The weather looks identical to last week rain all week long and drying up on Thursday aka race day Post time is at 1:30 central time.
Race 1 1ˆ1/16th Mile. Alw 50000s Purse $50,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS OR WHICH HAVE BROKEN THEIR MAIDEN IN A STATE BRED RACE AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES.
Starting off this card with one of my favorite conditions as a handicapper, I love starter allowance conditions and how I handicap them is I look for horses for what they did for when they ran for 50,000 or less or starter allowance 50,000 not allowance.
4 Mutineer 9-5 the West Coast invader ran 3rd in a So Cal starter allowance for 50,000 and fits perfectly in here. Deserving favorite, coming in off what I consider a prep sprint race now going back long again should help him. When he ran for 50,000 or less, he ran 2nd, 2nd and a 1st every time he was 5-2 or less.
1 Sonny Smack 3-1 fits okay in here I think 2nd best fitting here ran 4th for 40,000 last time and that is the only reason why he fits in this race today. I normally like a horse knocking on the door like he has done, running a multiple 2nd and 3rd and 4th place finishes for higher company. But I think he has run and gotten beat too many times and see this as a negative as too many close calls and this horse now lacks the confidence to go by the last horse.
2 Gangly 5-1 has the most potential here coming into the Ron Moquett barn for the first time and picks up leading jockey Ricardo Santana and hasn’t ran for a claiming price. So how does he fit in this race?? State bred running in Florida and he won in his 2nd career start and tried stakes which is more than any other horse has done in this race. I just dislike that he is the youngest horse in the race and the only 3 year old.
Selections 4-1-2
Bets $1 exacta box 1,4 2,4 4,6($6)
Race 2 6 Furlongs. MC 16000 Purse $24,000 FOR ARKANSAS BRED (WHICH QUALIFY UNDER RULES GOVERNING ARKANSAS-BREDS) MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.
In these types of races I like horses that can improve or hasn’t done anything wrong yet. I also like if you go back last year the types of trainers that have a lot of Arkansas bred horses.
9 Millie’s an Angel 5-1 Al Cates in my opinion is the best Arkansas bred trainer and has a first time starter putting on 7 pound apprentice Kelsi Harr. With the 3 furlong works being substantially quicker than the 4 furlong workouts shows me he has her prepped for speed. And since she is a 4 year old I have no problem with her making her first start here at Oaklawn since it is 3 year olds and up.
2 Cinnafrijole 3-1 even though I can’t pronounce this horses name, I still like her. Last time out I think it was a prep off of a 14 day turn around, I still think they wanted to win she was bet down to 9-2 odds and that isn’t a horse that is prepping but I think this was the back up plan. She had traffic in the turn and
Ernie Witt bred, owns and trains her so there isn’t much money put into her off the breeding and since he is training for himself. I don’t like that she is a 3 year old facing older but that is virtually all that is there now at Oaklawn since she didn’t win first time out.
8 Wild Dez 6-1 she is slow with a 1:14 getting 7th by 13 lengths at 35-1 and now 2nd off the lay off and dropping down once again. She ran 2nd at Oaklawn for state bred 50,000 last year and 3rd for 25,000 as well. Just I think she might need another race before she really gets going but if anyone can get this horse in the winner’s circle its Alex Canchari.
Selections 9-2-8
Bets $2 win and place 9($4)
Race 3 1 1/16th Mile. Clm 20000 Purse $36,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since January 13, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since December 13, 2019 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $20,000
7 Popular Kid 5-2 every time he has been in for a claiming price he has been claimed. Ran for a starter allowance race last time out for 16,000 and finished an average 3rd under Flavian Prat. Now shipping in to the Mid-West for Jerry Hollendorfer for jockey Martin Garcia who has rode quite a few winners for Hollendorfer so far this meet could be a serious contender here for this race. My only thing I am worried about is June layoff to straight in a tag, could be trying to sucker in M&M Racing for a claim which I am sure they are going to be after him.
1 Front Door 7-2 speaking of M&M Racing they have a pretty good contender here in Front Door for Karl Broberg running an okay 3rd for the same condition last time. I am shocked to see them get a horse for 50,000 that is normally not their style they normally get for 16,000 ish range and I think after the first race at Delta Karl was kind of stuck. That was the race they claimed them for now they don’t know where to put him. I think he has every reason to run a fast race trying to close in here just needs to improve a little bit or have someone else worsen which could very possibly happen in this field.
8 Good Good 6-1 ran behind the 1 horse last time out after a pretty decent trip was claimed 2 races ago for 20,000 by Federico Villafranco I don’t know why the former trainer put him in the Delta Mile Stakes that was a terrible idea. Now back where he belongs could run a decent race I don’t know if he can win but I wouldn’t want to talk anyone off him.
Selections 7-1-8
Bets $3 to win 7($3)
Race 4 6 Furlongs MC 16000 Purse $24,000 FOR ARKANSAS BRED (WHICH QUALIFY UNDER RULES GOVERNING ARKANSAS-BREDS) MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.
7 Sailaway and Hide 6-1 has had two bad races and she keeps dropping down in class. 2nd off the layoff which, really, I would have treated her as a first time starter in her last race. She got beat by 13 lengths
and they went a time of 1:14 and change which isn’t promising. If she runs that first race I think she is a legitimate threat at these odds and worth a gamble here.
3 Country Dream 2-1 the best bred horse in the race having Speightstown blood and Exchange Rate pedigree on the dam’s side. Ran 2nd in open company 3 starts ago and the Prime Power numbers have her by far the number 1 pick. Ran 2nd and beat the 7 the 4 the 6 and the 9 last time out, but was the best horse and seems tough to beat here. I just don’t like 2-1 on anyone and I see her being 3-5 or lower.
4 Laneys Love 7-2 after being 18 and 0 might not win but I think is the most likely to be on the board. Only in for a claim 3 times according to the past performances and never been in this cheap and comment line where she beat the 6,7,9 and ran behind the 3 said best rest.(Which isn’t a good sign for me trying to beat them both with the 7.)
Selections 7-3-4
Bets $1exacta box 3,4 3,5 3,6 3,7 3,10($10)
Race 5 1 1/16th Mile. Clm 25000n2L Purse $31,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since January 13, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000, if for $20,000, allowed 2 lbs
I like to see horses that just broke their maidens might be shipping in from Fair Grounds or Turfway or something like that to meet the weight allowance.
3 Napoleon’s Empire 12-1 like I said what I was looking for a horse shipping in off a maiden score and I wrote that before looking at this race. The 3 Napoleon’s Empire ships in for Tom Amoss from Fair Grounds after winning for maiden 30,000 at 4-5 was 4 wide and hard driven by James Graham to score. Now Joe Talamo gets on this horse he could be sneaky, got beat by the 5 at Churchill where the comment says blocked and swerved. And before that had Jose Ortiz where the comment line says couldn’t handle leader which tells me the winner was much the best in that field even though Napoleon was the favorite. I don’t expect 12-1 I think 6-1 or so is a good price.
5 Mica Bay 7-2 just broke his maiden at Chrurchill back in November now 2nd off the claim for Steve Asmussen. My main concern was he was working out at Louisiana Downs and I think they was trying to get him in at Fair Grounds they wind up here at Oaklawn. I think he has every chance to win this race in this spot.
6 Candy Store 5-2 first off the claim from Tom Amoss to Robertino Diodoro who is 25% and 60% on the board. Finished 2nd by 15 lengths last time and only got beat by 1 and ½ lengths to I think a Dallas Stewart horse that is average. If he runs that race last time or improves on any of his former efforts I think he could be tough here but I don’t know if that will happen.
Selections 3-5-6
$2 win $6 show 3($8) $3 win and place 5($6)
Race 6 1 Mile. Alw 8000s Purse $28,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS IN ONE OF THEIR LAST TWO STARTS.
5 Miracle March 8-5 won in a claiming 12,500 race back in 2018 and wasn’t heard from for a year and a half until coming back for 12,500 and got nada. Came back for 8,000 and won at Del Mar, then to Oaklawn for this same condition last time and won by 2 and a half. He might be a little bit older now but fits in this spot perfectly.
2 Mucho Macho Dan 6-1 was claimed 2 races ago at Churchill Downs for 7,500 by 39 percent Oaklawn trainer Robertino Diodoro and that was virtually a starter 8,000 race. Was in for waiver because apparently if your first off claim you can be in for not a tag if you really want to be. He won that race rank going wire to wire and apparently Diodoro wants to keep him and that is why he ends up here in this spot.
1A Opportunistic 4-1 specifically the 1A was in for 5,000 at Mahoning Valley and fought hard to get the victory and was claimed for 10,000 at Arlington 2 races ago. Was claimed 3 races ago from now current trainer Geo Garcia. He doesn’t like the all weather or I think he would be at Turfway.
Selections 5-2-1A
Bets $1 exacta box 1A,5 2,5 3,5 4,5 5,6($10
Race 7 6 Furlongs. Clm 40000n2L Purse $41,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs., Older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $40,000, if for $35,000, allowed 2 lbs
8 Bullion 6-1 you hardly ever see Larry Jones claim one, and he did claim him from the Asmussen barn. Went 5 wide last time, and got beat by the 2 horse last time by 5 lengths. He tried to show speed and clear from an outside post and the 2 tried to show speed but not as much as the 8 and also had a better post than the 8 did last time. There for it made a huge difference in why the 2 beat the 8 last time. Now I think the 8 turns the tables.
5 Box of Chocolates 8-1 Happy(early) Valentine’s Day, shipping in from Turfway Park and ran 3rd there with Alex Canchari and in my opinion raising up in class but shows speed and that is always dangerous. Got beat by a decent above average horse in Grade One at Churchill Downs 2 races ago at 31-1. I think if they go 1:11 and 4 or so he could be very dangerous if they go 1:10 or under he won’t be found. Also fella’s if you need to do some late Valentine’s Day shopping and the store is out of the heart shaped chocolates just buy her a 4 dollar win ticket for you and her one for you just in case he wins and you cash it and one for her and say “here honey I bought you a box of chocolates.” And you wouldn’t be lying.
2 Aqwaam 7-2 former Shadwell horse previously trained by Chad Brown that was a 550,000 dollar purchase and got claimed for 30,000 and got beat 15 lengths to the 5 2 races ago. Was only 7-2 that day but what’s going to change. Well in the again red-hot Robertino Diodoro barn ran 3rd and beat my top pick in this race. But being off for a year lay off straight into a claiming race is not promising I think a must use but surely not a key horse or a horse I want to take a shot on.
Selections 8-5-2
Bets $2 win $6 show 8($8)
Race 8 6 Furlongs. ™‘Alw 86000n1x Purse $86,000 FOR ARKANSAS BRED (WHICH QUALIFY UNDER RULES GOVERNING ARKANSAS-BREDS) FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs., Older,125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since November 13, 2019 Allowed 2 lbs
10 Willow Moon 8-1 light bulb angle-where a horse FINALLY breaks the maiden and the sometimes they figure things out and they come right back and win. Quick as a hiccup, having the lead every race at first call even in open maiden races at Hawthorne. Which yes, it’s Hawthorne but it’s open company and now being 3rd in for state bred could be a very good horse especially at 8-1.
7 Jeri Bella 5-1 this is what made M&M Racing famous to me and where they are not claiming for 30,000 or so claiming a horse for 12,500 or less and coming back for 8,000 and winning and getting claimed and doing it all over. Broberg claimed her for 10,000 at Remington Park and I have a feeling that he had his eyes on her since Prairie Meadows when she won for claiming 7,500 couldn’t claim her for 16,000 ran bad then looked at her for 10,000 and said “wait, I want to see her run.” She ran okay he claimed her next time, came back and stomped Arkie breds.(That is one of the 2 trainers in horse racing I wish I could dig in their minds) Now she becomes a free play for M&M and they could really increase their profits here and if not put her in for 8,000 and wave bye-bye.
4 Savedbyanangel 9-2 broke her maiden last year towards the end of the meet then went on hibernation and now wakes up for this Oaklawn meet just like I am sure most horses will do that are Arkansas breds. Got beat by the 5 last time and does show some speed I know not the 10 horses speed but decent speed. Brisnet picked her first on the Prime Power numbers and the fact she has never been in for a claiming price means she might be a talented Arkansas bred and they don’t want to lose her?
Selection 10-7-4
Bets $2 win $6 show 10($8)
Race 9 6 Furlongs. Clm 6250n1y Purse $22,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE AUGUST 13, 2019. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since June 13, 2019 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since March 13, 2019 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $6,250 (Arkansas Bred Preferred)
4 Chief of Staff 7-2 the only horse in this race with any back class, hey M&M with the profits from the previous race why don’t you guys claim this horse?? Dropping in from 12,500 n1y to 6,250 n1y I think he can at least get a win in this spot. The only horse with over 300,000 in earnings and he has 430,000 earnings over his long career. I remember when he used to be in the Jack Van Burg barn and I remember when he was lightning fast, he isn’t as quick but he can still get the lead in this class I believe.
8 Bubbas Dixie 6-1 this horse is the most interesting horse I have seen in a long time. I like playing poker as much as the next guy with horse racing but this is insane. Okay Carson Mccord and Cecil Borel claimed him for 25,000 and got claimed by Norman McKnight for 32,000 last meet at Oaklawn. Runs 3rd at Indiana Grand for allowance optional 25,000 in for tag. Right keep up now runs 7th for the same condition at Ellis Park fine and dandy right. Runs for claiming 5,000 n2y and lowest by far he has ever been in gets claimed and that gets voided… showed speed and beat one horse and then Norman McKnight sells the horse anyway back to Carson Mccord and Cecil Borel. This horse is confusing and on top of that hasn’t been out since Ellis Park in the summer. And now time for some more poker because coming off a barn change I believe, he is NOT in for a claiming tag….HUH??? Either this horse wins like a champ and you go Cecil Borel is a genius, OR he runs horrible is stupid and I must say Cecil Borel 70% of the time isn’t stupid.
7 Plumbago 3-1 Declan Cannon and Karl Broberg team up here not a normal combination, but I dig it. Especially with Declan running 2nd to a draw away winner last time in a Tom Amoss speed ball in Lewey’s Vaporizer and beat the 4 horse last time. He is a check grabber runs a lot of 2nd 3rds and 4ths I don’t like 3-1 at all think he will be 6-1 or higher not a good horse to bet out right but good to use in exacta’s and tri’s.
Selections 4-8-7
Bets $2 win and place 4($4)
Thank you for reading! I hope this gets you and me winners the total amount is $67. Last week my bets did horrible but my selections did pretty good I hope too this gives you handicappers clarity and something to look off of when betting a card. My most logical winning top pick is in race 6, and my best bet is in race 5… There is a huge difference in the 2 things because the 6th race won’t pay much but I think race 5 could be difficult but for those odds I think that is the best bet. Lastly any questions, comments, thoughts on the card please tweet me on twitter @dennis_trusty. Or you can also tweet or comment on the article @TheDailyGallop on twitter.