1st: 1-6-8
Fulkerson was overmatched in starter allowance company last time but projects a ground-saving, forwardly placed trip today.
One Thirty Nine was used up dueling for the lead last time with Dangerfield, who is also in today’s race. Significant jockey switch for the former today to Santana.As McKnight is based in Woodbine over the summer, many of his horses like Monastrell are unproven on dirt. While I will concede that most everything from that barn is a contender, I’m reluctant to accept short odds on such horses.
2nd: 10-4-1
Last year’s maiden claimers at Oaklawn were a salty group, and the above three horses exit those races. Difficult to separate, but opting for Philly Boy. His last race is a
3rd: Too many 1As and 2Xs for me to handicap this race prior to knowing the scratches.
4th: no opinion
5th: 5-7-2Essie’s Reward has an unappealing 1 for 18 lifetime record, but was overmatched in many of her races. Today’s race appears to favor the closers.Summer Lovin had difficult post 12 last time versus many of these horses and is a logical contender at a low price.American Royal has better turf than dirt form but her closing style fits the race as I expect it to unfold.
6th: 7-2-6Malibu Pro had a nice vacation after Canterbury and a series of good workouts. Good price on a horse that was 3-1 or less in every race except one last year.Chris and Dave should attend a modest pace but his 0 for 6 record at Oaklawn is a red flag of sorts.Cool Arrow won his 2018 debut at Fair Grounds in somewhat similar circumstances and is a speed on the rail contender. I’m skeptical of horses with 2016 races still prominent in their running lines, though.
7th: 3-1-9 Reflector is an 8 year old horse stepping up in class off a losing race. Broberg’s actions say this horse is in good form.Both halves of the entry are contenders should both run. They faced each other several times last year with mixed results before becoming stablemates.Touch of Disney ran well enough last time, but I’m just not taking 3-1 on a 9 year old horse that has never won on dirt.
8th: 1-6-5Treble loves Oaklawn: 7: 3-2-2 here, 8: 0-3-0 everywhere else. Tough Irma’s last four races were routes, but all her wins are in sprints.Time and Chance chased runaway winner Three Chords last time and should contend today.
9th: 2-5-8More Moet Pleez was a brief pace factor opening day in what is shaping up to have been a tough field. Came back from dismal finish to post a sharp 5 furlong workout just a week later. Expecting improved stamina today.Tiz a Sharpie was overmatched versus straight maidens at Santa Anita. Fits with these.Oklahoma-bred Northern Dynasty may appreciate returning to a sprint.