Welcome back to the GenoG Challenge and today we are up against a fierce competitor in @PunterNavarre. A very good handicapper who will present a big challenge for myself but I’m ready to take it head on. Lets get to the selections:
Race 1
Top Selection: #1 Neil’s Diamond 6/1
Alternate Selection: #3 Tashreeh 4/1
One of the angles that I’ve really profited from this meet so far is speed drawn inside in a sprint. Thats what we have here with this runner for Norman McKnight. The McKnight barn has been sizzling to start this meet and his horses have been showing some serious early foot. Although there might be some early challenges on the front end, it has seemed that McKnight runners have been faster then all of them. Breaking from the 4 PP, I really like for this one to jump the gate with David Cohen in the irons and take them GTW to win the first at what SHOULD BE a decent price to start the day.
Race 2
Top Selection: #2 Tickle Bunny 2/1
Alternate Selection: #8 Sky Freak 6/1
Ricardo Santana and Steve Asmussen hook up with this runner who will be looking to break her maiden in career start number 10. I typically avoid these kinds of runners on a normal basis but her average speed figures over the last 6 are just to much to ignore against a group of runners that are extremely unaccomplished. On top of the running lines the trainer/jock combo has won 6 of their last 24, Steve off to a nearly 30% clip early this meet and off this particular layoff has won 4 in a row (including one runner from yesterdays card).
Race 3
Top Selection: #2 Sevier 3/1
Alternate Selection: #5 He’s So Jazzy 5/1
Again, another runner with speed drawn inside. I really like the move from the open 20 company to the 30NW move from Villafranco and Danny Caldwell. One would say “well he ran with the biased last time and didn’t win, why today”; the simple answer is the outside PP’s early on in this meet in sprints has just been tough to overcome with front end runners. I believe a little bit of a softer field perhaps, now parked inside for a very capable trainer/jock combo, this is all that was needed to get the job done today.
Race 4
Top Selection: #3 Lons Giant 20/1
Alternate Selection: #5 Vyera 8/1
In what I would consider perhaps one of the most wide open races of this card, I’m going to take a first time starter for Danny Pish that is 20/1 on the ML. This one has a slew of works dating all the way back to May of 2018 but the recent ones are the most important. I love the freshening gate drill last out 4f in :51.4 from the gate and then two works back 4f :49.4. Sire is 19% with FTS and Pish is 20% with FTS, 22% with Debut MdnClmers. There is a lot to like here and at this price… yes please!!!
Race 5
Top Selection: #7 Just Perfection 4/1
Alternate Selection: #8 Sheesa Pontiac 12/1
The success of Terry Thompson and Larry Jones can’t be dismissed here. I know it’ll be tough to beat the Sharp runner in here but I just really like this one for Jones who hasn’t done anything wrong since Jones found the respectable level in which this one needed to be at. It’s interesting to note that this one was bet down to 2.3/1 and was the favorite in debut at CD in a 56k MSW. Now in for the 40k tag after an amazing front running victory against Mcl15’s, I love the early foot this one showed and should be fresh off the 90ish day layoff. NOTE: back to back works are super impressive 2/3 5f 1:00.4 and 1/16 5f 1:01.4 BOTH here at OP. Will be tough.
Race 6
Top Selection: #1 Sweet Rhapsody 5/2
Alternate Selection: #4 Valiant Lady 4/1
Here we are again with a Norman McKnight runner drawn inside with speed. There is absolutely no chance you’ll get 5/2 on this runner today. This horse is more like 6/5-EVEN money type horse. Has run against better and last out just missed the break which can be completely tossed from this ones running lines. The three straight 80+ speed figures are either comparable or perhaps exceed the race rating today. If this one breaks with Cohen aboard, she will be gone at a very short price!
Race 7
Top Selection: #5 Royal Daaher 5/1
Alternate Selection: #6 Cowboy Diplomacy 3/1
Perhaps Cox is trying to sneak a big timer in this “weaker spot” to get a runner in the Arkansas Derby but I’m going to go with a runner for James DiVito who was impressive in defeat in debut. Going against MSW19k at Hawthorne (much weaker then here), this colt chased the speed all the way around and found himself giving way late as he was beaten by 2 1/4 lengths. Now, why bet this one back against tougher competition, easy and simple answer… the horse drew the rail in debut and if you know anything about Haw, that is completely dead!!!! Horse had no chance, was extremely tight on the break and still ran a 74 speed figure against basically everything there is as a FTS. With the Cox runner assumed to get all the money, watch for this one to float from 5/1 up to 10-12/1 today and I’ll be IN, BIG, on this one.
Race 8
Top Selection: #4 Bud’s Mr. B 12/1
Alternate Selection: #11 Guska Mon Shoes 5/2
Theres really not a lot to say about this race besides the fact that the extreme outside runners will be the two that get all the play and yet they’ll have to overcome such huge hurdles to get the job done today. ESPECIALLY the ML favorite who lacks speed. I went with the runner for Tim Dixon who, outside of his last two races, has speed figures that are comparable to some of the top runners in here. This one has shown some early foot in starts at Lad and Fmt which I think will be very important in here where there really lacks some serious early foot. I think if McMahon wants to be super aggressive on this one early, he could find himself a nice spot right outside of the rail runner who is coming off a near 9 month layoff. I really really like this race from a betting standpoint, although I have the 11 (ML favorite) as my second choice, I think this race is wide open to interpretation and could be bombers paradise.
Race 9
Top Selection: #3 Brave Dish 8/1
Alternate Selection: #6 Princess Z Ohsix 3/1
With my top selection, it’s all about the break. There are a lot of handicappers that won’t to avoid these type of runners because you will know in 5 strides whether you even have a chance or not. This one, MUST HAVE THE LEAD at first call. Breaking from the inside, showed speed last time out against a field a little tougher then the one she will face in here and faltered late. Now, freshened and has a slew of works on the OP track, I believe this runner for Kenny Smith will break on top and never look back going 6f today on the drop. NOTE: Smith is 17% with MSW -> MdnClm droppers, 15% with shippers, 12% off this particular layoff; get a big jock uptick with Birzer in the irons today. Pick.
I wish everybody the best of luck betting Oaklawn today. To stay up to date with selections, Pick4 tickets and some tri/super wagering, head over to my Twitter page @DaVilleKY32 for more. Best of luck to @PunterNavarre as well and if you want to see his selections, head over to his page where he has them posted. Thank you everybody and good luck!!!
– GenoG