Hey everyone, Bryan Doranski here for Friday at Oaklawn Park! Last week was pretty good considering, just being almost even. Last week this column had 7 out of 9 winners total, with the top picks going 3-1-1. A steer into the correct direction! This week we are going to come back and hammer out some big prices and get us back to where we need to be!
Last Week ago: 9-3-1-1 33.3% (5/9 ITM) ($18 wagered, $17.40 returned net -$0.60) $1.93 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Oaklawn 2020: 36-9-8-4 25.0% (21/36 ITM) ($72 wagered, $55.40 returned) net -$16.60) $1.53 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer-
Race 1
10K claimer here of horses that well umm, aren’t going to be racing in allowance company any time soon. This is a race where I like what could be the favorite, but being the first race of the day, let the tote guide us here. The 4 at a nice price will be the play, but if somehow the 8 floats up and stays 3-1, I will be all over him.
8 MEANBONE- A solid Broberg entry here with Mojica aboard. Horse should be able to sit off the lead and looks to be the only horse that wants to run late. I like the late pace the horse has shown previously and if the horse starts quicker than last out, could be right in the mix. 5/2 is a little off-putting on the morning line, so watch the price here. If it gets shorter than 9/5- the next horse might be the way to go!
4 BURTNJOE- Was running in big bigger company at Remington and Retama before last out at Oaklawn. Looked out classed and faded hard, perhaps needed the race for conditioning. Huge weight allowance today, and with a speed horse, that could help. If the price is right, a horse to consider here.
1 GUSKA MON SHOES- This gelding is short but looks to be a career next choice type of horse. Probably will be near the lead at a short price but something I think we can try to beat and this horse fades late.
Race 2
6 ELITE AND BIG- 3-year-old colt for McKnight here in 3rd start. Won in debut at Woodbine, then came to Oaklawn, stepped up in class and was obliterated. Was it the extra ½ furlong, or did the horse not like the track/surface? Looks like horse was never involved and didn’t care to be. At what should be a price here, for McKnight, I will take a chance on a horse that might have needed to get comfortable before showing his best.
8 BELMONT HILLS- From a pace standpoint and a horse that appeared to be ok after breaking maiden, just could not find a hole in allowance or higher claiming company. Drops back here to a reasonable spot, 3rd start post gelding. Ran 14 days ago, couldn’t drive home, if this is horse is going to win at Oaklawn for Al Cates, it is this spot or nothing.
11 CORRANA EN LIMEN- Diodoro entry here who is winning at 33% for the meet. Not the hottest jockey in the world in Richard, but I am willing to overlook that here. Broke maiden last out, so not the best look for me here, but I think the stats will support a win bet here. Looks to be chalky, so I wont be betting huge either way, as I do not think the value is here.
Race 3
Getting up to some horses of class here and this feels like a good filly race on paper. A lot of young horses that we will be seeing around the country this summer, so take some notes for later. Handicapping note- the 4 DENA’S BOLD MOVE- trying again to break maiden in 8th career start against some others trying for the 1st or 2nd time. I would be hard pressed to ever put money on a horse that is struggling like she is against a field of unknowns.
8 LORI’S EYES- Lost in debut to what I think will prove to be a decent field with the horse finishing behind her coming back for a win next out. I think De La Cruz learned that she can’t go that fast early and finish and will keep her back a touch and be ready for a finish and maiden breaker.
7 CIDER HOUSE- When VanMeter wants to win, he calls Cannon. Can you believe I just said that? This meet they are 3-2-1-0 for a handsome 5.00 ROI, so horse can be a price come Friday morning. Things I don’t like- not very good with debut horses and that is a problem here. The pedigree I am fine with but question the workouts also.
6 LOVELY LOU- Oh this horse…Should be able to sit back from the pace and finish strong, I just wonder if this horse is going to be below even money and no good for me. Looks primed to win in 2nd start but at this price I will pace.
Race 4
This race might be the best one of the day for open company at this price level. I could make arguments for about 5 horses, and I really hope we get some help when scratches come out.
7 JUNIOR GILLIAM- This gelding has been running well since being claimed from Holldendorfer and I really like the effort we saw on Feb 14. Was close to the lead the whole time just couldn’t finish, but I can forgive that loss. Garcia does not stay aboard and moves to the 1, so that is a little concerning mostly because Loveberry is not getting the job done going 3/58 for the meet. This horse could be best underneath for verticals, but I will take a shot.
1 KNIGHTS KEY- So I mentioned that Garcia moved to the 1, and I like the move. Healthy ML at 10-1 but I think the workout that this horse had last week was a nice step forward perhaps showing the horse likes Oaklawn. I will take a solid jockey and a horse that worked out well at double digits.
6 COAL TRUTH- Every time I write Diodoro I feel guilty at Oaklawn, and this horse is no different. What is different for this horse is the strategy that they will employ. This horse has been up and down since getting claimed and it has not worked. Cohen stays up here and I would like to believe that they let this horse dictate what he wants to do. Some back class there for this 5-year-old and plenty of energy in the tank. 9-2 ML could give a betting opportunity.
Race 5
10 ROCKTHE PULPIT- Danny Pish entry today making 2nd career start, with solid workouts at Retama leading into today. Horse had some speed and showed it could finish. Was nervous in debut and did not want to load into the gate, hopefully that is gone, and horse is able to stay calm and finish today for Eramia.
3 HOT IRON- So if you haven’t been able to tell yet, I like when jockeys stay on mounts, even losing efforts, because perhaps they just followed instructions. Felix stays here for Swearingen, and the horse looked ok last out in that losing effort. No one in this field is looking to be the best on paper, so I will look for an improvement here and a win- take what we can get and move on.
5 MY SUGAR TOWN- Last out race was quick and this horse didn’t really get a fair shake. I think this horse takes a step forward, albeit small today and can win if the pace works for him. Birzer is not exactly Pay Day, so if the tote gets short, pull the cord and look elsewhere.
Race 6
4 TIZ APPROVED- So the trainer stats for debut horses is not impressive and neither is the DAM for first time starters, but I cannot look past these workouts. Unfortunately for us, the recent ones were on a sloppy track but gives a good indication that the horse is at least versatile and is coming in on a decent form. Why the layoff from Jan 31 to Feb 20th though? Reported Gelded as of 2/23, so judging with the workouts, it was probably closer to the beginning of February. Worth a chance at 8/1 ML.
3 WILD POPIT- This horse improved nicely from debut to last out and stands to reason another small step forward here makes a lot of sense. They are staying in the same company, so connections have ideas and desires for this horse. Was bumped at the start and wide late so perhaps a better trip and the horse breaks maiden today.
Race 7
2 TIZ ALLUPTOME NOW- Santana Jr aboard and we have to excuse last out’s effort if we can. Horse didn’t seem to want to race that day and it showed with the effort, worst performance in almost 2 years’ time. Has won at Oaklawn before with Santana and Asmussen, so this spot makes sense for the horse. Should give us a good price point.
3 IMMA BLING- Short horse here and probably deserves to be so. Got Lanerie off this horse so I feel better about it, but with only 10 wins in 48 career starts, I have a hard time putting money here. To be quite honest if this 2 scratches, I will probably not have any personal money on this race.
7 BATTLE STATION- Connections have this horse all over, including circuits and company levels as they look for somewhere to run apparently. Has not won since July 2018 and has good jockeys aboard along the travels. Not a huge fan of the horse here, but one that I think must cover with if playing horizontals.
8 CONTROL STAKE- I feel like this horse has been declining and might need some help to get in the winner’s circle. Luckily for them there is plenty of speed here and this horse does not need to exert it early. A calm relaxed ride from Cohen and can on the 2nd start from layoff.
Race 8
3 BLUE MOONRISE- Last month this horse went way too fast early and was done before even seeing the ½ pole. Expected a calmer effort here with Santana aboard and a nice juicy ML because of it. Let’s hope we can keep some value here and get a solid price.
9 RAHWAY- So this horse would be top pick if it wasn’t for Vazquez on the mount. Nothing wrong but never know what you’re going to get on a horse that has shown speed. If he can control this horse and keep in a nice stalking spot, this horse can win today. Not much price here but if we can hold around the ML, that can be a nice return.
Race 9
3 STARSHIP- This race seems to have a lot of early pace here, and I am not sure if I want to be messing with this horse who will be part of that, but the price should be decent for this 8 year old gelding.
7 MO GOTCHA- Short price here for this 4 year old gelding, but should be able to sit just off the pace and attack when need to. Englehart should have this one ready today and Mojica is usually finding a way to get in good position. Good workout pattern given this layoff that I actually like but, expect it to be short though.
9 CABERTOSS- Norm McKnight has been doing well at Oaklawn so I have to include this horse in any multirace wagers. Hill and McKnight hitting at 28% so, worth it here, 9/2 ML should be able to give some price to us. Decent pedigree for this field