Oaklawn Park Racing Analysis — Thursday, March 19, 2020, by Dennis Trusty

Please pray for Alex Canchari’s brother Patrick Canchari who had a terribly horrific critical condition car wreck this week. I know Alex, I am personal friends with him just send him and his brother your thoughts and prayers during this tough time and hope for a speedy recovery. This is his go fund me account just in case, the poor guy has a long road ahead for recovery and I echo this from all of us at The Daily Gallop get well soon..

.https://www.gofundme.com/f/patrick-canchari-recovery-fund?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=p_cp+share-sheet

With that said:

Welcome to the zombie apocalypse edition of The Daily Gallop, we’re here as the world burns. We’re gonna talk about Oaklawn for Thursday. Ladies and gentlemen yes, it is a miserable edition of The Daily Gallop but it’s a pleasure to be here for this end of the world edition of Oaklawn. And if you don’t like my stuff and don’t want to read my stuff for a minute you can go screw yourself cause we’re all quarantined, and you don’t have anything else to do. So, let’s get on with the show cause the show must go on.

Race 1 6 Furlongs Clm 25000 Purse $41,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs., Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since January 19, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000 (Races Where Entered For $16,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances) Post Time: 2:30/( 1:30)/12:30/11:30

4 Mucha Mezquina 4-1 a speed ball going long, now backing up to sprinting. Also drops WAY down in class from allowance and some claiming 40,000 down to claiming 25. I hope she shows the speed she was showing long but if she wants to sit a stalking trip like she previously did in the sprints then that’s fine with me.

3 Final Form 5-2 last ran the day before the Preakness where she was favorite and ran a hard trying 2nd. She can be blistering quick and with the layoff she could really show speed. My problem with her is since she is off the long layoff, she could go out and run herself ragged, and then quit in the end. And with the fact that there could be 3 speed horses…

2 Shaharazad 9-2 could there be a pace meltdown she could close and tear their heads off down the stretch. I don’t like Paulina Ramirez on closers but she ran good on her, so with Richard Eramia aboard she might close really good.

Selections 4-3-2

Bets $2 win & place 4($4)

Race 2 6 Furlongs MC 25000 Purse $32,000 FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs., Older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000 (Three Year Olds Preferred) Post Time: 2:58/( 1:58)/12:58/11:58

4 Dehydration 5-2 claimed by John Sadler from the Maker barn when she was 5-2 last time. I think they are both about the same. As a first time starter I bet Maker didn’t expect to lose this horse, she made a brazen middle move and then seems to me she hung in the stretch.

5 Unsweet Tea 6-1 I think that as good as I think Chel-c Bailey could be, I think she might not know as much tricks that Jon Court might know. But the weight off could help this horse perform better, especially after 12 starts and no wins.

3 Alena Marie 2-1 I don’t like the fact that she dropped down to 32,000 at Indiana and couldn’t win, then dropped in for the turf. It’s like they know the horse is a claimer, sprinter and just not that good. So why is this horse 2-1 because people see speed for maiden special weight, I see a horse that is a loser.

Selections 4-5-3

Bets $3 win & place 4($6)

Race 3 6 Furlongs. Clm 25000 Purse $41,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs., Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since January 19, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000 (Races Where Entered For $16,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances) Post Time: 3:26/( 2:26)/ 1:26/12:26

7 Dichotomy 5-2 I love the comment, I’ve never seen a comment like this “kicked down leader” that to me is STRONG. Other than that this Cali bred hasn’t done anything that impressive but that one race has me convinced enough.

3 Adheretome 3-1 M & M Racing picks this one up off the claim for 16,000 now raising up. The trainer first off claim is 25%, 32 % with a claim repeater. Randy Morse turned this horse around when he claimed it for 20,000 and then allowance at Turfway where she ran 4th, then won for 25,000 at Oaklawn and 16,000 at Oaklawn where she was claimed.

8 Fabulous Girl 12-1 I think if your trying to find a price horse this could be it. Every time she was in for a claiming race she is 3-2-0-1. Went 4 wide last time and I think has every chance to turn the tide on the 1 horse.

Selections 7-3-8

Bets $3 win & place 7($6)

Race 4 1 1/16th Mile. Alw 92000n2x Purse $92,000 FOR ARKANSAS BRED (WHICH QUALIFY UNDER RULES GOVERNING ARKANSAS-BREDS) THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs., Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 19, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs Post Time: 3:54/( 2:54)/ 1:54/12:54

3 Whenthedovescry 2-1 this horse just fits so perfectly in this condition. Ran well for this condition the last 2 races and I think could be a single on most tickets.

4 Promising Shoes 10-1 2nd off the layoff ran decent here last year for this tag and then went to Prairie Meadows and did okay then took a small break. Now I think could be back in decent form for this race.

8 Lieutenant Powell 4-1 seems like this horses trainer had this meet well in his head when he claimed him. I like when connections do that, and since he was first off the claim 2 back he put in for a waiver to get his money back. Then tried allowance company and ran 3rd for state bred, I think this is the main challenger to the 3 but if he doesn’t get going quick enough I don’t know if he can catch the 4.

Selections 3-4-8

Bets $1 exacta box 1,3 2,3 3,4 3,8 3,9($10)

Race 5 6 Furlongs. MC 40000 Purse $42,000 FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 121 lbs. Claiming Price $40,000, if for $35,000, allowed 3 lbs Post Time: 4:23/( 3:23)/ 2:23/ 1:23

6 Collude 5-2 this Asmussen horse is just looking at me off the page and screaming, “I shouldn’t be a maiden, what am I doing here?” Hasn’t been higher than 5-1 in 5 starts with 2 2nd’s and 2 3rd’s. Now 2nd time in for a claiming tag could be the day today.

8 Whoville 5-1 was in for maiden 25,000 last time and ran her best race so it tells me either they fixed the horse or they know how to run the horse. Because that is the only reason a maiden would be raising back up in class for a higher price. Also, since she is a May foal she might be getting to that mature level that she was lacking earlier in her career.

4 Javistha 5-1 first time in for a claiming tag is a huge angle for me. Even though Prairie Meadows doesn’t have the strongest maiden class still technically a drop in class. If she runs the race she ran 2 or 3 races ago she is a threat in here. The layoff could hurt her as well.

Selections 6-8-4

Bets $3 win & place 6($6) $1exacta box 1,6 4,6 6,7 ,6,8 6,9($10)

Race 6 6 Furlongs. Clm 25000 Purse $41,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Weight, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 19, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since January 19, 2020 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000, if for $20,000, allowed 2 lbs. (Races Where Entered For $16,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances) Post Time: 4:52/( 3:52)/ 2:52/ 1:52

9 Sevier 5-2 was claimed for 50,000 4 races ago out of the Cipriano Contrares barn, then was into an allowance race ran decent. Then hopped into stakes and got beat bad, then in for 50,000 and ran a hard trying 3rd. Then starter allowance win for 25,000. He has the class on the field, looks like the right horse on paper. If something is negative it’s why wouldn’t you put the horse back in starter 25,000?

6 Kowboy Karma 4-1 Steve Asmussen is 22% off the claim, and I said the 9 has the class of the race I am wrong, this horse has the class of the race. Just going to say the difference he was in for 20,000 last time and didn’t run good at ALL I mean ran good at the end but should haven’t been in that situation in the first place.

1/1A 3-1 if either one of the partners run like they are supposed to they could be right there for M & M Racing. The 1 didn’t need to be in for 40,000 but it was a free chance and they just said oh well. Came

back for this level and he won like he was supposed to, like how the 6 was supposed to run. The 1A doesn’t win but runs decent when in for the 20,000 condition.

Selections 9-6-1

Bets $3 win & place 9($6) $1 exacta box 1,6,9($6) And hope the 10 doesn’t beat you.

Race 7 1 1/16th Mile. Alw 90000n1x Purse $90,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Weight, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since January 19, 2020 Allowed 3 lbs. A Race Since November 19, 2019 Allowed 6 lbs Post Time: 5:21/( 4:21)/ 3:21/ 2:21

4 All West 4-1 has good back blood, Tapit and Storm Cat blood on the back end. Lost all hope at the start of the first race then stretched out broke much better and learned a lot and won. This horse they took their time with him and it might have paid off for Wayne Catalano.

2 Comedian 9-2 this horse is at least will give us what we need right now, a laugh. It’s difficult to close at the last 3 tracks he has been to, Remington Park, Santa Anita, and Ellis Park I rarely see closers come from out of it at those three tracks. The Churchill race was difficult, so after I see that this horse needs either a track that’s going to help him, OR a class drop enough. Hell, even both wouldn’t be hurt but other than that he has a chance in here.

5 Proverb 5-2 apparently Richard Baltas can’t train a dirt horse. They bought him for 220,000 in 2019 took them a few months to get him to the track, one good race then another few months and nothing. If the horse bounces back I think that he can win. If not, get rid of Baltas and get Baffert, Sadler, anyone for dirt other than Baltas.

Selections 4-2-5

Bets $2 win & place 4($4)

Race 8 1 Mile. OC 50000n2x Purse $92,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. Weight, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Other Than Maiden Or Claiming Since February 19, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. Such A Race Since January 19, 2020 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $50,000 Post Time: 5:51/( 4:51)/ 3:51/ 2:51

3 Home Run Trick 3-1 since they stretched him out from 6 furlongs to 1 mile and up no one can catch him in the first ¾’s. It’s going to be a sprint to the finish if he gets an remotely easy lead which he could not a ton of blazing speed signed on. Could say so long suckers to this field at the top of the lane.

7 Rotation 7-2 I talked about the best speed ball in this race now a horse that is the best closer in the field. Asmussen has a horse that won the Grade 3 Louisiana Super Derby and hasn’t been out since September 19th. A home bred out of Tapit, so I think Steve is going to have him fit and ready despite the layoff. This is my biggest money maker angle against is stakes horses coming off a layoff that ran 1-2-3 in

a stakes race and now in a layoff, and I still like this horse a little bit and am not screaming to play against. That should tell how good this horse could be here.

6 My Sixth Sense 4-1 claimed 2 races ago for Steve Hobby from Maker where the horse came out of 50,000 claiming and won an allowance race. Ran an okay 3rd last time which tells me Hobby had him ready for one race, or he had trouble cause they went so fast. It says traffic in both turns so that’s an excuse.

Selections 3-7-6

Bets $3 win & place 3($6) $1 exacta 3,7-1,3,5,6,7,10($10)

Race 9 6 Furlongs. MC 16000 Purse $25,000 FOR ARKANSAS BRED (WHICH QUALIFY UNDER RULES GOVERNING ARKANSAS-BREDS) MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs., Older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $16,000 Post Time: 6:19/( 5:19)/ 4:19/ 3:19

6 Tapit Right 4-1 ran decent last time and now drops in class if she runs the same race, she could be hard to handle here. If she runs any of the other races, she won’t be in contention. And for the fact nothing else stands out here I am almost forced to take this horse.

4 Luck’s Good Girl 6-1 flashed early speed last time out for maiden special’s state bred, then went from 2nd to last like the virus and dropped to last and was eased. Now how is this horse 6-1 off a 0 speed figure and being 78-1 and only flashing a brief speed is beyond me. But that tells you the kind of field we are dealing with, the best of the best!

3 Lucindanshady 10-1 has the best Arkansas bred trainer I can think of in Ernie Witt and if anyone can get a horse to run for this condition its him. I like how she flashed speed and at least held it for a second unlike the 4, just backed up for a lower condition. Was 7-2 last time and got beat by a bit and the 6 ran that 3rd place effort in the race.

Selections 6-4-3

Bets maybe none if I was going to $2 win & place 6($4)

Total 78…

I want to thank you for reading this, I hope this either earns you money gives you enjoyment or just takes your mind off the world. I want to say too I am doing a Win Place & Show contest tonight for Turfway Park, it’s free for fun and bragging rights and to take your mind off the coronavirus and being cooped up in your house. You can dm me your selections it’s for anyone please come be apart of this!

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