll regain it here.
8- Save the Drama (S Radosevich/Villa-Gomez): Last year, he’d always prompt the pace before fading. He’s got two works under his belt as he prepares for his first start since September 30. His trainer isn’t showing a recent winner off a long layoff, so he might need this one.
9- Toast the Kitten (Rogers/Dominguez): Earned some strong figures last year against similar, including a last-out best of 79. Should work out a good trip rating on the outside.
TOP PICKS: 9-2-8