1st: 6-3-1
Marshall Hill showed improved speed while wide versus better in his second out and has a good workout since.
Big Trip did not respond well to experiment with blinkers.
Cape County faded going two turns and should appreciate return to sprint.
2nd: no opinion
3rd: no opinion
4th: 9-5-6
Spunky Town is the clear early leader and dangerous when unchallenged. Scratched from two tougher spots for this. The 20-1 morning line looks overly generous.
Run Wrightaway is a contender off the figures, but horses dropping in class immediately after a claim rarely produce their best form.
Linda Listen is an honest sort.
5th: 6-1-3
Tarpy’s Zipper, like Spunky Town, figures to set the pace and is a threat when allowed to do so.
Forze Mau has faced three winners in a row that went on to win their next starts too. I wouldn’t expect that pattern to repeat with this weaker field.
Diamondmaze has shown early speed in routes and may appreciate the return to a sprint.
6th: 6-2-3
Pearlthirtyeight can get the distance and may appreciate the class drop. I prefer 4 year olds to 3 year olds in route races early in the year. His trainer and jockey are a combined 26: 0-0-1 at the meet, but I am more tolerant of cold connections in state-bred maiden claiming races than elsewhere.
Gone Dancing has shown promise sprinting and might not disappoint in his first route race. Sharp workout.
Babadook is an obvious contender but I hate taking 6/5 on blinkered maiden claimers.
7th: 1-9-8
Superior’s Boy won the only route race he attempted (albeit on the turf) and should be in good position stalking the leaders from the inside.
Downtowner pressed a suicidal pace last time. Doubt they will employ the same strategy, but if they are more judicious early he could be hung wide on the first turn.
Long Gray Line has failed to make up ground in his last two versus similar but may find a faster pace setup today.
8th: 8-7-2
The horses that faced Arkansas-bred champ Hoonani Road are my picks here. K.J.’s Nobility did so twice and goes for new connections today.
Weast Hill figures to control the early pace but his days of being a winning machine at Oaklawn have passed.
Rock City Roadhog (and Guska Mon Shoes) are hard-knocking older horses that haven’t lost many steps.
9th: 3-5-6
New Year’s Luck faced older horses last time and has a couple of sharp workouts since.
Rising Star is more like a falling star as he has not lived up to his $325,000 purchase price, but he made a mid-race move last time versus better.
Ronamo will be running late