Happy PREAKNESS Day in Maryland!
Race 1: The Selima Stakes $150k 2 Year Old Fillies 1 & 1/16thM Turf
1st: #3 Invincible Gal, Graham Motion won this event last year with a little filly named Sharing who went on to Breeder’s Cup glory and multiple graded stakes wins so far this year at 3. This miss debuted a winner at Saratoga sprinting with a 71 Beyer at 6-1 and followed it up with a second place effort in the Sorority Stakes at Mth going a mile. Beyer regression to be sure but Motion seems undeterred and I’m guessing she’s going to appreciate even more distance. The sire Invincible Spirit has produced multiple graded stakes winners going long on turf including Digital Age and Speaking of Which here in the states.
2nd: #4 Domain Experience, Chad Brown/Klaravich filly who’s actually still a maiden earned a 69 Beyer in her debut at Sar going this distance. No doubt about her preference for the lawn based on breeding. Will be formidable.
3rd: #2 Golden Voice, Mike Maker sends this recent graduate to Pim off a win at Kentucky Downs where she earned her best Beyer figure of her three races. Improvement in all three and did her best going a mile last out as opposed to sprinting.
Race 2: The Grade 3 Gallorette Stakes $150k F&M 1 & 1/16thM Turf
1st: #1 Juliet Foxtrot, once thought of as one of the top turf fillies in America, this one just ran 4th in the Distaff Turf Mile at CD on Kentucky Derby day behind Beau Recall and Newspaperofrecord. Before that just a length behind Rushing Fall in the G1 Jenny Wiley. Just too classy for this field. She’s won at the G3 level before. Distance right in her wheelhouse.
2nd: #3 She’sonthewarpath, 4 year old filly definitely looks to be on the improve. She just earned her best career Beyer fig (95) over the soft turf at Kentucky Downs
3rd: #6 Storm the Hill, multiple G3 winner back in 2018 was shut out last year facing very stiff company all season. Perhaps has lost a step however and hasn’t been out since January. Guessing she needs a race or two.
Race 3: The Skipat Stakes $100k F&M 6F
1st: #5 Bye Bye J, G3 placed, this one has had a lot of stakes success though graded stakes glory has so far proved elusive. This is a quality field of stakes horses though none that really have graded stakes quality. There’s a ton of speed in this field and this one has done her best work when coming from slightly off the pace.
2nd: #1 Chalon, one time second place finisher in the BC F&M Sprint, her best days are likely behind her. That hasn’t stopped her from throwing up 2 wins in her last three with a second place effort. A win under her belt locally doesn’t hurt either.
3rd: #6 Bronx Beauty, nostalgic favorite of mine, watched her win the Dashing Beauty last year at Del, she’s two for her last four including a big win last out over Chad Brown’s graded stakes winner Royal Charlotte at Mth.
Race 4: The Hilltop Stakes $100k 3 Year Old Fillies 1M Turf
1st: #10 Shimmering, former trainee of legendary British trainer John Gosden, he thought highly enough of this filly to try the G1 1000 Guineas in June and attempted G3 company at Royal Ascot in July. Neither were very successful but it tells you a bit about the potential this one has. The guess here is that she’s a bleeder and needs Lasix, which is prohibited in the UK. She gets Lasix today for Graham Motion and gets John Velazquez to ride. The sire Lope de Vega has produced noted American turf fillies Newspaperofrecord and Capla Temptress Don’t think you’ll the 10-1ML at post time.
2nd: #2 Chart, took a while to figure out this one wanted the turf which became abundantly clear once Mark Cassee got her to win an allowance on the Tapeta synthetic surface at Woodbine before trying graded stakes company successfully. Remember, it’s Woodbine and there were only 6 horses in the field. Despite that this one clearly headed in the right direction and gets Florent Geroux today.
3rd: #3Caravel, this lightly raced filly has made enormous strides in each of her first three races going from 65 to 70 to 84 last out in terms of the Beyer. These waters are considerably tougher than anything she’s faced at Penn National or Presque Isle, nonetheless she looks to be a real speedball and will be a threat here.
Race 5: The Grade 3 Miss Preakness Stakes $150k 3 Year Old Fillies 6F
1st: #2 Wicked Whisper, $500k daughter of Liam’s Map looked like Asmussen’s next superstar filly when she won the G1 Frizette as a 2 year old. It’s been a rocky road since then, she hasn’t gotten to the leads that she did in her first two and the Beyer’s suffered dramatically. She’s not going to get the lead in this one, but in her last race she showed a closing kick for the first time, narrowly missing in the G3 CT Oaks. Clearly back headed in the right direction, can she sit off a very hot pace and pass late?
2nd: #5 Mundaye Call, was the even money favorite in the G2 8 Belles on Derby Day and was pressed hard and gave way after a 44.14 second first half mile. Could easily see the same thing happen here today with the amount of speed in this field.
3rd: #1 Ain’t No Elmers, improving filly deserves a chance here and has shown the ability to sit off a pace and pass horses. Already mentioned the considerable speed in this one, she will benefit.
Race 6: The Grade 2 Dinner Party Stakes $250k 1 & 1/16thM Turf
1st: #2 Somelikeithotbrown, no doubt which way this one is going to win if he indeed does; absolutely needs the lead and he was bad out of the gate and immediately shuffled back in the Turf Classic at CD last out. It was over in the first 3 jumps for him. So that makes his running line look awful as a whole and will drive up the odds. There’s some other speed in here he will have to contend with if he does get to the front including Factor This who nearly won the Turf Classic before surrendering just before the wire going a 1/16th farther than today. Give this one the nod with the expectation of a better price.
2nd: #7 Factor This, had the lead the whole way around in the Turf Classic and gave it up late, no guts! Obviously a top class horse, expect him and Somelikeithotbrown to duel all the way around.
3rd: #3 Hembree, the closer of the group, has earned over $700k but hasn’t won since early 2019. Really needs everything to go his way.
Race 7: The Grade 3 Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash Stakes $200k 6F
1st: #5 Landeskog, absolutely love this pattern; horse moves up the class ladder last year as a 3 year old and even pops a gigantic 108 Beyer in the G2 Gallant Bob at Parx. Moves into the Brad Cox barn and after a significant layoff he takes his first start at 4 in an allowance with another hefty figure. Guess is he wasn’t even really ready for his best there, will be sharp off that. The second place finisher in that one came back to win an AOC with a 91 Beyer. Best bet of the day here. Hope for 2-1.
2nd: #7 Stan the Man, about as honest a 6 year old gelding as they come, 4 for 10 since the start of 2019 with a couple seconds. He’s graded stakes placed including a second place finish just a length behind Firenze Fire in the G2 True North.
3rd: #6 Midtowncharlybrown, another honest 6 year old, this one is 11 for 24 lifetime including 9 for 16 at 6F. Just two efforts this year, the most recent even better than the first. Ready for his absolute best.
Race 8: The Laurel Futurity Stakes $150k 2 Year Olds 1 & 1/16thM Turf
1st: #1 Pivotal Mission, feels like an easy call here, this one hasn’t actually broke him maiden yet but that didn’t stop normally-conservative trainer Graham Motion from sending him to Kentucky Downs for the $500k Juvenile stake there and he narrow missed and earned a large pay day. Tries today again with Johnny V and puts the blinkers on. Son of Noble Mission and Galileo, you know the distance will be no problem.
2nd: #7 Catman, another maiden, this one was sent to Kentucky Downs to contest a maiden event where he narrowly missed, but increased his Beyer 35 points. More improvement likely, excellent turf pedigree.
3rd: #6 Arrest Me Red, Delacour colt broke his maiden at Laurel by a solid 4 lengths going short. Should have no problem stretching out to the two turns, but is cross-entered at Keeneland tomorrow, may end up there.
Race 9: The J. W. Murphy Stakes $100k 1M Turf
1st: #10 Don Juan Kitten, runner up in the G3 Saranac last month up at Sar after setting the pace and just narrowly getting passed at the wire. It was his third straight exceptional effort and came over soft going, which is likely to be somewhat how today’s turf course is playing. The two back allowance win is an extreme case where he fell behind 14 lengths early but came back with a vengeance to win driving.
2nd: #13 Bye Bye Melvin, the winner of the above mentioned Saranac, gotta think the soft turf allowed him to get past Don Juan Kitten and on a firmer turf he might not have been able too. Don’t think today’s turf will be soft though likely a good amount of give in it. That Saranac effort a bit of an outlier on the page.
3rd: #3 So Street, runner up in the Laurel Dash going short on the turf, really excited to see what this one will do given the full mile.
Race 10: The Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes $250k 3 Year Old Fillies 1 & 1/8thM
1st: #5 Bonny South, simply cannot make a good enough case against this one in this field. She’s been keeping by far the best company winning the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks and hitting the board in two subsequent G1s the Ashland a fading 4th behind Speech and Venetian Harbor and the Alabama a rallying 2nd behind Swiss Skydiver. There’s a considerable pace in this race and that should set her up well to come with a run. That 98 Beyer in the last effort just far and away the best in the field.
2nd: #8 Hopeful Growth, love the two back win in the G3 Monmouth Oaks rallying from a length behind to win by a stiff 4 lengths. No shame in getting beaten up on a bit by Shedaresthedevil and Swiss Skydiver in the Kentucky Oaks last out.
3rd: #9 Miss Marissa, very quick, will she be able to hold them off in this company? Probably not.
Race 11: The Grade 1 Preakness Stakes 3 Year Olds $1,000,000 1 & 3/16thM
1st: #10 Pneumatic, fresh off his best lifetime effort in the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth where he earned a 98 Beyer. The key today will be a contested pace for Authentic on the front end with both Art Collector and Swiss Skydiver allowing this one to make his run against tiring horses. Distance is a bit of a question but Asmussen knows when his horses are capable. The hotter the pace the better.
2nd: #9 Authentic, I still can’t shake the image of him absolutely staggering to the wire in the Haskell at 9F. Obviously in the Derby he showed a different element out battling Tiz the Law down the lane and maintaining his lead going longer than today’s distance, but he really was never challenged on the front end that day. Despite the honest fractions he had everything his way. The thinking is that Swiss Skydiver absolutely must go for the lead and Art Collector will be sitting right behind those two, so should make for a more challenging race for Authentic.
3rd: #3 Art Collector, three straight triple digit figs is no fluke, that effort in the Bluegrass to pass Swiss Skydiver and finish with authority was a site to behold. A little concerned about the two month layoff and he missed the Derby with a slight ailment. Hard to win off that in this group.
Race 12: The Grade 1 UAE President’s Cup $100k Arabians 4 Years Old and Up. 1 & 1/16thM
1st: #7 Quick Sand AA, a bit of an up and down year for this one so far, previous winner of this race in 2018 when it was at CD and multiple G1 winner. Just took the G1 Delaware Classic by 4 lengths.
2nd: #8 Rb Rich Lyke Me A, can’t resist a name like that, extremely hot at the moment just won at this distance by 11 lengths.
3rd: #6 Kissouur A, not sure what happened in the last race when he was immediately 43 lengths behind??? Just completely left behind and did no running. The two back was a win over the best in this group in allowance company.