Analysis & Bets for Oaklawn Park on Thursday February 6th 2019
Supposed to have rain all week leading up to Thursday according to Google (on Monday) on Thursday the we got partly cloudy mid to low 40’s with a small chance of rain. I expect the track to be muddy unless things change.
Race 1 Maiden Claiming 16,000 fillies and mares 3yo and up 1 Mile and a 16th
1 Spectacular Temper/ 1A Viva La Secreta 7-2 Karl Broberg is 27% off the claim which he is doing with both of these horses. The 1 got claimed from Dallas Stewart as a 2 year old the only time she was in for a tag in her young career, where she finished 2nd and closed nicely for 15,000 dollar tag. The 1A is coming out of the same race and her trip was totally different, showed a ton of speed which could complement her partners style well. If they go too slow she will hang on, if they go too fast the 1 could close. Got claimed from Bret Calhoun the 2nd time she was in for a claiming tag but the first time she showed speed which tells me that is her level. WATCH FOR SCRATCHES just saying. My main drawback is 3 year olds v older.
6 Elevententeetime 5-1 Steven Asmussen claimed her at Keeneland for 15,000 from Brendan Walsh and came back with her at Turfway, where I think he has an experiment gone wrong for his barn as long as with many other bigger trainers. So, he shipped her away from the all weather, taking her back around 2 turns and I think the price is right for her.
4 Little Slew 10-1 rallied on last time to out in the lone start at Remington, hasn’t been out since September so either this horse had to go back through more training or had a small injury. I think it’s a little bit of both I think Donnie Von Hemel tried to figure her out a bit and after a bit of a setback in the work tab from November to December she could run a much-improved race.
Selections 1-6-4
Bets $3 win and place 1($6)
Race 2 Claiming N2L for 10,000 for 4 year olds and up going 1 Mile and a 16th
9 Picture Painted 30-1 only time he was in for a claiming price he won. It was Okie bred at Remington was bet down to 8-1 and closed in nicely as good as you could want. This is a bad race and the field is primed for a price, I feel like a sales man trying to sale a knock off item. As far as speed figs go, I wouldn’t play this horse but I don’t believe in them often and with that said the last race was enough to convince me in this field to take a shot.
6 War Veteran 5-1 Alex Canchari finished 2nd with him for Ron Moquett for the same type of race. Alex stays on and this is the most “logical” horse to me in the race as far as trying to pick the winning horse. My major problem is he got beat by Rickhouse, that horse is a Gary Hartledge horse and let me just say that he is slower than a turtle-sloth-snail mix, never mind how ugly that animal would look just focus on the slow part!
7 Wrath 8-1 will sit a perfect trip with Declan Cannon winning by 7 lengths at CD for maiden 15 and though impressive winning by that much went 1:47 and change. I would take that though comparing getting beat to RIckhouse, ehh I just hope the 6 had an off day that day haha! Last time seems to me was just the best horse in the race and could have came from where ever on the track today needs to show speed I think to give the horse the best chance but could sit 3rd or 4th and pounce.
Selections 9-6-7
Bets $2 win $6 show 9($8)
Race 3 Claiming 25,000 for 4 Year Olds and Up 6 Furlongs
8 Rockshaw 4-1 hasn’t ran since Ellis Park on a 2nd place finish behind the 6 Tres Equis where the time off might have helped this horse. I classify him as an “Oaklawn Wolf” where there are some horses that just prepare for Oaklawn only and all the other tracks they don’t really care about. Each race is a 1:09-1:10 range so I think that he can win this race today for that major reason.
1 Recount 3-1 drop way down in class for Broberg where he is 26% when first time in for claiming, Alex Canchari doesn’t love Oaklawn but that was for higher class level and is well capable for doing some major damage in this level. If not then the horse probably gets claimed and a bad horse gets out of the Broberg barn, and that is a risk that I am willing to take.
2 Rockys Warrior 9-2 now in for Chris Hartman from Pennsylvania. I don’t know what FMTWIN sale is but was bought for 30,000 in it in 2019, maybe they just got this horse? He is a speed ball that if the track is drying up he could hold on to win but I don’t think that will be the case according to the weather. I do think he can hang on for a piece of things however.
Selections 8-1-2
Bets $1 exacta 1,8-1,2,6,8($6)
Race 4 Arkansas Bred Maiden Claiming 20,000 3 Year Old and Up 6 furlongs
3 Thornish 5-1 Ron Moquett again, he has prepped a lot of first time starters for Oaklawn I have seen so far and Santana gets on again. The dam has had 4 starters and 3 winners including 1 stakes winner I believe he has been prepping for Oaklawn since September and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is bet down so watch the toteboard. Again, though my problem is a 3 year old.
5 Call Me Derby 4-1 another Oaklawn Wolf hasn’t been out since the winter meeting, was a favorite multiple times last year. Class is in question was in for 12,500 a few times and hasn’t been out in a bit which I am not worried about but you can make that a knock against.
10 Explosive Shoes 3-1 the youngest horse in the race, being a May foal. Ran in a 5 horse field and flashed speed at Hawthorne and tried to hang on and didn’t do a bad job. Just I think needs another race or two before really getting going. Lastly 3 to 1 isn’t a good price on this horse.
Selections 3-5-10
Bets $2 win and place 3($4)
Race 5 Claiming 8,000 for horses that are 4 Year Olds and Upward That Haven’t Won Since October 6th 2019 Going 1 Mile & 16th
5 Mucho Macho Dan 4-1 off the claim for Robertino Diodoro who is 25% off the claim. And even though could fit in at Turfway, since he hasn’t won in a year. He has been close with 3 2nd place efforts and 4 shows. Looking to get over the hump in the best barn I think the horse has ever been in, could very well do that.
4 Satellite 7-2 hasn’t won since September 20th at Indiana Grand came from last and swooped the field ran for 5,000 and won by 2 and a quarter lengths. Came back at Keeneland and got beat by a nose after taking the lead in the stretch from the Geo Garcia barn to Steve Asmussen. Ran horrible at Churchill but that is okay was over the horse’s head, now back in a respectable spot could run a big one here!
8 Sumner 9-2 had a terrible trip last time with bumped 7-½ 3w 2nd 5w ¼ at Fair Grounds got beat by the 4, 2 races ago in the Geo Garcia barn. Before that was in the Joe Sharp barn and had a lengthy layoff. Was in the hands of Pletcher and Diodoro before and nothing much happened with him. This horse seems like a money burner sadly but a money earner for 2nd and 3rd place.
Selections 5-4-8
Bets $2 win and place 5($4) $1 exacta 4,5-1,4,5,8,9,10($10)
Race 6 Starter Allowance for Horses 4 Years Old and Up That Have Started for A Claiming Price of 25,000 or less in ONE OF THEIR LAST TWO STARTS! Going 1 mile, I want to start this by saying I love starter races and try to find out what every horse did for that price listed…
7 Arrival 8-1 might get a perfect set up and won for similar conditions in the last start. Only reason why he fits is because of the last start, that is the only time he was in for 25,000 or less. Was an 800,000 purchase, which really doesn’t matter at this point because everyone is virtually a 25,000 dollar purchase. Also, the horse seemed to run his best race in a long time closing off the pace instead of going to the lead.
12 Hardly a Secret 9-2 the post is a killer going 1 mile right into a turn. Both times in for 25,000 won them, then got claimed if you don’t count last year in April which the condition doesn’t but gamblers do but he ran a respectable 3rd. I just really don’t like the post going this distance if he had an extra 16th or 8th wouldn’t mind it, but nope right into the turn and could possibly be the best horse.
5 Lookin for Eight 4-1 was claimed 2 races ago for 25,000 from Mark Casse to Norman McKnight and that was the only time he was in that cheap. I am just worried that he is a poly/turf horse even though he won at Oaklawn last year for allowance company that was last year and I only care about what the horse did for 25,000. He ran 2nd last time out for 40,000 and a lot of gamblers would look at that race but I don’t cause that influences betting thinking because he ran for a bigger tag that means something and I have learned if a horse ran for allowance 62,500 and won and they show up for starter 25,000 that normally isn’t a good sign but too you should only consider what the horse did for that price.
Selections 7-12-5
Bets $2 win $6 show 7($8)
Race 7 Arkansas Bred 3 Year Olds and Up Which Have Never Won 13,500 Other Than Maiden Claiming or Starter or Which Have Never Won 2 Races Going 6 Furlongs
4 Souixper Charger 9-2 hasn’t been out since Oaklawn last year where he faced state breds 1 time and won by 4 lengths as a heavy favorite. Ran against Super Steed and Boldor at 65-1 at Keeneland and I wouldn’t even pay any attention besides the horses he faced. 6 works and 1 of them being a 59 and change tells me he is ready to comeback and run huge.
8 Piece of Work 4-1 dominated an open field of maidens at Remington Park in a field of 11 and set the pace and never looked back. Is a 3 year old which concerns me. Just could be the best horse in this field cause it doesn’t seem like it would take much to win this race and a horse that is 1 for 1 is a must use and the most dangerous horse in horse racing.
5 Whenthedovescry 7-2 came in from Laurel and ran a hard fought 3rd for starter open 16,000 at Oaklawn which seemed to be a prep for this race today. Now in a better fit could run huge here and could possibly draw away (8 horse forbidding maybe).
Selections 4-8-5
Bets $3 win and place 4($6) $1 exacta 4,8-2,4,5,6,8,11,12($12)
Race 8 Starter Allowance 25,000 for Fillies and Mares 4 Years Old and Up That Have Started for A Claiming Price of 25,000 Or Less In 2018-2019 Going 6 Furlongs and kind of like the other starter allowance race I am only looking at the races where they was in for said price and what they did. That is my handicapping technique.
10 Ready to Runaway 9-2 Could possibly be the best Minnesota bred I have ever seen! With a record of 8-5-2-1 and fits in the race because of 1 start where she won by 7 lengths and went off .20 cents to the dollar. Ran 3rd at Keeneland for allowance 100k optional and is very quick and proved it at Keeneland. Might be the sneakiest horse of the meet and if she wins here watch her all meet long!
6 Wholehearted 4-1 the logical horse in the race only been in for 25,000 3 times as far as I can see, had a record of 3-1-2-0 and close 2nd place finishes at that. Coming off the claim from Cipriano Contreras to Robertino Diodoro, and I don’t know if he can improve her, but he can keep her running the same and that is all she needs to do to be competitive here. My main worry is she doesn’t win a lot of races but she runs 2nd and 3rd a ton with a record of 30-3-5-11 and an Oaklawn record of 7-0-2-3 could win but a for sure use underneath. @sak_shoes heres your Sak Show Selection for the day!
4 Pretty Greeley 4-1 the class of the field exiting graded stakes races my problem is she ran for allowance optional 25,000 and ran 2nd hard trying and hard fought. She should have won that race though no excuse, they went 2 seconds slower than what she is used to going therefor she should have won that race.
Selections 10-6-4
Bets $2 win and place 10($4) $1 exacta 6,10-2,4,6,9,10,11($10)
Race 9 Maiden Special Weight 3 Year Olds And Upward Going 1 Mile And 16th
2 Stretford End 7-2 how is this horse still a maiden?? Was a 600,000 purchase, has terrible breeding in my opinion Will Take Charge and Grand Slam mare so to me he showed something in the ring and that’s why the price was so high. Out of 7 starts had 5 2nd’s and a 3rd and got beat by Improbable by a neck in his first start.
14 Copper King 4-1 if this horse gets in he will be tough, but he has to get in first. A 625,000 purchase out of Medaglia d’Oro and Smart Strike mare has never been off the board in 5 stars and has a nice closing kick (I want to see sometime what this horse does if he gets the lead).
5 Hidden Talent 5-1 worked 4 bullets before the debut in November so that tells me he got hurt as a 2 year old or an early 3 year old and they couldn’t get him right until late 3 year old. Wayne Catalano riding Joe Talamo which is interesting to me because it’s not Channing Hill. Showed speed first time out and stopped could possibly keep going this time on a 2nd time out.
Selections 2-14-5
Bets $3 win and place 2($6) $1 exacta if 14 is in, 2,14-2,8,11,12,13,14($10) if not $1 exacta box 2,8 2,11 2,12 2,13($8)
Total $90… I am trying to hit at least 2 or 3 exacta’s if I hit in race 2 then I get a homerun and a walk off at that