Oaklawn Park Racing Analysis — Thursday, March 28, 2019, by Stewart Winograd

1st: 6-3-7
Count Ur Bless’n showed some run from pp 12 in her Oaklawn debut.  Obscure connections less of a concern in Arkansas-bred maiden claiming company.
R Marie has shown sharp early speed from outside posts and could benefit from an inside draw.
Livertadora could improve in her second lifetime start.


2nd: 2-6-1
Nothing imaginative here.  Color Me Pretty has won multiple starter allowance races and the conditions allow her to keep doing so.
Racey Reecey has come up short versus the top choice twice.
Icy Dawn gets the rail and trainer Cleborad is due to improve on 1-for-40 meet stats.  Last year she won five races at Oaklawn and the year before, six.


3rd: 2-5-3
Essie’s Reward is only 1 for 19 lifetime, but that one win was her only try at six furlongs.  New trainer Broberg might be onto something with the distance cutback.
Miss Perdido Key has shown good early speed at the meet against straight 3 year olds and might find tougher going against older but is a nice price.
Awesome Day looks good on paper but has too many seconds and thirds versus wins for a horse with a front-running style.


4th: 1-10-11
Burtnjoe was part of an entry in which both halves had early speed in his last race.  He was uncustomarily slow from the gate but I don’t think the situation called for him to be asked for more.
Smellin Candy exits the same race and was fighting for the lead in that one early.
Hamazingly Rich improved last out while racing wide and is a contender at a price.  This is a wide-open race and several others have good chances too.


5th: 7-9-12
Blended Lute raced off the pace last time but was closer to the pace in his other Oaklawn races.  Expecting a return to previous running style.
Gotta Curlin has been facing slightly better.
Serengeti was once thought to be a Derby contender after breaking his maiden by 11 lengths at Del Mar for Bob Baffert.  That was two years ago and his first race remains his best.


6th: 11-1-6
D’urban Park has to overcome wide post, but has the most races versus open company of any of these horses.
Aviator Parks can run forever but is usually timed with a sundial.  Has a sharp workout, blinkers off, jockey switch, rail.
Candy My Boy is a logical contender.


7th: no opinion
8th: no opinion


9th: 7-6-10
Bogey has been sprinting versus multiple winner Guska Mon Shoes but probably prefers two turns.
Promising Shoes was brilliantly eligible for this $91,000 purse by running for a claiming tag versus similar in his last out win.
Tapit Star and P C Suspect are a couple of sprinters who will make their presence felt for a long time but probably need a speed bias to hang on all the way.

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