1st: 2-7-3
In a route race with two clear front-runners, my experience has been that it is more likely one horse gets a clear lead and both horses rate, giving both a good chance, than it is for the two of them to hook up in a speed duel. Couch Trainer is the inside speed so I am giving him the edge over Yankton, who disappointed at 4/5 last time but figures off his other races.
If those two do hook up, Patch’s Light could get first run. He’s been overmatched this meet. Trainer Michael Campbell is winless at the meet. Such trainers often find a way to the winner’s circle near the end of the meet.
2nd: 4-8-1
Pearlthirtyeight doesn’t look like much in the form, but he is 4 years old, which I consider an advantage in maiden claiming route races. Blinkers off for icy connections looking to avoid the duck.
Lieutenant Powell figures off the numbers, but taking a low price on a 3 year old on the outside in a cheap race isn’t my style.
Storm’s A Suspect has shown good early speed in his two races and is a contender if he can get the distance.
3rd: 6-2-7
Coleman Rocky has been up against it for one reason or another in all four of his Oaklawn races this year — awkward start last time, overmatched previously, faced lone speed in debut.
Smart Spree is the lone speed and looks good on paper, but he has finished out of the money twice in a row as the chalk and isn’t the same horse that won three races here last year.
Iter also hasn’t matched his previous Oaklawn success but could wake up with the class drop.
4th: 1-2-3
Cash Register is the stronger half of the entry, so if you are playing her make sure you don’t get stuck with slower entrymate Undivided.
Absolute Love beat winners last time. Most of the field has just a maiden win.
Carolina Beach was an easy winner last out and has a couple sharp workouts since.
5th: no opinion
6th: 4-3-5
Glory Stars beat similar field last time. Not an imaginative pick but can’t get around him.
Summer Revolution is a contender off his recent form, but shows races from 2016 on the page. I’m suspicious of such delicate horses holding their form.
Scrutinizer was a midstretch factor at a big price last time but is most likely pointing for Iowa-bred races at Prairie Meadows later this year.
7th: no opinion
8th: 5-7-3
Nuclear Option has won three times at the meet and never been favored. Those conditions repeat today.
Prince Guilherme hasn’t lived up to his two-year-old promise when he appeared to be a Kentucky Derby contender. A repeat of his best recent races puts him right there today, though.
Mr. Jagermeister also figures off his best but is most likely looking to dominate Minnesota-bred races at Canterbury this summer.
9th: 11-1-7
Broke In a Flash raced on the boggy inside Arkansas Derby day versus better.
Guitarzan ran well enough last time but Brush Country ran off with the race. Has shown promise in brief career.
Globus, a $340,000 purchase, has yet to beat a horse in two races. I don’t like expensive horses running for 90% less than their purchase price as a rule, but this class drop makes sense.