Rebel Stakes day! What a Saturday! The return of Game Winner and the awaited 2019 debut of Improbable! Let’s get some winners home and enjoy the day! A few stronger opinions on the card as well as some price shopping mingled in.
I always love talking horses and handicapping. If I see anything during the race day follow me on Twitter @ BoxEmandBetEm and I’ll add up to minute info at Oaklawn Park.
Good luck and good racing!
Race 1) 2-1-4
Looking to the inside with the top two choices here, going to side with the one start Asmussen charge, shipping in from the Fair Grounds. Plenty of speed to get in the race early, go to jock Santana, will send and get into a nice position. #1, Breaking News, should tuck in right off the speed to his outside. This one lost to a nice colt two back, should acquit himself well here. Ludington, #4, had trip issues at first asking and should benefit from that race.
Race 2) 6-9-8
Tales of War won last out at 1 3/16 and appears to be in great form coming out of that race. I look for this one to run well again. He should sit mid pack with every chance to run them down in the lane. Yeowzer goes turf to dirt for Broberg a 24% angle; had a maintenance work coming into this. #8, Ship Stalker, drops in class, and should be on the engine. If this one can relax early has every chance to take this bunch a long way.
Race 3) 9-3-2
Cowboy Diplomacy comes out of live maiden race while running well first out. Comes in here for his second start, for Cox, with Ortiz taking the mount on the stretch out, lots to like Plug and Play, #3, adds the hood after running a solid race at first asking, while stretching out for his second start. Asmussen hits a decent percentage adding blinks the first time. Proverb, #2, caught moisture in the track last out and get a rider upgrade in Rosario here.
Race 4) 5-7-4
Strange seeing Dessman entered here, but with the current racing situation at Santa Anita, Baffert wants to get a race around two turns under his belt to see if he is Triple Crown trail worthy. Drops the hood for this race and should relish the two turns. Second choice, Last Judgement, will also stretch out for Pletcher, he should just sit off the pace for Velazquez, with logical Comedian being the next choice, albeit he’ll have to get faster fig wise to beat the top two.
Race 5) 2-6-7
Monitor third choice in race four as Comedian defeated this one last out. I like the rider switch here and I’m hoping that will help this one get home. Moquett trains Incorrigble as he goes second off the layoff and should be dead fit, while just missing last out against the top choice here. Needless to say this race has a lot going on in terms of familiar faces and jock changes. Honoring Major goes second out here and has every right to improve as well.
Race 6) 2-9-5
Like the top choice here a lot, comes into this race fresh for TAP and has a nice string of drills that appear to have him ready to roll. Will save all the ground and should be tough to run down while rolling for home. Giant Influence is a jail move for a barn that does well off the claim. I’m trying to get this one under at a big price. Dazzling Gem is a hard knocker that has plenty of class to him; Cox is dropping this one in class hoping to find his form after nibbling his last few races.
Race 7) 2-5
Two horse race, 2-5, 5-2, took Midnight Bisou on top as this one runs at her best distance and also benefits of having a race earlier in the year. Certainly, Elate, can win, but I don’t like this one nearly as much outside of NYRA. Use both in multi’s this should be a great race between these two. Be careful of the rail horse as this one can get away if she gets brave as lone speed.
Race 8) 9-8
The first of the split Rebel Stakes and Improbable stands out here. In the case he’s not quite fit to run his race, the logical choice outside of this flashy big colt is Galilean. Improbable has been training well and needs points to get into the gate. Baffert doesn’t ship to Oaklawn for the peanuts and popcorn. I expect Improbable to run well. Galilean has beat up Cal breds, but has done it the right way. He has every right to take the next step forward. If he does, he can stamp himself as a contender heading into the first Saturday in May, but again this race is about the Baffert charge,
Race 9) 8-2-3-6
I’m going to spread here and hope to get a price. I don’t have a very good feel for this race after looking at it for over fifteen minutes. I don’t trust my top pick and the #6 ran his best figs on the slop. There are negatives about all of these, so I’m punching the all button in the late pick four.
Race 10) 5-6-7
The second of the Rebel Stakes races and it appears Baffert has a stranglehold on this race much like the first edition. Certainly one would have a fair argument that the BC Juvenile alumni haven’t run very well in their respective returns. I’m not going to hold that against, Game Winner, as he was much the best on Juvy day. I’m afraid Omaha Beach freaked in the slop which aided his speed fig last out. It took five races to break his maiden as well and couple that with the fact he hasn’t run against much. I don’t like War Front’s on the dirt at all, he can beat me. I’m interested to see how #7, Braintrust runs. I’m a bigger fan of Tax who defeated him last out than most. We will get a better gauge on him as well.
Race 11) 10-8-4
Rumor on the street is that Firecrow is a rocket ship. Nifty has run well both outs, but needs to pick up the pace. #4, #1 and #6 are usable as well.